State of the Race

This weekly column builds on last week's column, in which we established where the races for President, Governors, Senators, and House currently stand. We've seen a rash of new polls this week, especially in the Presidential race. We'll take a look at what has occurred and adjust our outlook currently. Here we focus more on where we are, more than where we are going.

President

Last week, we had Senator Obama winning a broad based victory on the back of a five point electoral margin. It appeared as if he was riding a bounce after winning the Democratic nomination. This week, we see evidence that the bounce has stopped and McCain may even have gained a small amount.

I like to focus more on state by state polls, but we should take a look at the national polls to help us frame the overall race. We have seen quite a few national election polls come out in the last week. Last Saturday saw two polls. A USA Today/Gallup poll had Obama leading by six points 50-44. The same day Newsweek published a poll showing Obama leading by a landlide of 15 points, 54-39. We've already touched on the Newsweek poll here, but for the record I heavily discount that as an outlier. It simply makes no sense, given everything we know, for Obama to lead by that amount.


LA Times/Bloomberg showed Obama ahead by 12 (49-37) on Wednesday. The LA Times admitted this poll had a flaw. By asking the infamous right/track wrong track question immediately before the presidential poll question, the answers skewed toward Obama. While this might suggest an obvious campaign strategy for Obama, it leads me to discount the poll.

Franklin and Marshall, whom I am not familiar with, also showed Obama up by six (42-36, again a high number of undecideds. Yesterday had two better results for McCain. Time had him behind 47-43, while Gallup had the race tied (which seems a bit too good for McCain). What you think this shows depends on your opinions of the heavily pro-Obama polls. Real Clear Politics averages out to a six point Obama lead, but I think this is overstating due to the two outliers. Four sounds more like it.

The national polls are clearly all over the place right now, which adds to the idea this is a fluid race. For what it's worth, the polls later in the week fared better for McCain, which might indicate a trend. I think we need to look more on the state polls to have a better idea of where the race stands.

Polls also differ on the favorable/unfavorable ratings on the candidates. Rasmussen has this as a dead heat (54-43 for Obama, 54-44 for McCain). USA Today/Gallup has a smaller edge for Obama (64-31 to 59-35). Not surprisingly, Newsweek had a massive edge 62-26 Obama, 49-37 McCain). It does appear that an astoundingly low number of people have unfavorable impressions of Obama, an idea I'm sure McCain will try to "correct". McCain will need those numbers to get closer to even as the race unfolds.

We had a ton of state polling this week, much of it in places we don't need it. We start with a state in the second category, Arizona. A bizarre poll form Arizona State shows McCain leading Obama 38-28. I generally don't trust polls with a 35% undecided rate in a national election, but the margin confers with what we already believe about the state. Arizona remains totally off the table and safe for McCain.

Two polls out of California show a huge Obama lead. SurveyUSA had it 53-41 and Rasmussen had it 58-30. Rasmussen overstates the Democratic edge, but it's clear that there is no competition here. California will go for Obama easily.

A Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll showed Obama leading McCain 49-44 in Colorado. This comports with what I believe in Colorado, that it will vote very close to the national average. I probably overstated Obama's chances here last week, because the only other recent poll had it a dead heat. Obama leads here, but I'm going to move the state to my list of current battlegrounds.

Indiana continues to poll very closely. SurveyUSA had it this week 48-47 for Obama. It's clearly a battleground, but I think if it voted today the Republican nature would come through and McCain would squeak out a victory. I'd also note that SurveyUSA has consistently had Obama closer than you'd logically expect in deep red states. I'm going to flip the state to McCain this week. I admit that's arbitrary, as the state remains close. To win the whole thing, McCain must have Indiana wrapped up by Election Day.

Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post had Barack Obama leading by 17 points in Minnesota, 54-37. I don't believe the margin is that much. Having said that, polls have routinely shown sizable Obama leads in Minnesota, and I don't see any reason to believe that McCain has more than a negligible chance of winning there.

Two polls show Obama leading in Michigan. PPP is a partisan organization (Democrat) and as we've shown here, uses questionable methodology. It showed Obama up nine, 48-39. Discarding that, Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington post had Obama up 6, 48-42. That seems much closer to reality. I think McCain can really compete in Michigan, but the state is not a prime battleground at this moment.

A Rasmussen poll in Mississippi showed McCain leading Obama 50-44. That seems way too close. Apparently, Obama agrees as he did not include Mississippi in his "expand the map" ad buy. Mississippi is safe for McCain.

SurveyUSA's poll in Missouri showed McCain leading Obama 50-43. I don't really believe the race is that much in favor of McCain. Other polls show it closer, and besides, if Obama has a 3-5 point lead nationally we'd expect Missouri to be a battleground. It remains tight, but in recognition of the poll I will flip Missouri to McCain this week.

