State of the Day - Florida

Many Americans think of the Sunshine State as the ultimate swing state based on the “recount” of 2000. In truth, Florida leans a bit Republican. Al Gore ran ahead of most Democrats here in 2000, when the state ran about half a point more Republican than the nation as a whole. Bush won by 5 in 2004, about two points better than the national average. On a state level, Florida has elected a Republican Senator in 2004 and three straight times has voted a Republican for Governor. Democrats had some success here in House races in 2006, partly benefiting from odious Republicans Katherine Harris and Mark Foley, but did not see a sweep here like in some other states.

Barack Obama would love to win Florida in 2008. With money to spare he will go for it, especially since winning here would seal the White House. Yet, he polled awfully in Florida for most of the year. While polls in the last month have shown a closer race, Florida still appears to be a few points to the right of the nation. Democrats seek to induce a tidal wave of support here as they have in the Upper Midwest and gain ten points of support. It has not happened yet, however.


President - 27 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 48%, Bob Dole (R) 42%
2000: George Bush (R) 49%, Al Gore (D) 49%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 47%

During Democratic primary season, multiple polls showed Barack Obama trailing badly here, while Hillary Clinton had sizable leads. Now that Obama is the nominee, he has done better in polls. He still runs no better than even, however. Given a 4-6 point lead nationally, this indicates that if the election is down to the wire nationally, McCain would win Florida. He certainly cannot win without it.

It’s hard to see Obama winning here without at least a 3 point lead nationally. Perhaps a sustained effort will help him make this state relatively more Democratic, but I doubt it. To do so, he has two tactical imperatives. First, he must do well among Hispanics. It will be interesting to see how Obama's advocacy of negotiations with Raul Castro will play. Secondly, he cannot lose votes from the Jewish voters who make up a large part of the Democratic base in Florida.

Picking Charlie Crist as a VP would probably help McCain, but he shouldn’t need to do this. I think it will be close because I expect Obama to win by a few points nationally. I would be surprised if he won here, though.

Prediction: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 49%

Governor – Charlie Crist (R)

1998: Jeb Bush (R) 55%, Buddy MacKay (D) 45%
2002: Gov. Jeb Bush (R) 56%, Bill McBride (D) 43%
2006: Charlie Crist (R) 52%, Jim Davis (D) 45%

Crist remains solidly popular, with a 59% approval rating according to SurveyUSA. This and the state’s Republican bent make him a favorite for re-election in 2010, if not an overwhelming one. Some Republicans have threatened a primary challenge, calling Crist too moderate. At this point it’s hard to see that succeeding. Possible Democratic candidates include state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber (who is running for the State Senate this year), Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Representative Tim Mahoney, state CFO Alex Sink, and Rod Smith, who lost in the primary in 2006. None have the stature to threaten Crist absent a drop in the Governor’s popularity.

Some have suggested Crist, who endorsed McCain before the state’s crucial primary, as a running mate for McCain. This won’t happen for three reasons. First, with less than two years experience as a Governor, picking Crist would blunt the experience argument against Obama. Second, picking the moderate Crist would further alienate conservatives who don’t trust McCain. Third, as previously indicated, to win the election McCain will need Florida to be off the prime battleground list by Election Day. If he needs Crist to win Florida he’s finished regardless.

Senior Senator – Bill Nelson (D)

1994: Sen. Connie Mack (R) 70%, Hugh Rodham (D) 30%
2000: Bill Nelson (D) 51%, Bill McCollum (R) 46%
2006: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 60%, Katherine Harris (R) 38%

Nelson’s big win in 2006 owes more to the incompetence of Katherine Harris than anything Nelson did. Republicans have perennially hoped that their strongest candidate, Jeb Bush, would run, but he repeatedly declined interest. Governor Crist would be the second choice. If an election were held today, either of those two would be favored over Nelson. The Democrat would likely retain his seat against any other Republican who has expressed interest, including Representatives Gus Bilirakis Ginny Brown-Waite, Vern Buchanan, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Ric Keller, John Mica, Jeff Miller, and Cliff Stearns, State Attorney General Bill McCollum (who Nelson defeated in 2000), and Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton.

Junior Senator – Mel Martinez (R)

1992: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 65%, James Grant (R) 35%
1998: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 62%, Charlie Crist (R) 38%
2004: Mel Martinez (R) 49%, Betty Castor (D)

Mel Martinez and his bad toupee barely won in 2004. He does not seem to have become especially entrenched, and he will face a strong challenge in 2004. Republicans have rankled had his pro-immigration views, and some have suggested a primary, though that does not seem a serious threat.

The Democrats’ problem is that they don’t have a candidate both dynamic and known statewide. National Democrats want state CFO Alex Sink. Other possible candidates include State Senator Dave Aronberg, Jim Davis, state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (who has tried to convince Davis to run to replace her as mayor), and Representatives Allen Boyd, Kathy Castor, Ron Klein, Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Robert Wexler (who seems determined to run for some higher office). This race should take on some contour soon after the 2008 elections are over.

