State of the Day - Kentucky

The Bluegrass State has turned more Republican over the past thirty years, but it has not changed all that much. It still has a mostly rural, older population, relatively few minorities, and values cultural conservatism and economic populism (especially with regards to tobacco). While Confederate General Braxton Bragg tried hard to force Kentucky to join the South in the Civil War, the Commonwealth of Kentucky has always been more Appalachia than Dixie.

Bill Clinton carried Kentucky twice, but George W. Bush easily took it in the last two elections. Democrats can be competitive with a southern accented ticket, but otherwise the state goes Republican. Kentucky does have a major Democratic presence, however, and the Democrats picked up a House seat in 2006 and the Governor’s Mansion in 2007


President – 8 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 46%, Bob Dole (R) 45%
2000: George Bush (R) 57%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 60%, John Kerry (D) 40%

Barack Obama took a horrific beating in the primary. Indeed, polls showed Hillary Clinton very competitive here against John McCain while also showing Obama well behind the Republican. Any hope of a race here disappeared with Clinton. Obama doesn’t even have this on his “in my dreams expanded map” list he released. McCain’s got Kentucky in the bag.

Prediction: McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 42%

Governor – Steven Beshear (D)

1999: Gov. Paul Patton (D) 61%, Peppy Martin (R) 22%
2003: Ernie Fletcher (R) 55%, Ben Chandler (D) 45%
2007: Steven Beshear (D) 59%, Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) 41%

Governor Beshear won easily over scandal tarred Ernie Fletcher last November. His legislative centerpiece in his first seven months in office involves the legalization of casino gambling. As of May, SurveyUSA indicated an approval-disapproval rating of 44-50. If that holds up he will find himself in serious trouble in 2011. Handicapping this more than three years before the election does not accomplish much, but it’s what we do here. Given his numbers to this point and Kentucky’s Republican bent, Beshear has a less than 50% chance at this point of winning another term. He shouldn’t worry, however, as he has almost an entire term to better position himself.

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

1990: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 52%, Harvey Sloane (D) 48%
1996: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 55%, Steven Beshear (D) 43%
2002: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 65%, Lois Weinberg (D) 35%

Democrats always make an effort to pick off the Minority Leader, and always come up short. Citing low approval ratings (though SurveyUSA said McConnell had 58% approval in May) and ties to President Bush, they are trying again in the form of Bruce Lunsford.

Democrats are talking Lunsford up, but he is not going to win. As Minority Leader McConnell can call on essentially unlimited resources, and unlike Tom Daschle in 2004, the state’s political bent works in his favor. McConnell is an aggressive and creative political operator who has survived tougher races than this. Other than one obvious outlier (a May Rasmussen poll showing Lunsford up five points), polls consistently show McConnell with a lead around ten points. Lunsford will do a bit better than that, but he’ll know before Election Day that he’s headed for defeat.

Prediction: Sen. McConnell (R) 54%, Lunsford (D) 46%

Junior Senator – Jim Bunning (R)

1992: Sen. Wendell Ford (D) 63%, David Williams (R) 36%
1998: Jim Bunning (R) 50%, Scotty Baesler (D) 49%
2004: Sen. Jim Bunning (R) 51%, Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49%

Senator Bunning may be the most conservative member of the upper chamber, but that doesn’t explain why he almost lost in 2004. Rather, Bunning embarked on a breathtaking series of gaffes, including using a teleprompter during a debate, insinuating his opponent was a homosexual, and claiming not to watch or read the news. Some questioned whether or not the Baseball Hall of Famer had gone senile. Democrats hope Representative Ben Chandler will challenge him in 2010. Lesser hopes include Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, Steve Henry, Brereton Jones, State Auditor Crit Luallen, Ken Lucas, Jonathan Miller, State House Speaker Jody Richards. Greg Stumbo Representative John Yarmuth. Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo also may seek a rematch.

The May approval rating poll had Bunning at a 49-40 approval-disapproval rating. This makes him very vulnerable, though he could certainly win. Chandler might be a slight favorite, Bunning probably has an edge over anybody else, absent more bizarre behavior. Two and a half years out, we’ll rate it a slight edge to the Republicans.

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

2002: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 62%, Klint Alexander (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 67%, Billy Cartwright (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 60%, Tom Barlow (D) 40%

Democrat Heather Ryan was fired from her job as a theatre manager over her political activism. That’s really tragic for her, since she has no chance to win this heavily Republican seat.

House 2 – Ron Lewis (R)

2002: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) 70%, David Williams (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) 68%, Adam Smith (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) 55%, Mike Weaver (D) 45%

Lewis retired from this heavily Republican Central Kentucky seat after a less than scintillating victory in 2006. Emboldened by success, Democrats are running hard with State Senator David Boswell. After some intraparty hijinks, Republicans settled on State Senator Steven Guthrie.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances here, but I can’t pick them to pick up a seat that voted 65% for George W. Bush in 2004 without more evidence than we have so far. It does not help that Guthrie has $381,000 on hand to Boswell’s $15,000. This looks like a Republican hold to me.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

2002: Rep. Anne Northup (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 48%
2004: Rep. Anne Northup (R) 60%, Tony Miller (D) 38%
2006: John Yarmuth (D) 51%, Rep. Anne Northup (R) 48%

Democrats had targeted this Louisville swing district for years, and finally toppled Anne Northup in the 2006 wave. Northup then lost a primary challenge to Governor Ernie Fletcher before running to get her old seat back.

She has her work cut out for her here. No longer an incumbent, she won’t outspend Yarmuth this time. The political climate which defeated her has not changed much. If Barack Obama does lead to increase in black turnout, that will hurt her in a district 19% black. Northup is a strong candidate and will run a good race. She’s still an underdog because not much has changed here in two years. It is hard to see how she wins in this climate after losing as the incumbent in 2006. Yarmuth will probably need to help her out for her to pull it off.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

2002: Rep. Ken Lucas (D) 51%, Geoff Davis (R) 48%
2004: Geoff Davis (R) 54%, Nick Clooney (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 52%, Ken Lucas (D) 43%

If the popular former Congressman Ken Lucas couldn’t win here in 2006, it’s never going to happen. Davis is safe against Democrat Michael Kelley.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

2002: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) 78%, Sidney Bailey (D) 22%
2004: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) 74%, Kenneth Stepp (D) 26%

Democrats could conceivably win this district, but they aren’t going to bother trying until Rogers retires. He’s unopposed.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

2002: Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R) unopposed
2004 special: Ben Chandler (D) 55%, Alice Kerr (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 59%, Tom Buford (R)
2006: Ben Chandler (D) unopposed

I realize Chandler is popular and these aren’t good times for the GOP, but Republicans should be ashamed of themselves for putting up the pathetic efforts of Tom Larson in a district which gave George W. Bush 58% of the vote in 2004.

House Predictions: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats…NO CHANGE