State of the Day - California

It seems to hard to remember that most considered the Golden State good Republican territory until 1992. Before Bill Clinton carried it, it had voted Republican six presidential elections in a row (including four times for Californians). Its Republican Senator had just gone to the Governor’s Mansion as part of a streak of four straight Republican victories.

Now, of course, we view California as a heavily Democratic state, dominated by San Francisco style cultural liberals. It’s not that simple, but the state certainly tilts strongly Democratic. The Republican Party actually has serious strength in pockets, mainly inland. However, the large Democratic presence on the coasts, punctuated by the socially liberal San Francisco Bay area and heavily minority Los Angeles, outnumber the Republicans. The GOP has further struggled as its party base has gotten more conservative, making it hard to field appealing statewide candidates. The only notable Republican here this decade, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, never had to run a primary and governs so liberally it can be hard to identify him as a Republican.

For a full analysis of California's Presidential Race, Dianne Feinstein's Senate race, and a one-of-a-kind analysis of ALL 53 Congressional districts, continue reading...

President – 55 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 51%, Bob Dole (R) 38%
2000: Al Gore (D) 53%, George Bush (R) 42%
2004: John Kerry (D) 54%, Pres. George Bush (R) 44%

Republicans dream of winning here. Given the current state of the electoral map, it would guarantee a victory. The GOP always talks of winning here, and John McCain is no exception. George Bush even spent $20 million here in 2000. It didn’t help. California has become an indisputably Democratic state, and hasn’t even been close in recent elections. It would take a landslide McCain win to even think about turning California red. The odds of that are beyond remote.

Prediction: Obama (D) 58%, McCain (R) 42%

Governor – Arnold Schwarzenegger(R)

1998: Gray Davis (D) 58%, Dan Lungren (R) 38%
2002: Gov. Gray Davis (D) 47%, Bill Simon (R) 42%
2003 special: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49%, Cruz Bustamante (D) 32%
2006: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 56%, Phil Angelides (D) 39%

Governor Schwarzenegger cannot run for another term. At this point, we have a staggering amount of potential candidates. Potential Republicans include Representatives Brian Bilbray, Ken Calvert, David Dreier, Elton Gallegly, Wally Herger, Darrell Issa, Dan Lungren, Buck McKeon, George Radanovich, and Ed Royce, state Senators David Cox and Tom McClintock (who is running for Congress in 2008), state Representative Bonnie Garcia, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Of those, I’d rate Dreier (who can raise a ton of money), McClintock (a conservative favorite) and Poizner (the statewide official), as the favorites. All these candidates qualify as “conservatives”, unlike Schwarzenegger.

Democratic contenders include Secretary of State Debra Bowen, and state Attorney General Jerry Brown (former Governor Moonbeam), Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Representative Loretta Sanchez, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, I’d rate Brown, Garamendia, and Villaraigosa as the most likely to run, with Brown or Villaraigosa as the favorites.

In any event, the race is likely to boil down to a liberal and a conservative. That favors the Democrat in this Democratic state, and they are the early favorites to retain this office.

Senior Senator – Dianne Feinstein (D)

1994: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 47%, Michael Huffington (R) 45%
2000: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 56%, Tom Campbell (R) 37%
2006: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 59%, Dick Mountjoy (D) 35%

Feinstein turns 79 in 2012 but has not yet announced any intention to retire. Beyond the Polls has a policy of assuming the incumbent will run until they announce they will not. Feinstein will be a heavy favorite if she runs. Aside from her being a well-respected Democrat in a blue state (though her approval-disapproval rating was 49-47 in May, according to SurveyUSA), incumbents have a huge advantage here because it takes so much money to run a statewide race. Her retirement would set off a large Democratic scramble for this seat.

Arnold Schwarzenegger would be the Republicans best chance, if he didn’t run against Barbara Boxer in 2010. He has a moderate (if not liberal) record and would have no money troubles. He would almost certainly face conservative primary opposition. In the alternative, some have suggested comedian Dennis Miller. He would have money, but it is hard to tell what kind of candidate he’d be. Most of the names listed above for the gubernatorial race also have expressed interest, but they would all start out as underdogs. This looks like a Democratic hold, but Schwarzenegger could make it interesting.