House 1 – Jeff Miller (R)

2002: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 75%, Bert Oram (D) 25%
2004: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 77%, Mark Coutu (D) 23%
2006: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 69%, Joe Roberts (D) 31%

Miller will have no problems beating Joe Roberts again in this heavily Republican Panhandle district.

House 2 – Allen Boyd (D)

2002: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 67%, Tom McGurk (R) 33%
2004: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 62%, Bev Kilmer (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) unopposed

This panhandle seat should be a swing district, but Boyd is entrenched. He won’t see a challenge in November.

House 3 – Corrine Brown (D)

2002: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) 59%, Jennifer Carroll (R) 41%
2004: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed.
2006: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed

Brown has survived ethical issues and is unopposed again in this grotesquely gerrymandered, heavily Democratic Jacksonville/Orlando district.

House 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)

2002: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) 70%, Robert Harms (D) 30%

Crenshaw has only token opposition in Democrat Jay McGovern to hold onto this heavily Republican, Tallahassee to Jacksonville North Florida district.

House 5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

2002: Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 48%, Rep. Karen Thurman (D) 46%
2004: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 66%, Robert Whittel (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 60%, John Russell (D) 40%

Brown-Waite’s biggest problem here is a primary challenge from religious conservative Jim King. Brown-Waite should survive the underfunded King, and in any event, the Democrats do not have a serious challenger in this Republican leaning Central Florida seat.

House 6 – Cliff Stearns (R)

2002: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 65%, David Bruderly (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 64%, David Bruderly (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 60%, David Bruderly (D) 40%

Stearns is safe against Democrat Timothy Cunha in this mostly Republican district.

House 7 – John Mica (R)

2002: Rep. John Mica (R) 60%, Wayne Hogan (D) 40%
2004: Rep. John Mica (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Mica (R) 63%, John Chagnon (D) 37%

Dear Representative Mica, you have no real opposition. Please take the spare time this fall to ditch your toupee. If you insist on having “hair”, please invest in something that costs more than the 57 cents you poured into your current rug. Sincerely, Beyond the Polls.

House 8 – Ric Keller (R)

2002: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 65%, Eddie Diaz (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 61%, Stephen Murray (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 53%, Charlie Stuart (D) 46%

Keller is breaking his term limits pledge in this swing district that he has easily held since 2000. Charlie Stuart is trying again, but has competition in the primary from multiple candidates. I like Michael Smith to win the Democratic primary. Keller, has a serious primary challenge from Todd Long, who is running hard on Keller’s broken pledge.

I like Keller to survive the primary, but his fundraising isn’t great so he may be in poor shape for the general. Then again, Democrats also have a primary. The Orlando based district is only marginally Republican (54% and 55% for George W. Bush). This promises to be a close race. I like Keller beating Smith by a smaller margin than Keller had in 2006. We’ll keep watching this race, and I suspect that will last beyond 2008.

House 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)

2002: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) 72%, Chuck Kalogianis (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) unopposed
2006: Gus Bilirakis (R) 56%, Phyllis Busansky (D) 44%

Democrat John Dicks is running hard, but he’s not going to win a Republican leaning seat that Democrats couldn’t win with a well funded challenger when it came open in the 2006 wave.

House 10 – Bill Young (R)

2002: Rep. Bill Young (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bill Young (R) 69%, Bob Derry (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Bill Young (R) 66%, Samm Simpson (D) 34%

This would be a swing district, but it is going to keep the veteran Young for as long as he runs. Democrat Max Linn can forget it.

House 11 – Kathy Castor (D)

2002: Rep. Jim Davis (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Jim Davis (D) unopposed
2006: Kathy Castor (D) 70%, Eddie Adams (R) 30%

Castor is unopposed in this heavily Democratic district.

House 12 – Adam Putnam (R)

2002: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) 65%, Bob Hagenmaier (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) unopposed

Democrats are not trying in this Republican leaning seat. Democrat Douglas Tudor is not a serious candidate.

House 13 – Vern Buchanan (R)

2002: Katherine Harris (R) 55%, Jan Schneider (D) 45%
2004: Rep. Katherine Harris (R) 55%, Jan Schneider (D) 45%
2006: Vern Buchanan (R) 50%, Christine Jennings (D) 50%

Christine Jennings is running very hard again after losing by 369 votes, and has raised over $1.2 million. Buchanan has nearly $3 million, plus an immense personal fortune. Democrats are targeting this Central Florida seat.

I think Buchanan should have an easier time of it in 2008. Last time, Buchanan had to deal not only with the wave, but the foibles of his predecessor’s faltering run for the Senate. He has the advantage of incumbency this time, plus he should benefit from John McCain. The district leans Republican (56% for Bush in 2004), and I think it will return the Republican Buchanan. It won’t, however, be easy for him.

House 14 – Connie Mack (R)

2002: Rep. Porter Goss (R) unopposed
2004: Connie Mack (R) 68%, Robert Neeld (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Connie Mack (R) 64%, Robert Neeld (D) 36%

Mack is so safe in this extremely Republican district that he can marry California Representative Mary Bono without sweating.

