Fun With Friedman

Yes, it's time for another edition of the Tom Friedman Follies, where we look past the glibness and catchphrases and learn what The Smartest Man In The World has to say. Today, we deconstruct Friedman's comments on what he so cleverly calls "the bin Laden decade."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/opinion/01friedman.html?ref=opinion

Visiting the Middle East last week, and then coming back to Washington, I am left with one overriding impression: Bin Laden really did a number on all of us.

Gee Tom, I'm glad to see the Times's travel budget was put to good use. That's one momentous conclusion you have there.

I am talking in particular about the Arab states, America and Israel — all of whom have deeper holes than ever to dig out of thanks to the Bin Laden decade, 2001 to 2011, and all of whom have less political authority than ever to make the hard decisions needed to get out of the holes.

If only American and Israel could be more like China and not worry about the idiots who populate the country, we could get that political authority back. Of course, the Arab states ARE more like China and it doesn't do them a whit of good.

Let’s start with the Arabs. In 2001, Osama bin Laden attacked the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Just a few months later, in 2002, the U.N. issued the “Arab Human Development Report,” which described the very pathologies that produced Al Qaeda and prescribed remedies for overcoming them. The report, written by Arab experts, said the Arab states suffered from three huge deficits: a deficit of freedom and respect for human rights as the bases of good governance, a deficit of knowledge in the form of decent schooling and a deficit of women’s empowerment.

Wow, the Arab states have dysfunctional societies. This is the cutting edge insights you can only get through Tom Friedman and the UN.


Instead of America and the Arab world making that report their joint post-Bin Laden agenda, they ignored it. Washington basically gave the Arab dictators a free pass to tighten their vise grip on their people — as long as these Arab leaders arrested, interrogated and held the Islamic militants in their societies and eliminated them as a threat to us.

We'd really expect the leaders of the Arab world to press for their society to make liberalizing reforms? What planet do you live on? I also love how it is America's fault that these countries can't get their act together. Is Friedman saying the proper response to 9/11 in 2001 would have been to foment revolution in the Arab world rather than pursue terrorist groups? Somehow, I think this "solution" is not quite politically feasible. Of course, Tom Friedman is so far above the real world that this is irrelevant.

It wasn’t meant as a free pass, and we really did have a security problem with jihadists, and we really didn’t mean to give up on our freedom agenda — but Arab leaders, like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, sensed where our priorities were. That is why Mubarak actually arrested the one Egyptian who dared to run against him for president in his last election, and he and the other Arab autocrats moved to install their sons as successors.

Gee, Mubarak was looking out for himself. I'm shocked. And what would Friedman have suggested the U.S. do? Actively force out Mubarak and allow the Muslim Brotherhood to win elections and reignite conflict with Israel? Oh, wait....

As the Arab leaders choked their people that much tighter, along came Facebook, Twitter and cellphone cameras, which enabled those people to share grievances, organize rebellions, lose their fear and expose their leaders: “Smile, your brutality is on Candid Camera.”

The world is flat, don't you know. If you don't believe me I have a couple of books on the subject.

That’s the good news. The challenging news is that because of the Bin Laden decade, these newly liberated Arab states are in an even deeper hole in terms of economic development, population growth and education. They each have a huge amount of catch-up to do that will require some painful economic and educational reforms.

Yeah, if it wasn't for bin Laden these states would be flowering liberal democracies.

But as one can quickly detect from a visit to Cairo, right now Egypt has a political vacuum and, if anything, is tending toward more populist, less-market-oriented economics. Yet, in return for infusions of cash, Egypt will probably have to accept some kind of I.M.F.-like austerity-reform package and slash government employment — just when unemployment and expectations are now sky high. Right now, no Egyptian party or leader has the authority that will be required to implement such reforms.

There's a shock. You get rid of the thirty year dictator, vow to replace him in a few months, and there's a vacuum? Egypt would be the first country in the history of humanity to try to appease the masses through populist reforms. What do you expect, Tom?

In America, President George W. Bush used the post-9/11 economic dip to push through a second tax cut we could not afford. He followed that with a Medicare prescription drug entitlement we cannot afford and started two wars in the wake of 9/11 without raising taxes to pay for them — all at a time when we should have been saving money in anticipation of the baby boomers’ imminent retirement. As such, our nation’s fiscal hole is deeper than ever and Republicans and Democrats — rather than coming together and generating the political authority needed for us to take our castor oil to compensate for our binge — are just demonizing one another.

Talking points copyright Democratic National Committee, 2004. We need to be China for a day so we can do things right and get rid of the Democrats and Republicans.

As the Israeli political theorist Yaron Ezrahi points out, governance is based on authority “that is generated in one of two ways — by trust or by fear. Both of those sources of authority are disintegrating right now.” The Arab leaders governed by fear, and their people are not afraid anymore. And the Western democracies governed by generating trust, but their societies today are more splintered than ever.

More splintered than ever? I tend to recall a conflict fought at places like Bull Run, Antietam, and Gettysburg. I guess that wasn't a real splinter, though.

Israel has the same problem. The combination of Yasir Arafat’s foolhardy decision to start a second intifada rather than embrace President Bill Clinton’s two-state peace plan, followed by the rise of Bin Laden, which diverted the U.S. from energetically pursuing the peace process, gave the Israeli right a free hand to expand West Bank settlements. There are now some 500,000 settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

How long has the peace process been with us? Does anybody seriously think that without bin Laden the peace process would have ended in success by now? Of course, those Israeli settlements are the only obstacle to peace.

Absent some amazing Palestinian peace overture, and maybe even with one, I do not see any Israeli leader with enough authority today to pull Israel out of the West Bank. So, for now, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Bin Laden both win: In the short run, Bibi gets to keep the West Bank, with 300,000 Jews occupying 2.4 million Palestinians. And in the long run, Bin Laden helps to destroy Israel as a Jewish democracy.

Because we are expecting an amazing Palestinian peace offer any day. Maybe if the Palestinians would quit launching rockets at Israel and admit its right to exist, the Israeli leadership might have more wiggle room.

For all these reasons, I find myself asking the same question in Cairo, Washington and Jerusalem: “Who will tell the people?” Who will tell the people how deep the hole is that Bin Laden helped each of us dig over the last decade — and who will tell the people how hard and how necessary it will be to climb out?

