House Spotlight: Minnesota 3

Today, Beyond The Polls examines Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District. MN-3 has been represented by Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad since 1991. After several years in Congress, Rep. Ramstad decided to retire after 2008, creating a wide open race to replace him. While Ramstad has consistently won the district with well over 60% of the vote, the district split very evenly between President Bush and his opponents in 2000 and 2004. In 2000, George W. Bush won the district by 4%; four years later, President Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry by just 3%. Given the closely divided partisan nature of MN-3 and Rep. Ramstad's retirement, MN-3 will be one of the most competitive House races in 2008.

For much more analysis of MN-3, including detailed profiles of Republican candidate Erick Paulsen and Democratic candidate Ashwin Madia, continue reading below.

District Profile and History.


Minnesota's 3rd Congressional district encompasses part of Minneapolis, along with suburbs to the city's north, west, and south. Brooklyn Park, a blue collar suburb, is known for its former mayor Jesse Ventura. Another suburb, Bloomington, is home to the Mall of America. Historically, the suburbs to the west of Minneapolis have been Republican.

As noted above, MN-3 has been closely divided in the last two Presidential elections, with President Bush winning by slim margins. Despite the district's close margins in Presidential politics, it has been occupied by a Republican since 1961, when Republican Clark MacGregor was first elected to the House. In 1970, MacGregor unsuccessfully challenged former Vice Presidential candidate Hubert Humphrey for one of the Minnesota Senate seats. MacGregor was replaced by fellow Republican Bill Frenzel, who served for twenty years.

Current Rep. Jim Ramstad was first elected to represent MN-3 in the House of Representatives in 1990. Ramstad, a lawyer, served in the Minnesota State Senate for eight years prior to his election to the House. In the House, Ramstad has had a moderate to conservative record. Ramstad, a member of the Ways and Means Committee, has supported free trade and President Bush's tax cuts. On social issues, the pro-choice Ramstad has broken with the Bush administration a number of issues, including stem cell research. A recovering alcoholic, Ramstad has played an active role in promoting measures to address substance abuse issues.

Unlike many other Republicans who faced tough challenges in 2006, Ramstad easily defeated Democratic challenger Wendy Wilde in this closely divided district. In September 2007, Ramstad decided to retire, stating, "I still have the passion for policy making, I still have the passion for politics but I want to be home." Ramstad's retirement instantly made MN-3 a top target for Democrats.

The Candidates.

Republicans.

The Republican candidate for this district is Minnesota State Rep. Erik Paulsen, a former staff member for Rep. Ramstad. Paulsen was first elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives in 1994, where he represents Edina and Eden Prairie. Paulsen formerly served a House Majority leader (the state GOP lost their House majority in 2006). Paulsen currently works as a business analyst for Target Corporation.

Paulsen has been embraced by the national GOP as one of the top GOP House candidates. In April, Paulsen stood unopposed for the Republican endorsement for this seat. Paulsen is considered to be one of the strongest Republican candidates in 2008. Paulsen raised $621,000 in the second quarter. Paulsen currently has $1.12 million cash on hand.

Democrat-Farmer-Labor.

The Democrat-Farmer-Labor candidate for MN-3 is Ashwin Madia. Madia, only 30 years old, has no experience running for public office. After completing college at the University of Minnesota, Madia attended the New York University School of Law. Madia, a former member of the U.S. Marine Corps, spent a bit more than six months in Iraq from 2005-2006.

When Rep. Ramstad retired, Madia lived in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District. Madia moved into MN-3 after launching his candidacy. Madia's primary opposition for the DFL nomination was State Senator Terri Bonoff. In March 2008, Madia won a majority of delegates in the senate district conventions across MN-3. At the state DFL convention in April 2008, Madia and Bonoff competed indecisively on eight ballots until Bonoff finally dropped out of the race.

Even though Madia had a later start than Republican Erik Paulsen in locking up the nomination, he had an impressive second quarter, raising $693,000. He has $738,000 cash on hand.

Summary and Analysis.

With two strong and well funded candidates, MN-03 will be very competitive race through Election Day. The Democrats are aggressively pursuing this seat, seeing it as one of their best opportunities to gain a Republican seat. Earlier this month, the DCCC pledged support to Madia, announcing that it has reserved $1.4 million in advertising in MN-03 to support Madia's candidacy.

Both Paulsen and Madia are relatively unknown and must introduce themselves to voters. Paulsen has stated "I'm more conservative than Ramstad . . . I'm more a Tim Pawlenty Republican.'' It remains to be seen how well Paulsen's conservatism will play in a district that has been closely divided in the last two Presidential elections. While the district embraced Rep. Ramstad's moderate politics, it remains to be seen whether Madia will be able to successfully exploit Paulsen's record as too conservative for MN-3.

Like Paulsen, Madia is relatively unknown. He has no voting record and no record in the public sphere. This can be both positive and negative. Madia's inexperience will make it difficult for opponents to attack him. Contrarily, Madia has never had to endure the rigors of running for office. So far, Madia has performed impressively - not only has he raised impressive sums of money, but he also defeated the more experienced State Sen. Bonoff for the MN-3 DFL nomination.

While Minnesota has been fairly close in recent Presidential elections, it looks as though Sen. Barack Obama currently maintains a healthy lead in the state. If Obama continues to perform well in Minnesota, he could help Madia slightly at the top of the ticket. That said, there is little chance of significant coattails. MN-3 has generally voted a bit more Republican than the state as a whole. Thus, even if Obama wins the state comfortably, his margin in MN-3 is still likely to be small.

It also remains to be seen what impact Independence Party nominee David Dillon could have on the race. Dillon grew up in a DFL household but later began to lean toward Republican positions on the economy. Dillon has since lost faith in the Republicans. Dillon's website lists Deficit & Debt Reduction and Clean, Abundant & Inexpensive Energy as key issues. While we don't expect Dillon to garner a significant share of the vote, anything could tip the scales if the race between Paulsen and Madia is very close come November.

MN-3 is truly a TOSS UP. Both Madia and Paulsen have yet to define the race, though both have displayed impressive fundraising capabilities. This race could really go any way. We will be closely following the race to provide you with continuous updates through Election Day.