Rasmussen decided for reasons known only to them to poll Nebraska. They showed, shockingly, McCain with a sixteen point lead. Nebraska is obviously safe for McCain, but the margin indicates Obama is highly unlikely to win an electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional district. Nebraska divides its votes, given two for the statewide winner and one for the winner of each Congressional district.

Fairleigh Dickinson University polled New Jersey, finding Obama leading 49-33. No surprise there. New Jersey won't be close this year.

Two polls show Obama leading in New Mexico. Rasmussen had it 47-39 and SurveyUSA a closer 49-46. McCain can and hopes to make New Mexico close. Right now, it seems on the second level of battlegrounds, and Obama would win it if the election were today.

SurveyUSA gave Obama a two point lead in the all important state of Ohio, 48-46. Polls have routinely shown Obama with a narrow but persistent lead here since the nomination fight. I still have Ohio on the list of second tier battlegrounds, the states that aren't the closest right now, but which a shift to McCain would create a close race. I actually think Obama's lead in Ohio is a little bigger right now, maybe five points. To win, McCain must win Ohio, so we'll continue to watch the state.

SurveyUSA's Oregon poll showed Obama leading 48-45, a much narrower lead than other polls. Oregon is not as Democratic as one might think, but I think that poll is an outlier. We'll keep our eye on Oregon, but right now I think Obama is comfortably ahead.

Rasmussen's poll in Pennsylvania showed Obama leading 46-42. Again, this is closer than most other polls of the state have shown. It may favor McCain, but not by much. Pennsylvania seems to be the most Democratic of the "Big Three" industrial belt states. We will watch Pennsylvania to the end, but it looks good for Obama at this point.

Tennessee will obviously vote for McCain, and Rasmussen confirmed this, showing a 51-36 point McCain lead. Any further polls of Tennessee will be gratuitous.

Texas Lyceum, an entity I am not familiar with, showed McCain with a surprisingly narrow five point lead. I am skeptical of the poll as it had a great number of undecideds (19%). Texas may not be the most Republican state, but I can't imagine it going for Obama apart from a historically large landslide.

It's odd enough when somebody polls Utah. It's even odder that two firms would poll it in the same week. I'm sure Deseret News (57-29) and Rasmussen (52-33) were shocked at the huge McCain lead. I think we can assume Utah will vote Republican.

SurveyUSA had Obama with a huge lead in Washington, 55-40. This is consistent with other polls. Washington looks totally safe for Obama.

Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post showed Obama with a 13 point lead in Wisconsin. That state has been close in the past two elections, yet Obama has shown consistent leads here. We will watch Wisconsin due to its history, but it continues to look like a strong Obama state, even if not quite a 13 point win.

So, I've flipped Indiana and Missouri to McCain this week. Having done that, I am going to flip two states that have polled remarkably close to those two, Florida and Nevada. Let's hope new polls confirm this soon rather than poll Utah again. All four states remain serious battlegrounds at this point.

As of today, the closest battlegrounds are in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. This still favors Obama. To win, McCain must win all the current battlegrounds shift the battleground territory into more Democratic states: Michigan, New Mexico, and Ohio. Meanwhile, Obama hopes to "expand the map" and make Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia tossup states.

Current Outlook:

Electoral Vote
Obama 306 (pick up CO, IA, NM, OH, VA)
McCain 232

Popular Vote
Obama 51.4%
McCain 47.9%

Governors

Not much action on the governor front this week. I do want to add one thing to my last column. The North Carolina race, which I sort of dismissed last week, is actually shaping up to be very close. The latest poll showed Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverley Perdue with a two point lead over GOP Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. I still favor Perdue, just not by all that much.

Current Outlook:
Democrats 29 (pickup MO)
Republicans 21

Senate

Several polls have come out on the Senate races this week. The big picture hasn't changed much, nor does it look to do so.

In Kentucky, Rasmussen puts Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell ahead of Democrat Bruce Lunsford 48-41. This is consistent with previous polls, which tend to show a consistent though not overwhelming lead for McConnell. He may not blow Lunsford out of the park, but McConnell is likely to win another term.

In Michigan, a PPP poll shows Senator Carl Levin ahead of Republican Jack Hoogendyk 54-32. I don't trust PPP, but there is no reason to suspect this race will be even remotely close. Levin is safe for another term.

Rasmussen released polls on both Senate races in Mississippi this week. The regular race is the easy one, as the poll showed Senator Thad Cochran with a 32 point lead over Erik Fleming. That won't be a contest.

The special election there remains a barnburner. The poll showed Senator Roger Wicker with a one point lead over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove. By any stretch of the imagination, this one is just too close to project a leader at this point. I'll keep the race with Musgrove, as that is where it was last week. I reiterate again that I expect Mississippi to vote for Wicker in the end.