Easy, the guy in the Times with the mustache, big head, and pensive look.

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How The GOP Should Handle the Medicare Issue, Sound Bite Style

President Obama: Paul Ryan's plan is bad for seniors. It's going to cut off funding for Medicare, and your medical treatment will be cut off and you'll be dying in the streets because Paul Ryan doesn't want you to get the care you need.

GOP Nominee: President Obama has offered no plan for fixing Medicare, so we can only assume that his plan is the status quo. However, the status quo is not an option. Left alone, Medicare will cost over 80% of GDP by 2030. As health care costs go up, fewer and fewer doctors will even accept Medicare patients. You are already seeing this. President Obama's plan is nothing than the effective abolition of Medicare.

It is conservatives that seek to preserve Medicare by making sure seniors get the assistance they need to get health care. We believe in this goal, but we also know we cannot afford to dedicate our entire economy to it. The only way to do this is to lower the cost of health care. The only way to do that is to give you, the consumer, the incentive to find the best value for you. We're so used to someone else paying the bill it will be shock at first, but add the voucher payments and the lower cost of care providers who actually have to compete for your business, and you'll be better off in the end. And yes, those who can will need to bear a greater responsibility for paying their own health care costs. We can save Medicare, but we'll have to learn to live in a different reality.

Can we improve on the Ryan Plan? Of course, and we'll do so. President Obama stands to do nothing and hope a committee in DC can lower costs. Unless you believe in the power of a central planning to make things more efficient, this is the same as abolishing Medicare, and we won't stand for it.

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State of the Day - Michigan

Michigan was originally frontier settled by Yankees who made the state overwhelmingly Republican through the 1920's. The state became an industrial center, first in lumber and then for automobiles, attracting immigrants from abroad and blacks from the South. Democrats surged here in the 1930's as unions flexed their muscles. Democrats dominated here for thirty years and built a large welfare state. The automobile industry collapsed in the 1970's and ever since, Michigan's big manufacturing economy has suffered. The state (with the notable exception of the City of Detroit) recovered as taxes were lowered and union membership declined in the 1980's and 1990's, helping the economy to diversify. However, the auto industry totally collapsed again in the 2000's and the state has essentially been in a recession since 2001. The big three auto companies collapsed under the weight of fuel effiency standards and big union contracts, finally ending in the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler in 2008-2009. Democrats have a big base in what is left of the City of Detroit and the heavily unionized, suffering industrial towns, while Republicans dominate the rest of Outstate Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. The Detroit suburbs hold the balance of power. The balance usually tilts just a bit to the left of center, though Republicans remain very competitive.

2010 was a productive year for Michigan Republicans. They won the open Governor's Mansion easily and took two House seats. For 2012, the GOP aims to win the state for its Presidential nominee and defeat Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Neither will be easy.

Michigan lost population during the last decade and lost a House seat. Republicans will control the redistricting process. They would obviously like to draw out a Democrat, but it will not be easy because the current plan is already a Republican gerrymander. The missing seat should probably come from the Detroit area, but presumably they will need to retain two black majority districts. The area is surrounded by two senior Democrats in safe seats and two marginal seats. Unless Republicans are willing to end the career of Sander Levin or John Dingell, their most likely move would be to target the marginal Ninth District currently held by Democrat Gary Peters. The latest proposal does indeed place Peters in the same district with Levin.


Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes

Michigan has long been near the middle of the American political spectrum, but just enough to the left for George W. Bush to lose it twice while he won narrow national victories. Barack Obama won 57% here, four points better than his national showing. This may the one state where Obama’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler would actually help him. The Republicans could easily win here, however, if they won a decent sized national victory.

Mitt Romney’s father was Governor here, and that could give Romney a boost if he is the nominee. He would certainly be favored in a primary. Romney won the 2008 primary, but only by 39%-30% over John McCain. The state's open primary would probably work against Sarah Palin and her ilk. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Rick Snyder (R)

The economy fishtailed for eight years under Democrat Jennifer Granholm. Democrats offered voters Virg Bernero, who offered more of the same. He was crushed 58%-40% by Snyder. Michigan tilts Democratic, but the problems here are so endemic Snyder may get a decently long rope to try to pull the state out of the depths. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Carl Levin (D)

Levin may see some competition in 2014 if it is a huge Republican year, but otherwise this seat is his for as long as he wants it. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Debbie Stabenow (D)

Stabenow has an advantage, but will probably see strong competition, especially if Barack Obama continues to drag down his party in 2012. Tea Partier Chad Dewey has already announced his candidacy, but Republicans will have to do better than that. Libertarian Scotty Boman is considering the race but he would be a long shot as well. Republicans are currently hoping to recruit Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Dan Benishek (R)

This marginal Upper Peninsula/Northern Michigan seat elected pro-life Democrat Bart Stupak for nine terms before he retired after his controversial role in enabling the health care legislation to pass. This district needs to pick up 63,000 people. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Bill Huizenga (R)

Huizenga easily won this mostly Republican Western Michigan seat when it came open in 2010. It needs to pick up 27,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Justin Amash (R)

Amash is considered a star by many conservatives. He should be fine in this Republican leaning Grand Rapids seat, but his ideological approach may get him in trouble in a Democratic year. His district needs only 28,000 people, which should keep his district friendly. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 - Dave Camp (R)

The new Ways and Means Chairman has iced this marginal Central Michigan seat, even in bad Republican years. Given his position, redistricters won't let anything happen to him. His seat needs 40,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dale Kildee (D)

The Flint based seat needs 71,000 people. While the seat is overwhelmingly Democratic, Kildee only got 53% in 2010. He is a prime target for redistricting. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Fred Upton (R)

Democrats failed to seriously contest this marginal Southwest Michigan seat in the boom Democratic years. Upton should continue on with 51,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Tim Walberg (R)

Walberg held this district for one term, beating a moderate Republican in the primary in 2006. He lost to Democrat Mark Schauer in 2008 but beat him 50%-45% in 2010. Walberg was way too conservative for this swing Southern Michigan seat the first time, and may prove to be again. The seat needs to pick up 44,000 people, which may give the GOP the opportunity to help him. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 8 - Mike Rogers (R)

Like Upton, Rogers easily survived two bad years in a marginal district and is safe going forward. The seat needs only 18,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gary Peters (D)

