State of the Day - Idaho

Along with Utah, the Gem State has been among the most Republican states in recent times. Democrats simply do not win here. They had a “renaissance” in 2006, which means they lost races for Governor and House by respectable margins.

Not even the exploits of Senator Larry Craig in a Minneapolis restroom give Idaho Democrats any hope for 2008. Barack Obama’s ridiculously optimistic “expanded map” does not include Idaho, so at least there are some reasonable expectations left in Camp Obama. Idaho will be deep red again in 2008.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 52%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 34%
2000: George Bush (R) 67%, Al Gore (D) 28%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 68%, John Kerry (D) 30%

Republicans would need to nominate a ticket of Mark Foley and Duke Cunningham for Democrats to even think about winning here.

Prediction: McCain (R) 60%, Obama (D) 39%

Governor – Butch Otter (R)

1998: Dirk Kempthorne (R) 68%, Robert Huntley (D) 29%
2002: Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) 56%, Jerry Brady (D) 42%
2006: Butch Otter (R) 53%, Jerry Brady (D) 44%

The libertarian minded Governor Otter has high approval ratings and will be an overwhelming favorite for re-election. State Senate Minority Leader Clint Stennett is considered the best Democratic candidate. Lane Startin has expressed an interest. Barring unexpected events, neither will have much of a chance.

Senior Senator – Larry Craig (R)

1990: Larry Craig (R) 61%, Ron Twilegar (D) 39%
1996: Sen. Larry Craig (R) 57%, Walt Minnick (D) 49%
2002: Sen. Larry Craig (R) 65%, Alan Blinken (D) 33%

Much to the consternation of Democrats and comedians, Senator Wide Stance decided not to run for re-election. After some vacillation, he did not resign his seat and will fill out his term.

Republicans nominated Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, while Democrats went with Larry LaRocco. Not only is Idaho overwhelmingly Republican, but Risch defeated LaRocco for Lieutenant Governor in 2006 by nineteen points. LaRocco won’t win this time, either.

Prediction: Risch (R) 57%, LaRocco (D) 42%

Junior Senator – Mike Crapo (R)

1992: Dirk Kempthorne (R) 57%, Richard Stallings (D) 44%
1998: Mike Crapo (R) 70%, Bill Mauk (D) 28%
2004: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) unopposed

Democrats have no shot at beating Crapo in 2010. In case you were wondering, it is pronounced CRAY-po, not CRAH-po.

House 1 – Bill Sali (R)

2002: Rep. Butch Otter (R) 59%, Betty Richardson (D) 39%
2004: Rep. Butch Otter (R) 70%, Naomi Preston (D) 31%
2006: Bill Sali (R) 50%, Larry Grant (D) 45%

If it is possible for somebody to be too conservative for Idaho, it would be Sali. He won a fractious primary in 2006, then unimpressively won the general in this Southeast Idaho seat, which includes Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Twin Falls, and parts of Boise. He beat back another primary challenge this year and will take on Democrat Walt Minnick.

Minnick is a serious and respectable candidate. He has nearly doubled Sali’s fundraising to this point, and both Idaho and national Democrats have promoted his chances. He will certainly run ahead of a generic Democrat, and might approach the margin that Larry Grant lost with in 2006. Given Minnick’s strengths, Sali’s sluggish performances and his tendency to make verbal gaffes, it’s clear we will need to continue to follow the race. At this point, however, I simply cannot pick a Democrat to win a district that is so overwhelmingly Republican, especially in a presidential year. George W. Bush got 69% here in 2004.

House 2 – Mike Simpson (R)

2002: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 68%, Edward Kinghorn (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 71%, Lin Whitworth (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 62%, Jim Hansen (D) 34%

Simpson is a shoo-in in this heavily Republican district over underfunded Democrat Deborah Holmes.

House Predictions: 2 Republicans…NO CHANGE