A Rasmussen poll in Nebraska shows Republican Mike Johanns continuing to hold a massive lead over Democrat Scott Kleeb. This shows no signs of being a contest.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll in New Jersey shows Senator Frank Lautenberg with a big lead over Republican Dick Zimmer 45-28. Like the FDU Presidential poll, this had a large number of undecideds. Lautenberg is not loved in New Jersey, but he remains likely to win in a Democratic year. I'd be surprised if he won by anywhere near 17 points, though.

Finally, in New Mexico, Rasmussen shows Democratic Representative Tom Udall with a huge lead (58-30) over Republican Representative Steve Pearce. This is in line with every other survey in the state. The final margin won't be 28 points, but this looks certain to be a Democratic pickup.

Current Outlook:
Democrats 57 (pick up AK, CO, MS(special), NH, NJ, VA)
Republicans 43

House

We haven't seen much movement this week in House races. We won't be seeing much movement on a regular basis for three or so more months. Thus, this week I want to take a brief individual look at each of the closest races. I didn't really analyze them race by race last week, and doing so can give us a better idea of where things stand.

First, we'll get the easy ones out of the way. One race looks very certain to flip. That is Virginia 11, where Tom Davis is retiring in an area that has become quite Democratic leaning. Of the second tier races (which I define as races which are close and will be competitive, but in which I can say one side is favored by some amount at this point), two favor Democratic takeovers. Those would be Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi retiring) and New York 25 (James Walsh retiring). For now we will add these races to the Democrat totals.

The other 11 "second tier" races favor the incumbent party. Democrats currently hold five of these seats: California 11 (Jerry McNerney), Florida 16 (Tim Mahoney), Oregon 5 (Darlene Hooley retiring), Pennsylvania 10 (Christopher Carney), and Texas 22 (Nick Lampson. Republicans currently hold narrow edges in six of their seats: Colorado 4 (Marilyn Musgrave), Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk), Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery retiring), New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton retiring), New York 26 (Tom Reynolds retiring), and New York 29 (Randy Kuhl). Any of these races could easily go the other way, but for now we rate them holds.

This leaves us 12 "top tier" races, which are and will be close, and in which we can't really say who is ahead at this point. We are going to make picks, as that's what we do here, but please realize they really are tossup races. We will start with the three seats currently held by Democrats, and then cover the nine top tier races held by Republicans.

Alabama 5: Conservative Democrat Bud Cramer is retiring. Republicans have a problem because they have a runoff, as Wayne Parker got 49% in the first round. The Republican establishment is trying to promote Parker. The NRCC is "neutral", but Chairman Tom Cole gave Parker $5,000. The Democrats have nominated the best possible candidate in Huntsville Mayor Parker Griffith. This is hardly a Democratic district, but Griffith is well positioned, the national mood favors Democrats, and Democrats have had success in similar districts in special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi this cycle. For now, the call here remains Democratic.

Kansas 2: Last week, a gave this race to the Republicans without thinking too much about it. That was a mistake. In looking at this race, I am disregarding a poll showing Boyda up huge over either Republican candidate leaked last week by the DCCC. Due to the obvious selection bias in such leaked polls, I disregard them as a matter of policy. Nevertheless, I probably erred. Republicans have a primary between Jim Ryun, who Boyda beat in 2000, and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. In either event, the Republican candidate won't have any money. Ryun is the favorite to win the primary at this point, which is another problem. He routinely ran behind his party while in Congress, and would be much more likely to lose in November than Jenkins. Given the intraparty dissension, I am switching my pick to Boyda. This district is overwhelmingly Republican however, so Boyda cannot rest easy. Even if she wins, she'll be vulnerable once the Democratic tilt we've seen for two elections goes away.

Louisiana 6: The third Democratic seat on the top tier, this seat went to Don Cazayoux in a May special election. He benefitted from running against Republican Woody Jenkins, who has lost multiple statewide election bids and did not run a good campaign this time. Cazayoux will run again as a conservative Democrat, which might be a problem if Barack Obama gains a reputation as a leftist. This race hasn't taken shape yet at all, and we don't know yet who will face Cazayoux. Republicans need to do better than Jenkins. This is another strongly Republican district (Bush by 19 points in 2004). Then again, winners of special elections don't often lose later that year in the general. We'll stick with Cazayoux for now, on the assumption Republicans won't have a great candidate and that voters will not fire Cazayoux so soon after his election. None of that is certain.

