State of the Day - Illinois

Once upon a time, the Prairie State was one of the main swing states in the nation. Democratic Chicago balanced Republican Downstate Illinois. Even into the 1990’s, the balance held while the suburbs tilted the results, going for Bill Clinton twice but Republican governors three times. Now, the suburbs have tilted Democratic and Chicago outweighs Downstate, giving the Democrats a clear edge. This is now a heavily Democratic state.

It has given the nation Barack Obama, who stands poised to become the first President from Illinois since Ulysses Grant. However, the state remains bedeviled by machine politics and corruption. The Daley Machine continues in Chicago, while Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich looks likely to join Republican predecessor George Ryan in prison. The balance of power may change, but some things remain the same.


President – 21 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 54%, Bob Dole (R) 37%
2000: Al Gore (D) 55%, George Bush (R) 43%
2004: John Kerry (D) 55%, Pres. George Bush (R) 44%

Barack Obama certainly will not “do a Gore” and lose his home state. Obama’s victory here won’t depend on his residence. Any sentient Democrat would win Illinois.

Prediction: Obama (D) 61%, McCain (R) 39%

Governor – Rod Blagojevich (D)

1998: George Ryan (R) 51%, Glenn Poshard (D) 48%
2002: Rod Blagojevich (D) 52%, Jim Ryan (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) 50%, Judy Topinka (R) 35%

Governor Blagojevich finds himself in all sorts of ethical trouble. He has been implicated in schemes involving kickbacks, bribery, use of undue influence, and inappropriate use of state transportation. He was mentioned as an unindicted “Public Official A” receiving bribes in the indictment of Tony Rezko, often noted as a friend and benefactor of Senator Obama. An associate of Rezko’s, Ali Ata, fingered Blagojevich directly from wrongdoing. It has been rumored that Rezko may do the same to try to reduce his prison sentence.

Given all this, it seems unlikely Blagojevich will finish his term. However, we here at Beyond the Polls assume officeholders will run for re-election until they announce their retirement. Blagojevich would almost certainly face a primary opponent in 2010. If he did survive, he’d be hard pressed to survive any Republican, among them Bill Brady, State Senator Christine Radogno, and Judy Topinka. Democrats would be favored to hold this seat if Blagojevich left, even though his stink would complicate things. If Blagojevich goes for another term he is highly likely to lose.

Senior Senator – Richard Durbin (D)

1990: Sen. Paul Simon (D) 65%, Lynn Martin (R) 35%
1996: Richard Durbin (D) 56%, Al Salvi (R) 41%
2002: Sen. Richard Durbin (D) 60%, Jim Durkin (R) 38%

The Majority Whip is totally safe against outgunned Republican Steve Sauerberg.

Prediction: Sen. Durbin (D) 61%, Sauerberg (R) 38%

Junior Senator – Barack Obama (D)

1992: Carol Moseley-Braun (D) 53%, Richard Williamson (R) 43%
1998: Peter Fitzgerald (R) 50%, Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D) 47%
2004: Barack Obama (D) 70%, Alan Keyes (R) 27%

Whether or not Obama would have to return to the Senate after this election, this seat should remain Democratic. Blagojevich could appoint a replacement from an endless list of contenders. Representatives Mark Kirk and John Shimkus would be the best Republican nominee.

As an aside, the Illinois Republican Party’s invitation of Alan Keyes to come to Illinois and run for the Senate was one of the most boneheaded moves in recent political history. Running Keyes is bad enough. Asking him to come to your state specifically to run is an embarrassment. His ludicrous performance was totally predictable, and obviously the consequences for conservatives nationwide may be profound.

House 1 – Bobby Rush (D)

2002: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 81%, Raymond Wardingley (R) 18%
2004: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 85%, Raymond Wardingley (R) 15%
2006: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 84%, Jason Tabour (R) 16%

Republicans will never win this seat. GOP nominee Antoine Members is wasting his time.

House 2 – Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)

2002: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) 82%, Doug Nelson (R) 18%
2004: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) 85%, Robert Belin (R) 12%

This seat is more likely to elect a child molester (which it did with Rep. Mel Reynolds, 1993-95) than a Republican (never has). Republican Anthony Williams has zero shot.