Junior Senator – Barbara Boxer (D)

1992: Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Bruce Herschensohn (R) 43%
1998: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 53%, Matt Fong (R) 43%
2004: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 58%, Bill Jones (R) 38%

Nobody personifies the California shift like Boxer. Before the 1990’s the idea that someone as liberal as Boxer could get elected Senator from California struck pretty much everyone as ridiculous. Now, no one bats an eye when she wins easily. Despite turning 70 in 2010, she said she will run again. Arnold Schwarzenegger would provide the best hope of defeating her, if he could get the Republican nomination. In May, Survey USA showed her approval-disapproval rating at 50-44, compared to the Governor’s 37-60. Combined with the Democratic nature of the state, one would have to give an edge to Boxer.

Boxer would have a huge edge over any other potential candidate, including Representatives Dreier and Issa, as well as Tom McClintock.

House 1 – Mike Thompson (D)

2002: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 64%, Lawrence Wiesner (R) 32%
2004: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 67%, Lawrence Wiesner (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 66%, John Jones (R) 29%

Thompson has entrenched himself in this solidly Democratic North California district and faces only token opposition from Republican Zane Starkewolfe.

House 2 – Wally Herger (R)

2002: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 66%, Mike Johnson (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 67%, Mike Johnson (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 64%, A.J. Sekhon (D) 32%

Herger has been mentioned as a statewide candidate, but to do so he’ll need to raise more than the $531,000 he has this cycle. He won’t need it here, as Democrat Jeffrey Morris has no chance in this district that gave Bush 62% in 2004.

House 3 – Dan Lungren (R)

2002: Rep. Doug Ose (R) 62%, Howard Beeman (D) 35%
2004: Dan Lungren (R) 62%, Gabe Castillo (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 59%, Bill Durston (D) 38%

This Northwest California district is not the most Republican district in California, but it did give Bush 59% in 2004. Bill Durston is back for rematch, and while Lungren has only sluggishly raised funds, he’ll still outspend Durston. There is no reason believe that Lungren will have any trouble.

House 4 – John Doolittle (R)

2002: Rep. John Doolittle (R) 65%, Mark Norberg (D) 32%
2004: Rep. John Doolittle (R) 65%, David Winters (D) 35%
2006: Rep. John Doolittle (R) 49%, Charlie Brown (D) 46%

Republicans cheered in January when the ethically challenged Doolittle announced his retirement. This solidly Republican Northwest California district gave George W. Bush 61%, but Doolittle squeaked out a three point win in 2006 after he became embroiled in several ethical scandals, connections to Jack Abramoff among them, and had the FBI raid his House. It looked certain that Doolittle could not win in 2008.

With Doolittle gone, Democrat Charlie Brown has continued to run hard, raising over a million dollars. The Republicans nominated veteran politico Tom McClintock, who is well liked among conservatives. McClintock has also raised over a million dollars, but finds himself slightly beyond Brown in the money race.

Despites Brown’s efforts, McClintock should keep this seat for the Republicans. He is a good candidate who should not suffer many Republican defections, and that should prove enough in this district.

House 5 – Doris Matsui (D)

2002: Rep. Robert Matsui (D) 71%, Richard Frankhuizen (R) 24%
2004: Rep. Robert Matsui (D) 71%, Mike Dugas (R) 23%
2005 special: Doris Matsui (D) 68%, John Flynn (R) 8%
2006: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) 71%, Claire Yan (R) 24%

Doris Matusi should have no problem holding on in this heavily Democratic Sacramento district against Paul Smith.

House 6 – Lynn Woolsey (D)

2002: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 67%, Paul Erickson (R) 30%
2004: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 73%, Paul Erickson (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 70%, Tood Hooper (R) 26%

Woolsey gets the occasional primary challenge, but doesn’t have to worry about Republican Michael Halliwell.

House 7 – George Miller (D)

2002: Rep. George Miller (D) 71%, Charles Hargrave (R) 26%
2004: Rep. George Miller (D) 76%, Charles Hargrave (R) 24%
2006: Rep. George Miller (D) unopposed

This is a right wing district by Bay Area standards, giving “only” 67% to John Kerry. That still does not mean Republican Roger Petersen has any chance whatsoever.