Alaska At Large: Having rated the Democrats slight favorites to hold their three top tier seats, we now turn to the Republicans. Here, Representative Don Young is trying to hold on amid a corruption allegations. Two polls have shown him behind Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. He faces Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell in the Republican primary. Incidentally, both polls showed Parnell leading Berkowitz, and Parnell beat Berkowitz for Lieutenant Governor in 2006. One poll showed Parnell leading Young, though the sample was so small as to be meaningless. I think Young will lose, but I think the Republicans would hold on here if Young went away. I'm going with this seat to flip to the Democrats for now, but I'd reverse that if Parnell beats Young in August.

Minnesota 3: Republican Representative Jim Ramstad retired, leaving this seat open. Republican State Representative Erik Paulsen has received much praise from state and national party leaders. Meanwhile, the preferred Democratic candidate lost at the convention to liberal Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia. Paulsen would seem to have an edge over Madia, but Barack Obama looks to win Minnesota by a good amount. Any coattails he might have could make a difference. I'm going with Paulsen for now given his money advantage and that he seems a better candidate than Madia. In a good Democratic year, however, that may not matter.

New Jersey 7: Republican Representative Michael Ferguson is retiring. Democrat Linda Stender came within 6,000 votes of beating Ferguson last time, and is trying again in a district that went for George W. Bush by one point in 2000 and six in 2004. Stender has been promoted by the DCCC and has a cash advantage over Republican State Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance. Republicans have signaled they intend to try to link Stender with Democratic corruption and Governor Jon Corzine. It's hard to pick this race at this point, but I do note that slightly Republican districts have become difficult for Republicans to hold onto, and Democrats won quite a few seats like this last election. This, plus an expected Obama romp in December, gives a slight edge to Stender for the Democratic pickup.

New Mexico 1: Moderate Republican Heather Wilson gave this up to lose a Senate primary. Democrats routinely targeted Wilson, and routinely fell short. Both candidates, Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and Democrat New Mexico City Councilman Martin Heinrich, look fabulous. White has greater name recognition, Heinrich will have more money. White has Democrats trying to tie him to President Bush. This should be a close race, but given the national climate it is hard to see Republicans keeping an open swing seat that an incumbent could barely hold onto. Call it a Democratic pickup for now.

New York 13: We've covered this one in some depth, but to summarize, Republicans have gone through an incumbent with a DUI and love child, a replacement who died, and currently have no candidate. The DCCC is spending over $2 million here. This looks like a Democratic pickup.

North Carolina 8: Republican Robin Hayes routinely squeaks by, but 2006 was close even for him. National Democrats gave this race no money or attention, and Democrat Larry Kissell lost by 329 votes. This time, Kissell has national support. Kissell released a poll (which I am disregarding), showing him with a two point lead. The poll also showed Hayes with a 50-33 approval-disapproval score. This race depends on whether you think Kissell's lack of national support made a difference. He'll need it, because Hayes has outraised him several times over. Bush won by 9 here in 2004, but the seat has trended Democrat. It has a sizable black population and should go for Obama. That might make the difference. I don't feel good about this pick, but in another Democratic year I'll go with Kissell for the pickup.

Ohio 15: Republican Deborah Pryce survived 2006 by 1,100 votes over Mary Jo Kilroy, then decided to retire. Kilroy released a poll in May (disregarded by me) showing her up 12. This district has trended Democratic, as Bush lost eight points here between 2000 and 2004. Republicans are high on their nominee, State Senator Steve Stivers (alliteration!), but it's just hard to see a Republican winning this open seat barring a catastrophe. We'll see how it develops, but call it a pickup for now.

Ohio 16: 18 term Republican Representative Ralph Regula is retiring. This district is slightly right of center (54% for Bush in 2004), but districts like this have trended Democratic. The race hasn't developed much. Democrats nominated State Senator John Boccieri, who actually lives outside the district. He can self finance, but people who move to the district often have problems with the carpetbag label. This district is a better bet for the GOP than the 15th, and I think they'll hold it.

Washington 8: Representative Dave Reichert looks to win another one over Darcy Burner, who nearly beat him in 2006. This district leans Democrat, and would probably go that way in an open seat. Burner is hoping that Obama provides enough wind to get her over the hump this time. Robin Hayes notwithstanding, in rematches I usually go with the person who won last time, as they usually win again. I'll stick with Reichert. Like all these races, it will be close.

Thus, looking at the races individually, we project a pickup of nine seats for the Democrats. If all the tossup races went Republican, we'd have a net zero. If they all went Democratic, they'd pick up 12. The max pickup for Democrats (winning every race on the top two tiers) is 20. We're looking at a 9-12 seat pickup, and for now we'll use 9.

Current Outlook:
Democrats 245 (pickup AK-AL, AZ-1, NJ-7, NM-1, NY-13, NY-25, NC-8, OH-15 VA-11)
Republicans 190