House 3 – Daniel Lipinski (D)

2002: Rep. Bill Lipinski (D) unopposed
2004: Daniel Lipinski (D) 73%, Ryan Chlada (D) 25%
2006: Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D) 77%, Raymond Wardingley (R) 23%

Republican Michael Hawkins is headed straight to defeat in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 4 – Luis Gutierrez (D)

2002: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 80%, Tony Cisneros (R) 15%
2004: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 84%, Tony Cisneros (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 86%, Ann Melichar (R) 14%

Gutierrez faces no competition from Republican Daniel Cunningham in one of the nation’s most Democratic seats.

House 5 – Rahm Emanuel (D)

2002: Rahm Emanuel (D) 67%, Mark Augusti (R) 29%
2004: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) 76%, Bruce Best (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) 78%, Kevin White (R) 22%

Republican Tom Hanson poses no obstacle to Emauel’s path to the Speakership in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 6 – Peter Roskam (R)

2002: Rep. Henry Hyde (R) 65%, Tom Berry (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Henry Hyde (R) 56%, Christine Cegelis (R) 44%
2006: Peter Roskam (R) 51%, Tammy Duckworth (D) 49%

This once heavily Republican suburban Chicago district has become a prime swing district (53% for George Bush in 2004). Roskam barely took this seat in 2006, but has raised quite a bit of money in defense. He’s raised about a million more dollars than Democrat Jill Morgenthaler.

Morgenthaler bears some resemblance to 2006 Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth. Both are female Iraq war veterans highly touted by the party. Morgenthaler may benefit from Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Roskam has to be favored as he won this open seat in the horrible year of 2006 and has more money. Incumbency can only help him. It should be close, but Roskam starts off as the favorite.

House 7 – Danny Davis (D)

2002: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 83%, Mark Tunney (R) 15%
2004: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 86%, Antonio Davis-Fairman (R) 14%
2006: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 87%, Charles Hutchinson (R) 13%

Look at those percentages and tell me with a straight face that Republican Steve Miller has a chance.

House 8 – Melissa Bean (D)

2002: Rep. Phil Crane (R) 57%, Melissa Bean (D) 43%
2004: Melissa Bean (D) 52%, Rep. Phil Crane (R) 48%
2006: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) 51%, David McSweeney (R) 44%

Bean will forever be targeted in this Republican leaning suburban Chicago district. She will heavily outspend Democrat Steve Greenberg, who had to spend most of the $520,000 he has raised to win the primary. Bean has over $2 million.

Bean will be in severe danger if the Republicans ever have a wave election of their own. That won’t occur in 2008. Combining her previous success here, the Democratic climate, her money advantage, and the boost from favorite son Obama, Bean is a solid favorite for reelection.

House 9 – Jan Schakowsky (D)

2002: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 70%, Nicholas Duric (R) 27%
2004: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 76%, Kurt Eckhardt (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 75%, Michael Shannon (R) 25%

Republican Michael Younan has no shot at beating Schakowsky in this heavily Democratic district.

House 10 – Mark Kirk (R)

2002: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 69%, Hank Perritt (D) 31%
2004: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 64%, Lee Goodman (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 53%, Dan Seals (D) 47%

Kirk is a natural target in this Democratic leaning district in the Northern Chicago suburbs. However, he handled a serious challenge from Democrats in 2006 better than most Republicans. Seals is running hard again, and while Kirk will outspend both will have their share of money, especially once the DCCC inevitably steps in.

Seals hopes that Obama can put him over the top, which may happen. I give a slight edge to Kirk, however. Candidates who make second attempts against the same candidate don’t have much success, and other than the top of the ticket not much seems to have changed here. Kirk obviously has some appeal in the district, so the circumstances give him a slight, and I do mean slight, edge. This should be one of the closest contests in the nation.