House 8 – Nancy Pelosi (D)

2002: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 80%, Michael German (R) 13%
2004: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 83%, Jennifer Depalma (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 80%, Mike DeNunzio (R) 11%

Pelosi certainly doesn’t have to worry about going the way of Tom Foley in this ridiculously Democratic district against Republican Dana Walsh. Cindy Sheehan is trying to get on the ballot as an independent, but she can only be a bigger danger to herself than the Speaker of the House.

House 9 – Barbara Lee (D)

2002: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 85%, Jerald Udinsky (R) 10%
2004: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 85%, Claudia Bermudez (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 86%, John Dulk (R) 11%

Republican Charles Hargrave is trying a shot at a House seat in another district, having failed twice as the GOP challenger in the Seventh. He somehow managed to find a district that is even more Democratic.

House 10 – Ellen Tauscher (D)

2002: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) 66%, Jeff Ketelson (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) 66%, Darcy Linn (R) 34%

The moderate Tauscher has bigger worries from angry liberals in a potential primary than from Republican Nicholas Gerber.

House 11 – Jerry McNerney (D)

2002: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) 60%, Elaine Shaw (R) 40%
2004: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) 61%, Jerry McNerney (D) 39%
2006: Jerry McNerney (D) 53%, Rep. Richard Pombo (R) 47%

This district is close, but it probably leans about three points right of center. McNerney won in 2006 because Richard Pombo lost. The Democratic wave, rabid environmentalist opposition, connections to Jack Abramoff, and a bad wardrobe did Pombo in.

Republican Dean Andal looks to be a solid challenger at this point. Republicans seem very excited about him. Unlike Pombo, he will not do himself in. Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook both rate this race as a tossup. I give McNerney a small edge for a few reasons. First, it looks to again be a good Democratic environment. Second, he has the edge of incumbency now. Third, he’ll have more money than Andal, having raised nearly $2 million. The NRCC is also in dire need of funds, so Andal can’t count on much outside help. So, I’m picking the Democrat to hang on as of right now, but I suspect we will want to keep tabs of this race.

House 12 – Jackie Speier (D)

2002: Rep. Tom Lantos (D) 68%, Michael Moloney (R) 25%
2004: Rep. Tom Lantos (D) 68%, Mike Garza (R) 21%
2006: Rep. Tom Lantos (D) 76%, Michael Moloney (R) 24%
2008 special: Jackie Speier (D) 77%, Greg Conlon (R) 9%

Speier, a survivor of the Jonestown Massacre, is set to crush Republican Greg Conlon is this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 13 – Pete Stark (D)

2002: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 71%, Syed Mahmoud (R) 22%
2004: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 72%, George Bruno (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 75%, George Bruno (R) 25%

Stark will get another two years to make outrageous comments after clobbering Raymond Chui.

House 14 – Anna Eshoo (D)

2002: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 68%, Joe Nixon (R) 28%
2004: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 70%, Chris Haugen (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 71%, Rob Smith (R) 24%

Republican challenger Ronny Santana is going to learn that Californians don’t believe in competitive Congressional districts.

House 15 – Mike Honda (D)

2002: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 66%, Linda Hermann (R) 31%
2004: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 78%, Raymond Chukwu (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 72%, Raymond Chukwu (R) 28%

Republican Joyce Cordi will fight the odds to clear the magic 30% barrier.

House 16 – Zoe Lofgren (D)

2002: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 67%, Douglas McNea (R) 30%
2004: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 71%, Douglas McNea (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 73%, Charel Winston (R) 27%

I wonder why Republican Charel Winston is trying again.

House 17 – Sam Farr (D)

2002: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 68%, Clint Engler (R) 27%
2004: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 67%, Mark Risler (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 76%, Anthony DeMaio (R) 23%

Gee, another Bay Area district that isn’t competitive. I’m shocked! Republican Jeff Taylor is wasting his time.

House 18 – Dennis Cardoza (D)

2002: Dennis Cardoza (D), Dick Monteith (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 68%, Charles Pringle (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 65%, John Kanno (R) 35%

Bush actually won this district in 2004, so of course the Republicans failed to field a candidate in this district.