House 15 – Dave Weldon (R)

2002: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 63%, Jim Tso (D) 37%
2004: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 65%, Simon Pristoop (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 56%, Bob Bowman (D) 44%

Weldon is retiring, leaving a competitive race in this Republican leaning (57% for Bush in 2004) Brevard/Osceola seat. Republican Bill Posey managed to unite the local establishment.

Democrats could easily compete here, but they have several candidates for the August primary, none of whom has raised more than $35,000. That won’t cut it. Blythe should win, though Democrats may eventually show a pulse.

House 16 – Tim Mahoney (D)

2002: Rep. Mark Foley (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Mark Foley (R) 68%, Jeff Fisher (D) 32%
2006: Tim Mahoney (D) 50%, Joe Negron (R) 48%

Mahoney almost certainly owes his win in this convoluted Central Florida district to the fact that his opponent ran under the name of America’s most famous child predator. He won’t get that lucky again.

This district is often reported as “overwhelmingly Republican” when it is really a swing district. Bush won 53% and 54% here in his two elections. Mahoney got off to a rocky start, but now has raised over $2 million. Republicans meanwhile have a three way primary. State Representative Gayle Harrell is favored, but conservatives Hal Valeche and Tom Rooney are running strong. If the district really was solidly Republican, I’d probably say Mahoney would lose. However, its true nature plus the divided Republicans make Mahoney a slight favorite. We’ll be watching this one all the way through.

House 17 – Kendrick Meek (D)

2002: Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed

No Republican will ever win here, and nobody is trying.

House 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

2002: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 69%, Ray Chote (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 65%, Sam Sheldon (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 62%, David Patlack (D) 38%

Democrat Annette Taddeo has been running a quite aggressive race. However, there is no reason to think Ros-Lehtinen, ranking member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, is in any trouble in this Republican leaning seat.

House 19 – Rep. Robert Wexler (D)

2002: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) 72%, Jack Merkl (R) 28%
2004: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed

I’ve been seeing quite a few ads for Robert Wexler on the Internet (I do not live in Florida), which identify him as “Loud and Liberal”. Since Wexler clearly doesn’t need help to beat Republican Edward Lynch, I surmise he is angling for higher office.

House 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

2002: Rep. Peter Deutsch (D) unopposed
2004: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 70%, Margaret Hostetter (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) unopposed

Wasserman Schultz has no opponent in this heavily Democratic district.

House 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

2002: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 59%, Frank Gonzalez (D) 41%

Diaz-Balart has a real opponent for the first time this year. Democrat Raul Martinez has good name recognition and looks as if he can raise enough funds to be competitive. Diaz-Balart will almost certainly have the worst margin of his career.

That said, Diaz-Balart is still a clear favorite in this South Florida seat. He is no slouch himself and will outspend Martinez. He’s reasonably popular and hasn’t committed any missteps. Most importantly, the district leans Republican, giving George W. Bush 57% in 2004. At this point, it’s hard to see Obama helping the Democrat in this majority Hispanic (Cuban) seat. Martinez could win in a Democratic wave, but it isn’t likely.

House 22 – Ron Klein (D)

2002: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 61%, Carol Roberts (D) 39%
2004: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 63%, Robin Rorapaugh (R) 35%
2006: Ron Klein (D) 51%, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 47%

In a year as Democratic as 2006, it was pretty much inevitable that Klein would win this bizarrely shaped, Democratic leaning Broward/Palm Beach district. Klein has taken no chances, raising nearly $3 million.

Republicans have had trouble finding a candidate. It looks like Allen West will be the winner of the August primary. West will be horribly underfunded and has nothing to recommend him. Republicans are probably going to need to wait for the next Republican wave in order to beat Klein, if one ever comes.

House 23 – Alcee Hastings (D)

2002: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) 78%, Charles Laurie (R) 23%
2004: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D)

Hastings has easily had the best career of anyone impeached and removed from office in the nation’s history. Republican Marion Thorpe can try to do better than the 24% George W. Bush got here in 2004.

House 24 – Tom Feeney (R)

2002: Tom Feeney (R) 62%, Harry Jacobs (D) 38%
2004: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) 58%, Clint Curtis (D) 42%

Democrats decided to challenge Feeney after his unimpressive performance against bizarre challenger Clint Curtis in this Daytona/Space Coast swing district. Suzanne Kosmas is a serious favorite in the August primary, and is competitive with Feeney in fundraising.

Feeney had some ties to Jack Abramoff, but hasn’t been implicated in serious wrongdoing. The Democratic mood helps Kosmas. However, I still give Feeney a slight edge. The district is just a bit Republican, as George W. Bush got 53% and 55% here. I don’t see enough here yet to call Kosmas the favorite. I do think this election will be quite close, as Feeney just does not look all that impressive in any respect.

House 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

2002: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 65%, Annie Betancourt (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 58%, Michael Caldarin (D) 42%

Like Feeney, Diaz-Balart performed poorly against pathetic opposition in 2006. He faces a more vigorous challenge this year in his South Florida district from Joe Garcia.

Garcia has done reasonably well in fundraising. However, this district leans Republican (55% and 56% for George W. Bush), and Diaz-Balart has avoided negative publicity. Something else will need to happen for Garcia to win.

House Predictions: 16 Republicans, 9 Democrats…NO CHANGE