House 11 – Jerry Weller (R)

2002: Rep. Jerry Weller (R) 64%, Keith Van Duyne (D) 36%
2004: Rep. Jerry Weller (R) 59%, Tari Renner (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Jerry Weller (R) 55%, John Pavich (R) 45%

Weller retired to “spend more time with his family,” which is code for “I’m being investigated for ethical issues.” Thus, this Central Illinois seat which includes parts of Joliet and Bloomington has come open.

The Republicans find themselves in serious trouble here. The GOP nominee withdrew after the primary, leaving the party to nominate businessman Martin Ozinga, who has yet to make a dent on the campaign trail. State Senate Majority Debbie Halvorson got the nod for the Democrats. She makes a strong candidate in a Democratic year in an area that has trended Democratic. Combined with Republican disarray, I can’t bet against Halvorson. This is going to be a Democratic pickup.

House 12 – Jerry Costello (D)

2002: Rep. Jerry Costello (D) 69%, David Sadler (R) 31%
2004: Rep. Jerry Costello (D) 69%, Erin Zweigart (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Jerry Costello (D)

Republicans could do better than the token challenge of Tim Richardson in this Democratic leaning seat.

House 13 – Judy Biggert (R)

2002: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 70%, Thomas Mason (D) 30%
2004: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 65%, Gloria Andersen (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 58%, Joseph Shannon (D) 42%

Democrats could win this Republican leaning seat under the right circumstances. Biggert has done well here though, and while Democrat Scott Harper looks to peform respectably, he won’t win.

House 14 – Bill Foster (D)

2002: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) 74%, Laurence Quick (D) 26%
2004: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) 69%, Ruben Zamora (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) 60%, Jonathan Laesch (D) 40%
2008 special: Bill Foster (D) 53%, Jim Oberweis (R) 48%

This North Central Illnois district leans Republican, but Foster took it in a special election that led many pundits nationally to suggest that Republicans are in for a long year. On top of all their endemic problems, Oberweis was a horribly unappealing candidate, as proved by his many previous losses for political office.

Any Republican in this district cannot help but provide competition for a Democratic incumbent. However, the Republicans nominated Oberweis again, which limits their chances. I’d be surprised if Foster did not repeat his victory in November.

House 15 – Tim Johnson (R)

2002: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 65%, Joshua Hartke (D) 31%
2004: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 61%, David Gill (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 58%, David Gill (D) 42%

Johnson is not getting a serious challenge from Democrat Tim Cox in this Republican leaning seat.

House 16 – Don Manzullo (R)

2002: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 71%, John Kutsch (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 69%, John Kutsch (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 64%, Richard Auman (D) 32%

Some have tried to talk up Democrat Robert Abboud, but I see no evidence Manzullo won’t win in this Republican leaning district.

House 17 – Phil Hare (D)

2002: Rep. Lane Evans (D) 62%, Peter Calderone (R) 38%
2004: Rep. Lane Evans (D) 61%, Andrea Zinga (R) 39%
2006: Phil Hare (D) 57%, Andrea Zinga (R) 43%

Hare surprisingly has no opposition in this district that merely leans Democrat.

House 18 – Ray LaHood (R)

2002: Rep. Ray LaHood (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Ray LaHood (R) 70%, Steve Waterworth (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Ray LaHood (R) 67%, Steve Waterworth (D) 33%

LaHood is retiring from this Republican leaning, Peoria based, Central Illinois district. Bush got 58%, but Democrats could certainly take this seat.

So far, however, the Republicans look in strong shape to hold here. Republican Aaron Schock has impressively raised over $1 million (though he spent much of it winning the primary), while Democrat Colleen Callahan has raised less than $150,000. That sort of performance will not convince the DCCC to fund this race. I can’t find any polling, but this looks like a second tier race for the Democrats. Schock should hold this seat for the Republicans.

House 19 – John Shimkus (R)

2002: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 55%, Rep. David Phelps (D) 45%
2004: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 69%, Tim Bagwell (D) 31%
2006: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 61%, Danny Stover (D) 39%

Shimkus will crush Democrat Daniel Davis in this mostly Republican district.

House Predictions: 12 Democrats, 7 Republicans…+1 DEMOCRATS