House 19 – George Radanovich (R)

2002: Rep. George Radanovich (R) 67%, John Veen (D) 30%
2004: Rep. George Radanovich (R) 66%, James Bufford (D) 27%
2006: Rep. George Radanovich (R) 61%, T.J. Cox (D) 39%

California’s preference for safe seats goes back to the 1970’s, when Congressman Phil Burton said he believed the state's Representatives should have safe seats, due to such long flights from Washington. Thus, even the Republican seats here are solid red. Radanovich is unopposed in a district that gave Bush 61% in 2004.

House 20 – Jim Costa (D)

2002: Rep. Cal Dooley (D) 64%, Andre Minuth ® 34%
2004: Jim Costa (D) 53%, Roy Ashburn (R) 47%
2006: Rep. Jim Costa (D) unopposed

The Democratic tilt of this district is actually modest enough to the extent that a good Republican candidate in a good Republican year could threaten to win here. Jim Lopez isn’t that guy, and this isn’t that year.

House 21 – Devin Nunes (R)

2002: Devin Nunes (R) 71%, David LaPere (D) 26%
2004: Rep. Devin Nunes (R) 73%, Fred Davis (D) 27%
2006: Rep. Devin Nunes (R) 67%, Steven Haze (D) 30%

It’s not going to happen for Democrat challenger Larry Johnson.

House 22 – Kevin McCarthy (R)

2002: Rep. Bill Thomas (R) 73%, Jaime Corvera (D) 24%
2004: Rep. Bill Thomas (R) unopposed
2006: Kevin McCarthy (R) 71%, Sharon Beery (R) 29%

McCarthy is unopposed in this heavily Republican, Bakersfield centered seat.

House 23 – Lois Capps (D)

2002: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 59%, Beth Rogers (R) 39%
2004: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 63%, Don Regan (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 65%, Victor Tognazzini (R) 35%

Republicans have given up on knocking off Capps in this mostly but not staunchly Democratic seat. Republican Matt Kokkonen is this year’s sacrificial lamb.

House 24 – Elton Gallegly (R)

2002: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 65%, Fern Rudin (D) 32%
2004: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 63%, Brett Wagner (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 62%, Jill Martinez (D) 38%

Gallegly originally announced his retirement, giving Democrats a shot at this Republican leaning Santa Barbara/Ventura seat. However, Gallegly decided to stay, and he should trounce Democrat Marta Jorgensen.

House 25 – Buck McKeon (R)

2002: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 65%, Bob Conaway (D) 31%
2004: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 64%, Tim Willoughby (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 60%, Robert Rodriguez (D) 36%

McKeon won’t have any problems in this mostly Republican district against Democrat Jackie Conaway.

House 26 – David Dreier (R)

2002: Rep. David Dreier (R) 64%, Marjorie Mikels (D) 34%
2004: Rep. David Dreier (R) 54%, Cynthia Matthews (D) 43%
2006: Rep. David Dreier (R) 57%, Cynthia Matthews (D) 38%

Dreier is safe against Democrat Russ Warner. If he ever does vacate this seat to run for statewide office, Democrats will have a chance in this Republican leaning seat.

House 27 – Brad Sherman (D)

2002: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 62%, Robert Levy (R) 38%
2004: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 62%, Robert Levy (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 69%, Pete Hankwitz (R) 31%

Here comes another solidly Democratic district. Brad Sherman is safe against Republican challenger Navraj Singh.

House 28 – Howard Berman (D)

2002: Rep. Howard Berman (D) 71%, David Hernandez (R) 23%
2004: Rep. Howard Berman (D) 71%, David Hernandez (R) 23%
2006: Rep. Howard Berman (D) 74%, Stanley Kesselman (R) 19%

Longtime stalwart Berman has no opposition in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 29 – Adam Schiff (D)

2002: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 63%, Jim Scileppi (R) 33%
2004: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 65%, Harry Scolinos (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 63%, William Bodell (R) 27%

The longtime District Attorney of Law & Order is safe against Republican Charles Hahn in this solidly Democratic district.

House 30 – Henry Waxman (D)

2002: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) 70%, Tony Goss (R) 30%
2004: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) 71%, Victor Elizalde (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) 71%, David Jones (R) 26%

Nothing to see here. Republican Keith Fichtelman couldn’t even get on the ballot.

House 31 – Xavier Becerra (D)

2002: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) 81%, Luis Vega (R) 19%
2004: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) 80%, Luis Vega (R) 20%
2006: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) unopposed

Moving right along, Becerra is unopposed.