Peters won this marginal suburban Detroit district in 2008 with a smashing 52%-43% victory over Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg. He survived 50%-47% in 2010 thanks to a ridiculously bad Republican candidate. Peters is in enough trouble as is. He also has a redistricing problem due to his caucasian ethnicity, lack of seniority, and party. he is most likely to lose his seat should redistricters eliminate a Detroit area seat. As of right now Peters would need 54,000 people. The latest Republican proposal essentially eliminates this district and places Peters in a primary with Sander Levin. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Candice Miller (R)

Miller is becoming a force in the House Republican Conference and has had no real competition in this Republican leaning Thumb district. The seat has grown faster than any in the state and is actually about 1,000 people over the equal population standard. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Thaddeus McCotter (R)

McCotter barely beat a poor candidate in 2008 but rebounded to 59% in the big Republican year of 2010. The Suburban Detroit seat needs only 6,000 people. Republicans would ideally like to shore up this very marginal district. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Sander Levin (D)

This heavily Democratic suburban Detroit seat needs 90,000 people. Levin's best asset is his seniority on the Ways and Means Committee. Republicans are currently proposing placing Levin in the same seat as Ninth District Democrat Gary Peters, a race in whihc Levin would be favored. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Hansen Clarke (D)

Clarke won this seat by defeating Carolyn Cheeks "Kwame's Mother" Kilpatrick in the primary. Republicans don't exist in the City of Detroit. The seat has lost 9% of its population in the last decade and needs 118,000 new people. I would still expect two black majority districts to survive, so I would expect to see Clarke in Congress in 2013. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – John Conyers (D)

Conyers easily survived his wife's felony conviction for taking bribes. This Detroit seat needs 103,000 people, but like Clarke he is likely to survive because of the need to keep two black majority districts. Republicans will not be a factor. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – John Dingell (D)

Dingell had an actual race in this very Democratic Suburban Detroit/Ann Arbor seat, but he won 57%-40%. Dingell is unlikely to have problems in redistricting. For one thing, his seat needs the relatively small amount of 24,000 people. Secondly, Dingell is a legendary legislator and a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee. This makes him valuable to local officials, and redistricters will most likely turn their attention to Peters instead. The only change for Dingell will be his district number. SEAT ELIMINATED.

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State of the Day - Massachusetts

Formed in a moment of religious reform and fundamentalism, Massachusetts's role in manufacturing and overseas trade made it the early economic powerhouse of the United States. The state has a rich intellectual tradition, spread by Yankee settlers whose influence can still be seen across the country, especially in the Upper Midwest. After mass Irish immigration began in the mid-19th century, Massachusetts politics was a battle between Yankee Protestant Republicans and Irish Catholic Democrats for the better part of a century. Back then, it was the Republican Party that carried the torch of Massachusetts' liberal progressive tradition. Irish Catholics grew in number and by the mid-20th century, they had turned Massachusetts into one of the most Democratic states. The Kennedy dynasty helped influence Protestants to vote Democratic as well. Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern, the state has generally pursued liberal policies (remember Willie Horton and weekend furloughs?), and the most notable politicians here have all been confirmed liberals: Michael Dukakis, Edward Kennedy, John Kerry. However, the economy collapsed in the late 1980's and the state elected fiscally conservative Republican William Weld as Governor. Over the next sixteen years under four Republican Governors, the economy improved but the state continued to be quite liberal, even passing a preview of ObamaCare (RonmneyCare, if you will) on the state level in 2006. The economy has slowed down again over the last ten years and Massachusetts lost another seat in the 2010 Census. There is a consensus here on cultural liberalism and the state was the first to approve gay marriage. While this was controversial at first, the policy has generally been confirmed by subsequent elections. Massachusetts is now almost a unanimously Democratic state, with the notable exception of Republican Senator Scott Brown's victory in the January 2010 special election to replace Edward Kennedy.

In 2010, Democratic Governor Deval Patrick found himself in trouble with very low approval ratings. However, opposition to him split and Patrick managed to improve his standing somewhat, winning with 49%. Democrats continued to maintain a lock on the House delegation. Barack Obama will obviously win Massachusetts in 2012. The big race here will involve Scott Brown's attempt to win a full term in the Senate.

Massachusetts lost one seat in redistricting. The Democrats will control redistricting, but the process will be tricky. Population growth has been relatively uniform. If somebody retires or runs for the Senate, their district will probably be broken up and apportioned to other members. This is especially true of Michael Capuano's district, which is centered around Boston, touches four separate districts, and has the smallest population. You have to figure safe seats will remain for senior Democrats Ed Markey and Barney Frank. Tenth District Rep. Bill Keating is the most junior and has the least Democratic district, but it includes the Cape Cod area and will be difficult to dismantle. Barring a retirment, the outcome will have more to do with local politics on Beacon Hill than anything else.


President – 11 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama did a tad worse here than you might have expected in 2008, which I ascribe to the state’s disgust with the very similar Deval Patrick. Even so, Obama won 62% and I cannot imagine that Massachusetts will be competitive in 2012. The primary here will be on March 6, barring a change in the law, which will probably prove too late to matter. If it does, one presumes the state will favor Mitt Romney, though his 51%-41% win here over John McCain in 2008 was hardly impressive. Still, Massachusetts is not likely to vote for an identifiable social conservative, so it's hard to see someone like Sarah Palin beating Romney. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Deval Patrick (D)

After several missteps, Patrick entered 2010 with dismal job approval ratings. However, he got a huge break with the entry of former Democrat Timothy Cahill as an Independent, effectively splitting the anti-Patrick vote. Still, Patrick managed to pick himself up enough to win with 49%, so he probably would have won anyway. Patrick's four immediate predecessors did not make it to the end of a second term, so I had to look and see if the state had passed a term limit law since Michael Dukakis's time. It has not. If Republicans could not get Patrick in 2010, it will be hard to do so in 2014. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – John Kerry (D)

Kerry’s longtime colleague, Edward Kennedy, spent the first eighteen years of his career as something of a dilettante in the Senate. Only after finally losing his ambitions for the White House did Kennedy dedicate himself to the Senate and become a legend in that body. Kerry was not a particularly accomplished Senator for four terms, angling first for the White House and then Secretary of State. Still finding himself in the Senate, he seems newly determined to become a major player and active legislator in the Senate, much like Kennedy. He’s certainly safe in Massachusetts in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Scott Brown (R)

Brown’s January 2010 victory to replace the late Edward Kennedy was a true "Bloomberg" (a perfect political storm allowing a candidate to win who otherwise would have no chance). First, the election would not have even occurred had Massachusetts Democrats not messed with the law in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a successor to John Kerry. As it happened, the election took place at a low point for the Democratic Party. It also coincided with the culmination of the debate on the health care bill, which was unpopular even in Massachusetts. Coincidentally, Brown could maximize that issue since he would be the 41st, filibuster holding vote against the bill in the Senate. Brown also came up against a woefully horrible performance by Democrat Martha Coakley, who memorably thought Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankee. To top it off, Brown was a good candidate himself.

