State of the Day - Indiana

The Hoosier State has been a pretty reliably Republican state on the Presidential level, last going Democrat in the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. Yet, it has had competitive state politics. It had Democratic Governors from 1989-2005 and comfortably reelects its moderate Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, just as it does its moderate Republican Richard Lugar.

While not mentioned in the same breath as Virginia or Colorado, Indiana seems to be trending Democratic as well. In the tradition of close House races here, the Democrats picked up three seats in 2004. Republican Governor Mitch Daniels looks to have a tough re-election fight as well. Most importantly, Barack Obama is polling very well here. Reliably red Indiana may be tinting blue.


President – 11 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 47%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 42%
2000: George Bush (R) 57%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 60%, John Kerry (D) 39%

We have too much evidence to deny now that normally bright red Indiana is competitive. Since April, Obama has led in three of four polls taken here. The last poll, a SurveyUSA poll taken in June, showed Obama leading by one point. I don’t think Obama is actually leading here for two reasons. First, most of the polls were taken in April, when Obama was competing heavily in the state’s primary. Second, the recent poll comes from SurveyUSA, which has tended to favor Obama in Republican states.

I do think Indiana will be close, however. Obama has a few advantages. First, he seems to be doing well in non-Southern states with a significant white, rural population (Alaska, Montana, North Dakota). This combines with a decent population of blacks in Indianapolis and Gary. In particular, Gary could benefit from a turnout drive, as it generally has very low turnout. Also, Indiana has a surfeit of college students and university towns like Bloomington, Evansville, West Lafayette, and South Bend. All of this combines to give Obama a solid base. Third, he is from neighboring Illinois, which couldn’t hurt.

Despite Obama leading by half a point in the Real Clear Politics average, I’m not ready to predict he’ll win the state. I do think it will be a dogfight though. This would indicate that Obama leads nationally by a few points, so if we’re watching this state in October the election is already over.

Prediction: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 49%

Governor – Mitch Daniels (R)

1996: Frank O’Bannon (D) 52%, Stephen Goldsmith (R) 47%
2000: Gov. Frank O’Bannon (D) 57%, David McIntosh (R) 42%
2004: Mitch Daniels (R) 53%, Gov. Joe Kernan (D) 45%

Governor Daniels has had a rocky term as Governor in many ways. He garnered extremely negative publicity for a plan to sell the Indiana Toll Road to a private operator. Many opposed his insistence that Indiana adopt Daylight Savings Time. Nobody could possibly like his combover. Nevertheless, he has recovered somewhat.

Democrats nominated former Representative Jill Long Thompson in an extremely narrow primary. The divided party does not help her. Polls have repeatedly showed Daniels with a narrow lead, usually hovering right at the 50% mark. This gives him a moderate edge, but certainly not a slam dunk. If Obama runs well and spends money on organization in Indiana, this could get very interesting.

Prediction: Gov. Daniels (R) 54%, Thompson (D) 45%

Senior Senator – Richard Lugar (R)

1994: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) 67%, Jim Jontz (D) 31%
2000: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) 67%, David Johnson (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) unopposed

The chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party called Senator Lugar “beloved”. He’s not going anywhere except of his own volition.

Junior Senator – Evan Bayh (D)

1992: Sen. Dan Coats (R) 57%, Joseph Hogsett (D) 41%
1998: Evan Bayh (D) 64%, Paul Helmke (R) 35%
2004: Sen. Evan Bayh (D) 62%, Marvin Scott (R) 37%

Senator Bayh ran 23 points ahead of John Kerry in 2004, and will be heavily favored over any potential Republican challenger. In order of seriousness, potential challengers include Governor Mitch Daniels, Representatives Mike Pence, Steve Buyer, and Mark Souder, Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman, and Mike Sodrel.

The moderate Bayh would seem to be a prime pick for Vice President, especially if Barack Obama feels that he can take Indiana.

House 1 – Peter Visclosky (D)

2002: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 67%, Mark Leyva (R) 31%
2004: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 68%, Mark Leyva (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 70%, Mark Leyva (R) 27%

Republican Mark Leyva is clearly not the guy who is going to break through in this mostly Democratic district.

House 2 – Joe Donnelly (D)

2002: Chris Chocola (R) 51%, Jill Thompson (D) 46%
2004: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 54%, Joe Donnelly (D) 45%
2006: Joe Donnelly (D) 54%, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 46%

This seat went Democratic in the wave of 2006. While it has a history of going Democratic, on balance this South Bend/Elkhart/Kokomo North Central Indiana seat leans Republican.