House 32 – Hilda Solis (D)

2002: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) 69%, Emma Fischbeck (R) 28%
2004: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) unopposed

Look, Ma! An unopposed Democrat running in a solidly Democratic LA district.

House 33 – Diane Watson (D)

2002: Rep. Diane Watson (D) 83%, Andrew Kim (R) 14%
2004: Rep. Diane Watson (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Diane Watson (D) unopposed

Somehow, I doubt Republican David Crowley makes Watson quake in her boots in this obscenely Democratic district.

House 34 – Lucille Royball-Allard (D)

2002: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 74%, Wayne Miller (R) 26%
2004: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 74%, Wayne Miller (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 77%, Wayne Miller (R) 23%

Republican Christopher Balding will be substituting for Wayne Miller in this year's whipping.

House 35 – Maxine Waters (D)

2002: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) 77%, Ross Moen (R) 19%
2004: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) 81%, Ross Moen (R) 15%
2006: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) unopposed

Don’t you wonder what Republican challeger Ted Hayes is trying to accomplish by challenging Waters?

House 36 – Jane Harman (D)

2002: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 61%, Stuart Johnson (R) 35%
2004: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 62%, Paul Whitehead (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 63%, Brian Gibson (R) 34%

I’ll go with 64% for Nancy Pelosi’s least favorite diva in her rematch with Republican Brian Gibson.

House 37 – Laura Richardson (D)

2002: Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) 73%, Oscar Velasco (R) 23%
2004: Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) 75%, Vernon Van (R) 20%
2006: Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) unopposed
2007 special: Laura Richardson (D) 67%, John Kanaley (R) 25%

This heavily Democratic Long Beach district gives Richardson no Republican opposition.

House 38 – Grace Napolitano (D)

2002: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) 71%, Alex Burrola (R) 26%
2004: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) 75%, Sidney Street (R) 25%

Here is yet another unopposed Democrat in yet another overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 39 – Linda Sanchez (D)

2002: Linda Sanchez (D) 55%, Tim Escobar (R) 41%
2004: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) 61%, Tim Escobar (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) 66%, James Andion (R) 34%

Sanchez resumed using her Hispanic maiden name when she ran in this Hispanic majority district. Even if Republican Diane Lenning did the same, she’d have no chance.

House 40 – Ed Royce (R)

2002: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 68%, Christina Avalos (D) 30%
2004: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 68%, Tilman Williams (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 67%, Florice Huffman (D) 31%

A Republican! You can probably tell we shifted to Orange County. This district is mostly Republican, and Royce will roll over Christina Avalos.

House 41 – Jerry Lewis (R)

2002: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) 67%, Keith Johnson (D) 30%
2004: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) 67%, Louie Contreras (D) 33%

In what seems to be a tradition for people named Jerry Lewis, the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee finds himself in some trouble. He has come under investigation for using his Appropriations perch to attempt to generate business for the lobbying firm of some of his friends. Lewis has decided to run again. Some originally thought that this solidly Republican Inland Empire district (62% for Bush in 2004) might be vulnerable. However, Democrat Tim Prince is not a serious candidate, and Democrats do not appear to be targeting this district. Lewis is safe for another term.

House 42 – Gary Miller (R)

2002: Rep. Gary Miller (R) 68%, Richard Waldron (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Gary Miller (R) 68%, Lewis Myers (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Gary Miller (R) unopposed

Miller has also faced ethical questions, this time stemming from conflicts of interest that allowed him to benefit from real estate transactions. Once again, Democrats don’t have a serious candidate (Edwin Chau), and Miller should win this safe Republican seat again. He may have a somewhat reduced margin.

House 43 – Joe Baca (D)

2002: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 66%, Wendy Neighbor (D) 31%
2004: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 66%, Ed Laning (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 64%, Scott Folkens (R) 36%

Republican John Roberts is going to take time from his dual roles as Chief Justice and CNN host to get shellacked by Baca in this heavily Democratic San Bernadino district.

House 44 – Ken Calvert (R)

2002: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 64%, Louis Vandenberg (D) 32%
2004: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 62%, Louis Vandenberg (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 60%, Louis Vandenberg (D) 37%

Calvert has had ethical troubles relating to the use of earmarks, which only adds to his 1993 arrest for soliciting a prostitute. This district leans Republican, but not overly so. Even so, Democrats did not nominate a serious candidate, as Bill Hedrick is just not up to the task. Democrats missed a good opportunity to knock off Calvert.