Brown will still be a good candidate in 2012, but the rest of the perfect storm should have dissipated. Brown has done everything right and has given himself a chance, continuing to poll well. So far, Democrats have produced only two weak candidates: Newton Mayor Setti Warren and Alan Khazei. Democrats hope to find a better candidate, such as Reps. Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey, or Consumer Protection Czare Elizabeth Warren. If Democrats can attract one of these candidates, Brown faces long odds to win in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – John Olver (D)

This West Massachusetts seat is safely Democratic. The seat needs to pick up 76,000 people, but with its location it will be difficult to draw the districts in a way that does not leave Olver in good shape. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Richard Neal (D)

This Springfield based seat is not totally safe for the Democrats, and Neal sank to 57% this year. It needs to pick up 63,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jim McGovern (D)

See the previous entry, but substitute Worcester for Springfield and it needs 67,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Barney Frank (D)

Frank shockingly had to campaign for this overwhelmingly Democratic Suburban Boston/South Massachusetts seat, thanks to a horrible Democratic year and his own embarrassing role in the financial collapse. His 54%-43% was by far his worst during his long tenure. His seat needs 56,000 people, but with his seniority redistricters won't leave him out in the cold. Still, he could continue to see races if he remains a figure of controversy. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Niki Tsongas (D)

This Lowell based seat is not hopeless for Republicans and Tsongas was not impressive in winning it in a 2007 special election. While her fundraising was weak, doubly so considering her pedigree (she is the widow of former Senator Paul Tsongas), she survived 55%-42% thanks in large part to a terrible Republican candidate. Her seat needs 70,000 and she will be doing some suppliant lobbying on Beacon Hill this year. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – John Tierney (D)

Some national Republicans talked up this mostly Democratic Northeast Massachusetts seat after Tierney's wife pleaded guilty to tax fraud. Republicans nominated a guy who had made statements that made him appear to be a "birther", which didn't help. Tierney won 57%-43%. This seat needs 70,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – Edward Markey (D)

This heavily Democratic North Boston based seat needs 74,000 people. Markey is a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee, so redistricters will make sure he is okay, leaving him free to spend too much time on your television screens this fall. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Michael Capuano (D)

I used to live in this Cambridge based district. I was a Democrat then, and I would guarantee that I was in the right 10% of the political spectrum here. The seat needs 100,000 people, and would probably be the easiest in the state to eliminate. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Stephen Lynch (D)

South Bawston isn't a very good place for Republicans. This seat is relatively populous, needing only 54,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Bill Keating (D)

This Suburban Boston/Cape Cod seat is the most Republican in Massachusetts, but it still leans Democratic. Scott Brown won this district in a landslide, however. Keating ran as a pretty generic Democrat for this open seat last year. The Republican candidate had some personal issues and could not unite his party. Keating pulled off an unimpressive 47%-42% victory. Keating should face tough competiton next time as well. The seat needs to pick up 77,000 people, but its location in the far eastern part of the state makes it difficult to eliminate. SEAT ELIMINATED.

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On Leadership

Last Sunday on the next to last day of the regular session, the Texas House of Representatives debated the final version of its budget. As one might expect from a body with a 101-49 GOP majority, the Legislature dealt with a shortfall of over $20 billion without raising taxes. While about $10 billion of the difference was made up with accounting gimmicks and postponing certain appropriations, the budget involved serious cuts, particularly in the area of public education.

Near the end of the debate, a freshman Republican from Wichita Falls named Lanham Lyne rose to speak. He said that the education cuts were unpalatable and he didn't believe they were the best thing for the State of Texas. Lyne said as a candidate, he was frankly ignorant as to the state's budgetary issues and how education worked in the state. His voters wanted spending cuts, but Lyne wondered aloud if his voters understood the difference between state and federal spending. He suggested they did not, and this ignorance was leading to poor state policymaking. Still, Lyne said his voters wanted spending cuts. Thus, he felt obliged to vote for the budget.

I greatly respect Lyne for being so honest. The sentiment is somewhat widespread among legislative Republicans, even though nobody wants to admit it. We think of our elected officials as leaders, but too often today this is not the case. Watching the Texas Legislature in action, one has seen Republicans running scared from primary voters and far right special interest groups. I suspect quite a few Republicans had issues with what was going on, but nobody said anything.

This isn't leadership. Yes, legislators must represent the interests of their constituents. But a legislator must know those interests by knowing his district. He cannot simply take uninformed slogans as use them as an excuse to not act in their best interests. A legislator should not commit political suicide, but neither should a legislator be afraid to stand up and explain why he acted in the best interest of his constituents.

Leaders aren't scared of their constitutents, and they aren't scared of any interest groups. Leaders have the courage to know when not to take the easy way out, but when to stand up and defend themselves for doing the right thing. We don't have enough leadership in this country right now, and we are the worse for it.This is the rest of the post

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State of the Race - 5/28/11

President Obama loses a point of his post-Osama bounce. We also see another state agree on a map for the 2012 House races

Off to the races!


President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Rick Perry is the big mover this week as he expressed his first direct potential in the race. I still think he will not run, however.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Sarah Palin of Alaska
5. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
6. Governor Rick Perry of Texas
7. Herman Cain of Georgia
8. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
9. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
10. Rudy Giuliani of New York
11. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama sees his approval rating fall back to 52%. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 357 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 287 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are project to go Republican. The closest states are the current projection is Florida and Virginia.

Safe Obama (84)
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (81)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Washington

Lean Obama (86)
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (81)
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (25)
Missouri
North Carolina

Lean Romney (55)
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
South Carolina
West Virginia

Likely Romney (83)
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe Romney (43)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

No changes this week.