That said, Donnelly looks in strong position to pull off another win. He has raised nearly $2 million, dwarfing Republican Luke Puckett’s total. The NRCC is not very optimistic about their chances here. Donnelly won’t win a landslide, but he looks safe until the next Republican (or even neutral) year comes around.

House 3 – Mark Souder (R)

2002: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 63%, Jay Rigdon (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 69%, Maria Parra (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 54%, Thomas Hayhurst (D) 46%

Souder survived a strong challenge in 2006 in this heavily Republican Fort Wayne based seat. He is getting another strong challenge from Democrat Michael Montagano.

Montagano has been competitive in fundraising. Souder was outspent in 2006, and could probably stand to pick up his game a notch. Nevertheless, this district goes heavily Republican, to the tune of 68% for George Bush in 2004. I simply cannot say the Democrat is a favorite in a district this Republican. Look for Souder to win by a similar margin to 2006, maybe a bit smaller.

House 4 – Steve Buyer (R)

2002: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 71%, Bill Abbott (D) 26%
2004: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 69%, David Sanders (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 62%, David Sanders (D) 38%

Buyer will easily handle a surprisingly strong challenge from faux-Dutchman Democrat Nels Ackerman in this heavily Democratic district.

House 5 – Dan Burton (R)

2002: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 72%, Katherine Carr (D) 25%
2004: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 72%, Katherine Carr (D) 26%
2006: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 65%, Katherine Carr (D) 31%

Democrat Mary Ruley will take the place of Katherine Carr for this year’s drumming in one of the most Republican districts in the country (71% for Bush in 2004).

House 6 – Mike Pence (R)

2002: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 64%, Melina Fox (D) 34%
2004: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 67%, Melina Fox (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 60%, Barry Welsh (D) 40%

Barry Welsh will lose badly again in this heavily Republican district.

House 7 – Andre Carson (D)

2002: Rep. Julia Carson (D) 53%, Brose McVey (R) 44%
2004: Rep. Julia Carson (D) 54%, Andy Horning (R) 44%
2006: Rep. Julia Carson (D) 54%, Eric Dickerson (R) 46%
2007 special: Andre Carson (D) 54%, Jon Elrod (R) 43%

Republicans initially targeted this seat due to the unimpressive performances of Representative Julia Carson against underfunded Republicans in this mostly Democratic Indianapolis seat. However, Carson died last year and her grandson Andre won the special election against a respectable opponent.

Jon Elrod was the GOP nominee for the November election, but he dropped out and Republicans don’t have a candidate. Even if they find one, it’s hard to see them donating any resources to this long shot. Carson might get a test in the right year, but he looks safe for 2008.

House 8 – Brad Ellsworth (D)

2002: Rep. John Hostettler (R) 51%, Bryan Hartke (D) 46%
2004: Rep. John Hostettler (R) 53%, Jon Jennings (D) 45%
2006: Brad Ellsworth (D) 61%, Rep. John Hostettler (R) 39%

Ellsworth’s win in this mostly Republican Terre Haute/Evansville based seat was astounding. That said, he certainly ran well to the right of his party and Barack Obama. One would expect Ellsworth to see serious competition in a district (“The Bloody Eighth”) that has a tradition of it.

Republicans nominated Greg Goode, who has struggled to raise funds (unlike Ellsworth) and gotten little notice. He’ll certainly need more than the $45,000 he has on hand now to compete. So far, Barack Obama doesn’t look like a handicap here. Ellsworth should see serious challenges as long as he holds this seat, and he may eventually lose, but it won’t be in 2008.

House 9 – Baron Hill (D)

2002: Rep. Baron Hill (D) 51%, Mike Sodrel (R) 46%
2004: Mike Sodrel (R) 49%, Rep. Baron Hill (D) 49%
2006: Baron Hill (D) 50%, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) 45%

Someday, Hill and Mike Sodrel can form a vaudeville act recreating their battles. For now, however, they are tangoing for the fourth time. Sodrel is clearly a serious challenger, and he will be well funded (though Hill should be even better funded). He’s beaten Hill once (by 1,425 votes), so you know he can do it. Even so, I expect Hill to win this mostly Republican Bloomington/Jeffersonville seat for the third time.

Hill’s wins over Sodrel have been larger than Sodrel’s one win. In addition, the anti-GOP mood in Indiana doesn’t seem to have abated much. The scene looks more like 2006 than 2004, which obviously works to Hill’s advantage. Even though this is not good Democratic territory (56% and 59% for George W. Bush, Hill begins as a moderate favorite.

House Predictions: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans…NO CHANGE