House 45 – Mary Bono (R)

2002: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 65%, Elle Kurplewski (D) 32%
2004: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 67%, Richard Meyer (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 61%, David Roth (D) 39%

Mary Bono Mack (she married Florida Rep. Connie Mack in December) has ensconsed herself safely in what should be a swing district. She’ll destroy Julie Bornstein.

House 46 – Dana Rohrabacher (R)

2002: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 62%, Gerrie Schipske (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 62%, Jim Brandt (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 60%, Jim Brandt (D) 37%

Some have talked up Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook as a Democratic challenger in this Republican leaning district. However, she has not raised enough money to be competitive against the entrenched Rohrabacher.

House 47 – Loretta Sanchez (D)

2002: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 61%, Lawrence Wiesner (R) 35%
2004: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 60%, Alex Coronado (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 62%, Tim Nguyen (D) 38%

Republican Rosemarie Avila is not a serious candidate. Sanchez can continue to prepare for a statewide race.

House 48 – John Campbell (R)

2002: Rep. Christopher Cox (R) 69%, John Graham (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Christopher Cox (R) 65%, John Graham (D) 32%
2005 special: John Campbell (R) 44%, Steve Young (D) 28%
2006: Rep. John Campbell (R) 60%, Steve Young (D) 37%

Democrat Steve Young will pick up strike three against Campbell in this solidly Republican Orange County district.

House 49 – Darrell Issa (R)

2002: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 77%, Mike Byron (D) 1%
2004: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 63%, Mike Byron (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 63%, Jeeni Criscenzo (D) 33%

Issa desperately wants to run for statewide office. Despite his riches (he funded a large part of the 2003 Gray Davis recall petition), he’s probably too conservative for that to happen. He’s safe against the meager challenge of Robert Hamilton in this heavily Republican district.

House 50 – Brian Bilbray (R)

2002: Rep. Randy Cunningham (R) 64%, Del Stewart (D) 32%
2004: Rep. Randy Cunningham (R) 58%, Francine Busby (D) 36%
2006 special: Brian Bilbray (R) 50%, Francine Busby (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) 53%, Francine Busby (D) 43%

The Democrats are trying hard here with Nick Leibham. I rate Bilbray the solid favorite however, for a few reasons. First, Democrats are not going to have a better chance than they did in 2006. This seat came up for a special election in June, when corrupt Congressman Duke Cunningham resigned in disgrace. The nation’s attention focused on it, and the Democrats wanted to send a message about November. They failed. They kept running. Democrat Francine Busby actually outspent Bilbray. She lost badly.

Clearly, that series of events cast a cloud on the Democrats ability to win here. Leibham has not shown a great fundraising capacity so far. To top off the matter, the San Diego district has a serious Republican lean, as Bush won twice by double digits here. I just cannot see any evidence that Democrats can threaten Bilbray, so I think he’ll hold the seat.

House 51 – Bob Filner (D)

2002: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 58%, Maria Garcia (R) 39%
2004: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 62%, Michael Giorgino (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 67%, Blake Miles (R) 30%

Filner will worry more about the Democrat primary than Republican David Joy in this majority Hispanic San Diego district.

House 52 – Duncan Hunter (R)

2002: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) 70%, Peter Moore-Kochlacs (D) 26%
2004: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) 69%, Brian Keliher (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) 65%, John Rinaldi (D) 32%

Hunter retired in order to make a hilariously pathetic run for President. I thought his press conference where he berated “arrogant knuckleheads” in the media for barring him from debates and reporting that he would drop out was one of the great moments of 2008. Luckily for Duncan fans, his son Duncan Hunter Jr. will have no problems winning in this solidly Republican San Diego district over Democrat Mike Lumpkin.

House 53 – Susan Davis (D)

2002: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 62%, Bill VanDeWeghe (R) 38%
2004: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 66%, Darin Hunzeker (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 68%, John Woodrum (R) 30%

It’s a fitting end to the California House section, as Susan Davis will easily clobber Michael Crimmins in this heavily Democratic San Diego district.

House Predictions - 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans...NO CHANGE