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and three Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being two.

Safe Democrat (3)
Delaware (Jack Markell)
Kentucky (Steve Beshear)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (0)

Lean Republican (3)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Likely Republican (1)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 17

Senate

No changes this week.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

This map includes the new map in Louisiana, joining Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa as states that have completed redistricting. The rest of the states are projections. Missouri has also complete redistricting but I have not reviewed the map yet.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. For instance, Steve King will run in IA-4 as the current incumbent there, Tom Latham, runs against Leonard Boswell in IA-3. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a six seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 42 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (101)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono retiring)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (28)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (36)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (Kathy Hochul)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-2 (Todd Akin retiring)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham retiring)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
ND-AL (Rick Berg retiring)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 190

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State of the Day - Maryland

Maryland is and has always been a little bit of both North and South. Politically, it has produced quite a few colorful characters. It has changed over the past century from a manufacturing and fishing state centered on Baltimore to a suburban state. Baltimore still dominates the state in many ways and is the driver behind the state's long Democratic tradition. Democrats are also helped by a 29% African-American population that votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The Washington suburbs in Montgomery and Prince George's County have become heavily Democratic as well. Maryland is now one of the most Democratic states and that does not look likely to change any time soon. The state's safe Democratic majority produces many influential Democrats such as Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer.

Republicans did have one success in 2010, as Andy Harris won the heavily Republican First District that he managed to lose to the Democrats in 2008. Aside from that, however, Maryland continued to be one of the bluest states. Republicans had hoped former Governor (2003-2007) Robert Ehrlich could mount a strong challenge for his old job, but he fizzled and lost a second straight rout to O'Malley. The GOP never threatened Mikulski.

Democrats will control redistricting. The current districts are already a partisan gerrymander, with bizarre boundaries designed to pack the maximum number of Republicans into safe GOP districts (one of which the Democrats managed to win anyway in 2008). That's probably the best Democrats could do, so expect them to pursue the status quo. Population has grown faster in the Republican areas than the rest of the state, so the Second and Third Districts may become a bit more Republican, but not enough to seriously threaten the current incumbents.


President – 10 Electoral Votes

Maryland has not come close to going Republican since George H.W. Bush won it a generation ago. Only in a Republican landslide will the final result here look even somewhat respectable.

The primary here will be February 14, 2012, the week after Super Tuesday. This could make it an important state if there is still a race. Theoretically, Mitt Romney should do well here although there is certainly an opening for a more socially conservative candidate. An underfunded Mike Huckabee won 29% here in 2008 even though it was obvious by that point John McCain would be the nominee. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Martin O’Malley (D)

Entering 2010 O'Malley had middling approval ratings and Republicans were psyched about a comeback attempt by former Governor Robert Ehrlich, whom O'Malley had defeated in 2006. Ehrlich's campaign faded before it even began, however, and O'Malley won a resounding 56%-42% victory. Term limits will end his tenure in 2014. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Barbara Mikulski (D)

Mikulski stomped token Republican Eric Wargotz in 2016. She has this seat as long as she wants it. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Ben Cardin (D)

Cardin needed a good Democratic wind to defeat Michael Steele (remember when he was hot?) for this seat in 2006. Steele is considering a rematch. However, there is no reason to believe that Steele (whose credibility is totally shot by now), or anybody else, could mount a serious challenge in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Andy Harris (R)

The Eastern Shore seat in Maryland should never vote for a Democrat, but it did in 2008. The very conservative Harris challenged and defeated moderate Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary. Gilchrest endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil, who capitalized on the Republican fissures and the Demcoratic wave to defeat Harris 49%-48%. Harris returned in the very Republican 2010 and Kratovil had no chance, losing 55%-41%. Harris should prove hard to oust. The district needs to lose 14,000 people, which will only make it more Republican. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

The Baltimore area district isn’t totally Democratic, but Ruppersberger appears safe. The seat needs to pick up 15,000 people, which will probably be Republicans from the first district, but it should not matter to Ruppersberger. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – John Sarbanes (D)

This Baltimore seat leans Democratic. Sarbanes has one of the most recognizable names in Maryland politics and does not look beatable. The district needs to pick up only 1,000 people, so it should remain basically unchanged. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Donna Edwards (D)

This black majority Prince George's/Montgomery seat won't be voting Republican anytime soon. It needs to pick up 21,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Steny Hoyer (D)

Hoyer may never get past Nancy Pelosi in the House, but he won't lose this safely Democratic Southern Maryland seat. It actually needs to lose 43,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R)

Bartlett never bothers to fundraise much, but it does not matter in this heavily Republican Western Maryland district. The seat needs to lose 23,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Elijah Cummings (D)

This Baltimore seat needs 39,000 people. If every single one of them voted Republican it still would not matter. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D)

Van Hollen just finished two cycles as chair of the DCCC. In 2008, he was a genius. In 2010, he was an idiot. Or, maybe election results have little to do with the DCCC chair. Van Hollen rebounded nicely, and is currently the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee. He will have no problem holding this overwhelmingly Democratic Montgomery County seat. This district should remain essentially unchanged, only needing to pick up about 4,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

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State of the Day - Maine

Maine is historically a prototypical Yankee state but in recent years, it has shown a contrarian streak in politics with a preference for third party candidates. In the past twenty years, it has shifted from agriculture and small manufacturing to tourism and high tech. While the economy on the coast has been humming, the interior of the state has been in steep decline and on the whole Maine has the oldest population in the country. Maine leans a bit to the left of the center but is generally independent and unpredictable. It last voted Republican for President in 1988 and routinely elects Democratic House members, but it elected an independent as Governor twice in the 1990's, loves its two liberal Republican Senators, and the Legislature is very volatile. Locally, the primary issue involves potential development or environmental protection of the northern forests.

This past election was prototypical Mainer affair. Democrats held the two House seats, but Republicans managed to win the Governor's Mansion thanks in large part to a very strong third party candidate who nearly won the election. Maine may be contested in the 2012 election, especially since it splits its Electoral Votes by Congressional District. Republican Senator Olympia Snowe is probably invulnerable to a Democratic challenge, but may face a primary challenge from conservatives angry with her frequent footsie with Democrats.

Republicans technically control redistricting, but in reality they don't. There is a bipartisan redistricting board that redraws boundaries, but the Legislature can pass its own plan with a 2/3 majority. Republicans do not have such a majority, so the most likely scenario is a plan that merely shifts 9,000 people from the First to the Second District. It's not clear that the Republicans could do any better even if they tried.

Oddly, Maine does its redistricting in the second cycle after the Census. Thus, redistricting is not scheduled to occur in 2013, so the 2012 elections will take place under the current map. This is blatantly unconstitutional, but in the past nobody cared. However, a lawsuit was filed on this point in March which will probably result in redistricting taking place before the next election. For U.S. House purposes, it won't matter.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

Maine is a good Democratic state, but in a mirror image of 2008, a Republican would have about 50-50 odds of winning it. Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each Congressional district. The Second District is about five points more Republican than the first district, meaning that the Republican would likely win one electoral vote if he could get within about six points of the Democrat statewide.

Maine does not have a presidential primary. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Paul LePage (R)

LePage is too conservative for Maine and seemed to have some personal problems during the campaign, answering questions about alleged ethical and financial troubles. He sometimes reacted poorly to such questions. However, Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell never got on track either. Independent Eliot Cutler, a former aide to Jimmy Carter, stepped into the breach and nearly won the election. LePage held on with 38%, 37% for Cutler and a pathetic 19% for Mitchell.

LePage began his term by appointing his 22 year old daughter to a position for which she seemed to have no qualifications. He then proceeded to pick a fight with labor unions over a mural in the Capitol and told the NAACP to "kiss his butt". It was then revealed that LePage has homestead exemptions in both Maine and Florida. He has begun to be heckled at town hall meetings. I suspected LePage would easily be a train wreck, and so far I'm right. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Olympia Snowe (R)

Snowe may be the most popular figure in Maine and she does not look beatable in 2012. Her bigger problem would be a Republican primary. She has two announced Tea Party challengers, Scott D'Amboise and Andrew Dodge. Snowe should survive if the Tea Party vote splits between them. If the Tea Party managed to beat Snowe, they will essentially be gifting this seat to the Democrats. If Snowe survives, she'll win easily in November. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Susan Collins (R)

Long thought vulnerable by Democrats, she stomped a strong Democratic challenger in a terrible Republican year in 2008. Unlike Snowe, however, she will probably face more strong competition. She could also expect a primary challenge from the right. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Chellie Pingree (D)

This Southern Maine seat is the more Democratic of the two, though it is not impossible for the GOP to win here. Since Pingree was a freshman in a bad Democratic year, she showed up on some GOP target lists. However, Republicans nominated firebrand Dean Scontras, who never had a chance. Pingree won 57%-43%. That should be a lesson for Republicans looking to take down Olympia Snowe. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Michael Michaud (D)

This northern Maine seat should be a winnable seat for the GOP, but Michaud has won reelection easily. He had some competition after making some very unpopular high profile votes. Still, on the whole Michaud's socially conservative, pro-union voting record fits very well here. Republicans nominated extremist Jason Levesque, which didn't work out. Michaud won by an impressive 55%-45%. Again, anti-Snowe Republicans should take note of the result. Michaud will be difficult to beat. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

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State of the Day - Louisiana

Louisiana, with its charm, corruption, and horrendous public policy problems, is politically in a netherworld between the Deep South and a Latin American banana republic. The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 may just totally remake this fragile society. Despite the obvious vulnerability of New Orleans, Louisiana's leadership and political culture totally failed to prepare for or react to the storm. The incident destroyed the reputations of President George W. Bush and Democratic Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. In reality, blame goes back generations and through all levels of government. The state was originally a colony of Spain and France (whose Napoleonic Code still forms the basis of law here), and has always relied on natural resources. Governor (1928-1932) and Senator (1932-1935) Huey Long might have been the most unabashedly populist political figure in American history, and his legacy still affects the state to this day. Since then the politics here has centered around Longs or their ilk (Earl and Russell Long, Edwin Edwards) and rarely victorious reformers (David Treen, Buddy Roemer, Bobby Jindal), and the state has fallen behind. Oil fueled a boom in the 1970's and bust during the 1980's, and since then gambling and tourism have played major roles. Population growth has been very slow and the New Orleans area lost population after Katrina. The state has become quite Republican in national elections, though personality is still more important than party on the state and local level. Still, the balance seems to be shifting toward Republicans. National Republicans do better in the Western part of the state, but Bobby Jindal's base vote came in the New Orleans suburbs. Jindal seems to be the first reform Governor to succeed, and this trend could change Louisiana politics.

In 2010, Democrats did reclaim the Second District House seat they lost under fluke circumstances in 2008. However, despite a strong challenger in the form of Rep. Charles Melancon, Democrats couldn't come close to knock off prostitution tainted Senator David Vitter. To add insult to injury, Republicans easily captured Melancon's House seat. Jindal looks to be a shoo-in for reelection later this year, and Democrats seem to have no chance at a breakthrough in 2012.

Redistricting was split between the Democratic legislature and Governor Jindal. Louisiana lost a seat. The final map protected the black majority Second District and essentially cut up the Third District, probably forcing freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Landry into a primary against Reps. Charles Boustany (currently the Seventh District incumbent) or Rep. Steve Scalise (First District). The other Republicans should be find, and the end result should be a 5-1 Republican majority.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

Louisiana has generally voted Democratic for President as long as the Democrats nominated somebody that could at least pass for a “good ‘ol boy”. Louisiana is more Republican now, and Democrats don’t look likely to nominate someone like that anytime soon. Louisiana's primary is the Saturday after Super Tuesday, so it may matter if the race becomes prolonged. I'd definitely pick a socially conservative candidate over Romney, if any get that far. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bobby Jindal (R)

Jindal has high approval ratings and no obvious challenger. This is unlikely to go to a runoff in 2011. The only Democrats who have been publicly mentioned running are Caroline Fayard, who just lost badly in a special election for Lieutenant Governor and subsequently bowed out, and former Governor (2004-2008) Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who was so unpopular she couldn't run for reelection. This race is unlikely to reach a runoff in Louisiana's unique "jungle primary", and Jindal may not even see real opposition. Jindal pointedly refused to endorse Senator David Vitter and would probably be in strong shape to challenge him in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mary Landrieu (D)

In three elections, Landrieu has either had a miserable opponent or a huge Democratic year. Even so, she has never topped 52%. Her luck will run out at some point, very possibly 2014. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – David Vitter (R)

Vitter got caught using the services of a prostitute. This hardly makes him unique among Louisiana politicians, but it still promised to cause him some consternation. However, 2010 was a year that no Democrat could have won this seat, no matter what Vitter did. Governor Bobby Jindal refused to endorse Vitter, and in so doing left open the possibility that he could challenge and defeat Vitter in 2016. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Steve Scalise (R)

This Suburban New Orleans seat was one of the first places in the South to go Republican, and it remains heavily so. Redistricting essentially combined this seat with about a quarter of the Third District. It lost part of the northern area of the district in Washington and Tangipanoa Parishes, while gaining some of New Orleans and most of five parishes south of Lake Ponchartrain and on the Gulf Coast: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, Laforche, and Terrebonne. The end result is to make it actually a bit more Republican, if that's even possible. Third District Rep. Jeff Landry is said to be leaning toward running against Charles Boustany in the new Third, although it would also be reasonable for him to run here. Either way, Landry is an underdog. If Landry goes elsewhere, Scalise is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Cedric Richmond (D)

This black majority New Orleans seat actually went Republican in 2008 due to a series to flukes that combined for one of the oddest election results of modern time. It easily went back to the Democrats in 2010 and won't be going Republican again any time soon. The area was decimated by Hurricane Katrina and had to expand, moving west to take in parts of St. John, St. James, Assumption, Ascension, and Iberville Parishes all the way to West and East Baton Rouge. This keeps the district black majority, although not quite as Democratic as before. Obama still got 73% in the new lines however, so Richmond should continue on his merry way. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jeff Landry (R)

Democrat Charles Melancon vacated this Southeast Louisiana seat to run for the Senate. The seat has become heavily Republican so it was no surprise that Landry beat a strong Democrat 64%-36%. Unfortunately for Landry, he probably lost his seat in redistricting. Most of its territory to the east is taken away: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Lafourche, St. John the Baptist, St. James, Ascension, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes. Instead, the seat picks up most of the current Seventh District: Lafayette, Acadia, Vermilion, Cameron, Calcasieu, and a small part of St. Landry Parishes. This makes it more of a Southwest Louisiana seat while making it somehow less Democratic than it was. The district is more than 75% made of voters from the current Seventh, putting Landry at a huge disadvantage against Boustany. Democrats won't matter in any event. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – John Fleming (R)

Democrats somehow came within 350 votes of winning this Northwest Louisiana safe Republican seat in 2008, and probably would have won it had the election taken place in November instead of December. The district gets a rather minor makeover. It loses Grant Parish but gains Union Parish in the north and gains Allen, Evangeline, and about half of St. Landry Parish in the south. The changes make no real difference. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Rodney Alexander (R)

How on Earth did Alexander win this Northeast Louisiana seat as a Democrat in 2002? Louisiana is changing and the conservative Democrats are dying off pretty quickly. This seat also doesn't change much. It loses Grant, Allen, and Evangeline Parishes in the West, but picks up St. Landry Parish and moves east of the Mississippi to take in parts of West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa, and Washington Parishes, stretching all the way to the far eastern part of the state. The changes don't the balance here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bill Cassidy (R)

Democrats somehow managed to win a special election in this normally solid Republican Baton Rouge area district in 2008 thanks to the candidacy of serial loser Woody Jenkins, but the GOP won this seat back by a 48%-40% margin in November. Democrat Don Cazayoux might have won had African-American State Senator Michael Jackson not received 12% as a third party candidate. The success was fleeting, because Democrats did not answer the bell here in 2010.

Much of the black population was taken out to shore up the Second District and this one goes from a safe Republican seats to one of the most Republican seats in the nation. To make up the population it picked up heavily Republican Pointe Coupee Parish and parts of Iberville, Assumption, Terrebonne, and Lafourche Parishes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Charles Boustany (R)

In yet another example of the death of Louisiana conservative Democrats, this Southwest Louisiana seat was held by conservative Democrat through in 2004 and nearly retained in that year.

This seat has been abolished and most of it will be in the Third District for 2012. SEAT ELIMINATED.

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State of the Day - Kentucky

Kentucky is a very white state with a large rural and blue collar population that is suspicious of powerful government, much like it was when it entered the Union in 1792. While the tobacco industry is declining, Kentucky still lacks a "twenty-first century style economy" based heavily on tech and service industries. Growth here has been slow and a very high percentage of residents here are native born. Democrats have always been dominant here and still do well in state elections, but on the Presidential level, Kentucky has become reliably Republican. The GOP now holds both Senate seats, four of the six Congressional seats, and the state Senate.

The big story here in 2010 was the victory of the doctrinaire libertarian and Tea Partier Rand Paul as a Republican for the Senate. Still, considering the circumstances Democrats did okay. Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth easily held the seat he won from a Republican in 2006. The other Democratic Representative, Ben Chandler, survived an extremely unfriendly situation. Kentucky should be a rock solid state against Barack Obama in 2012, however.

Redistricting will be split in 2011. The smart money is on a plan that makes minor changes to meet the equal population standard, but does not noticeably shift the political situation.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

Kentucky (along with West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas) has fallen totally out of reach for Democrats just a decade after twice voting for Bill Clinton. Kentucky’s May 22, 2012 primary is highly unlikely to play any role in determining the GOP nominee. If it did that would mean there was a two person race, and if that happened I would pick whichever candidate is not Mitt Romney. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Steve Beshear (D)

Beshear’s victory in 2007 had more to do with the ethical problems of his opponent, Governor Ernie Fletcher, than anything positive Beshear did. His approval ratings have been all over the place during his term, but have seemed to stabilize over 50%. Republicans had a three way primary, which was won by State Senate President David Williams with 48% of the vote.

Polling places Beshear in pretty good shape with over 50% of the vote with Williams stuck in the mid 30's. The only threat to Beshear that I see is his party label, but that should be muted in the "off-off" year election and Kentucky still elects many Democrats for state and local office. I don't see this one being much of a contest. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Gov. Beshear (D) 56%, Williams (R)

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

Democrats targeted the Majority Leader in 2008, and while they held him down they could not beat him. Since it would be hard to see a more anti-Republican year than 2008, it’s hard to see how McConnell will go down in 2014. Still, McConnell is pretty polarizing so he should expect any big victories. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Rand Paul (R)

Paul's ideology has been covered well elsewhere. I'd like to point out a simple fact. Paul won 56%-44%. In Kentucky. In 2010. This is not a particularly impressive victory, and indicates some unease with Paul even though his opponent shot himself in the foot late the campaign with "Aqua Buddha". This being Kentucky, Paul can probably hold this seat. However, his victory is hardly a portent of anything certain. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

This has become a very safe Republican district, and Whitfield has had only token opposition. This Western Kentucky seat needs to pick up only about 15,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Brett Guthrie (R)

Democrats ran hard here in 2008, but when a district rejects Democrats in an open seat in 2008, you know it is safe for the Republicans. This Central Kentucky seat needs to lose about 21,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

Democrats won this Louisville seat from Republican Anne Northup in 2006 and held it against her in 2008. Even though Northup had held it, it’s really quite marginal, going for John Kerry and giving Barack Obama 56%. Yarmuth won impressively in a terrible climate, 55%-44%. The seat needs to lose 15,000 people, but as redistricting is split I cannot see a situation in which Yarmuth does not have a serious advantage in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

This Northern Kentucky seat has become unreachable for Democrats. It needs to lose 12,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

Democrats have about as much chance of winning as Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino does of winning Man of the Year from the Family Research Council. This rural Southeast Kentucky seat needs to pick up 25,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

This Lexington/Frankfort based seat is mostly Republican (55% for McCain). Chandler has predictably put up a conservative record, which makes him a difficult target. As it was, he probably would have lost in 2010 had they not nominated a weak candidate in the form of Andy Barr, aide to disgraced former Governor Ernie Fletcher. As it was, Chandler survived by 600 votes. The seat needs to lose 24,000 people and demographics dictate that will pretty much have to come from the rural southern part of the district, which will help the incumbent. Still, given the notable trend against ticket splitting this seat is an obvious target for Republicans if they can find a better candidate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

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The Leaky Tire Economy

Perhaps you have had the problem that I recently had. I noticed that one of my tires was quite low, so I went to the gas station and for a dollar put air in the tire. About a month later, the same tire was nearly flat again, so I filled it again. Clearly there was some kind of slow leak in the tire. A couple of weeks later, the same thing happened. I could keep putting air in so the car would drive okay, but obviously I needed to change the tire. It was tempting to keep paying a dollar once every week or so, but my trips to put air in the tire would become more frequent and futile. I did not enjoy incurring the cost of replacing the tire, but it was a necessity.

That is our fiscal situation. It has been reported widely that the first quarter economic numbers were not impressive, and many economists blame this on the withdrawal of stimulus funding. They are right. The disappearance of this money does slow the economy down in the short term. However, this does not mean we need to keep putting up short term stimuli.

The massive stimulus measures didn't do much to create growth, and the backslide has continued. Clearly, the economy has some structural problems that go well beyond fiscal stimulus. Namely, the growth of the last decade was built largely on debt. We borrowed from the future, and now that is catching up to us.

In the long run, it is obvious that several structural changes will be necessary to the economy. Spending, particularly in the area of social insurance, will have to be curtailed. The government will probably need to raise revenue as well. In addition, for environmental and national security reasons, an increase in the gasoline tax may be appropriate as well. In the short run, none of these measure will help the economy. In the long run, they are vital.

Looking at short term stimulus is like putting air in a leaky tire. You can make things adequate for a while, but eventually you can't cover over the problem. Sometimes you just have to replace the tire, incur the hit, and improve your situation beyond the immediate horizon. We can keep trying stimulus, worsen our long term problems, and settle for sputtering and sporadic growth over the next decade. Or, we can take an economic hit now, suffer for a year or two, but lay the groundwork for strong growth going forward. The latter occurred in 1981-82 when Paul Volcker engineered a recession to rid the economy of inflation, and that's the kind of idea we need to think about now.

What are the odds elected officials will take short term economic pain? Take a wild guess.This is the rest of the post

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NY-26 and Medicare

Democrats are ecstatic over Tuesday's special election victory by Democrat Kathy Hochul in the special election to replace Republican Chris "Craigslist Lothario" Lee. Before we get too carried away with trying to analyze this, let's look at the result.

Hochul(D) 47%
Corwin (R) 43%
Davis (Tea) 9%

The first thing that should strike you about this result is that the Republican plus the Tea Party candidate would defeat Hochul. If we add the 1% the Green Party nomineee received to Hochul's total, we see that the GOP/Tea defeated the Dem/Greens 52/48.

Now, based on the last two Presidential elections we can identify this as an R+6 district. This is the most Republican district in New York, but by national standards it merely has a serious Republican lean. We would expect the Republicans to win, but the seat is hardly out of reach, especially if the Republicans screw the pooch as they did here.

Also, the Democrats are on a bit of a hot stretch after the capture of Osama bin Laden. According to the Real Clear Politics average on Tuesday, Obama's approval rating was 53%. If we say roughly that the election occurred in a D+3 environment, we would expect the GOP to take it 53-47, one point off the combined results.

Keep in mind also the turnout was abysmal, as turnout was less than half of the turnout in the noncompetitive 2010 election. Republicans also seem to do poorly in special elections. In short, this result was no surprise under the circumstances.

The Democrats see this result as a vindication of Medicare. Hochul ran strongly on preserving the system and the Republicans voiced support for changes along the line of the Paul Ryan voucher system. As we've seen, there is zero evidence that Medicare was a factor in this election. Taking this election as a mandate of the status quo on Medicare would be a huge mistake.

This brings us to another, more important point. Democrats point out Medicare is popular and people oppose changes. They are right. However, this does not change the fact that left unchanged Medicare will singlehandedly destroy the federal budget. In short, we cannot afford the Medicare we have now. Even if we could, the system going forward won't be the same one people like now. Due to rising costs, more and more seniors are finding fewer and fewer doctors are accepting Medicare. Increasingly, Medicare will mean longer waits, fewer options, and worse treatments. Is that what we're trying to save?

The idea of "saving Medicare" is what President Obama likes to call a false choice. Medicare must be altered. The manner in which it is altered is a manner of legitimate debate, but saving the status quo is not. The Democrats risk missing the boat politically and policywise by misinterpreting this special election.
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