State of the Race

In this week's column, we will take a more detailed look at the state by state situation and put each state into "tiers" of competitiveness. Future columns will use this format and then examine closer why states and race have moved as the situation changes.

President, Governor, and Senate races are on four tiers. Tier I is the battleground, where the races are currently too close to pick a real favorite, "tossup" in handicapping parlance. Beyond the Polls does assign a favorite to these races but they are tenuous and very fluid. If the election would occur today these races could go either way. Tier II races have a definite favorite, but the race will be competitive and could easily hit the tossup column as the race shifts. Tier III races are long shots for the underdog. Both parties are respectable and running campaigns, but it would take a seismic shift of the fundamental dynamics to put the races in play. Tier IV races are not competitive and will not be competitive.

House races have their own tier system, which I will describe below.

As always, we provide a current outlook with the result as if the election would occur today.


President

By all accounts McCain had a bad week. He continues to struggle to generate any sort of positive publicity, and had to deal with Phil Gramm's comment about a "nation of whiners". None of this will matter much, as it does not seem many voters are focused on the race.

The only national poll of note this week comes from Pew, which shows Obama with an eight point lead. This seems a bit high, but we can pretty much count on Obama maintaining at least a three point lead at this point. Interestingly, Rasmussen's favorability polls showed McCain (57-40) with better favorable/unfavorable ratings than Obama (54-44). Obama has slowly come down in this regard, but he still benefits from a good Democratic climate and dislike of President Bush.

As of today, the tiers of states look like this. States flipping from 2004 in bold.

Tier I

Obama (22) - Colorado, Virginia

McCain (75) - Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota

You might see these states in the Leaning (or more McCain column in other analyses. This lineup shows McCain's problems. Obama has 270 votes without even needing any of these states, which indicates he would definitely win the election if held today. McCain needs all these states in order to win.

As I've noted before, we're getting polls in wipeout states more than close states. We did get two polls in Missouri this week showing McCain up 2 (PPP) and 5 (Rasmussen). Rasmussen also shows McCain up by 1 in North Dakota. Obama continually does well in Northwestern states with rural population (Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Indiana), and I've seen enough to make me think it is real, for whatever reason.

I flip Virginia because I think the race is so close that McCain's bad week makes the difference, at least for this week. If the race was held today I think Virginia would come down to a less than one percent margin.

Tier II

Obama (49) - Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio

McCain (3) - Alaska

These Obama states are usually mentioned as the closest states. They aren't right now, but for McCain to win he MUST make these states the battlegrounds. They are the most important states, even if they aren't the closest as of now.

Tier III

Obama (57) - New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

McCain (81) - Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia

A Rasmussen poll showed Obama up only 3 in New Jersey. I don't believe New Jersey will be close, but I will move New Jersey up to Tier III for now. Rasmussen had Obama up 10 in Wisconsin, consistent with every other poll there. Wisconsin has shifted blue from the dead heat it was in 2000 and 2004. Obama seems to do well in northwest states with few minorities and a heavily rural population (Wisconsin, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana).


Tier IV

Obama (188) - California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

McCain (73) - Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming

For whatever reason we got a ton of polls from these states this week. Rasmussen has Obama up 24 in Rhode Island, 11 in Illinois, and 8 in Washington. AEA has McCain up 13 in Alabama. TargetPoint has McCain up 13 in Kansas. Pan Atlantic has Obama up 11 in Maine (with almost 40% undecided!). Why are these people polling these states?

Current Outlook

Electoral Vote
Obama 306 (pick up CO, IA, NM, OH, VA)
McCain 232

Popular Vote
Obama 51.4%
McCain 48.1%

Governors

This is simply not an interesting year in gubernatorial races.

Democrats hold a 22-17 edge in Governors not up for election this year. Projected pickups in bold.

Tier I

Democrat (1) - North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring)

Tier II

NONE

Tier III

Democrat (2) - Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring), Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Tier IV

Democrat (3) - Delaware (Ruth Minner retiring), Montana (Brian Schweitzer), New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Republican (4) - Indiana (Mitch Daniels), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Utah (Jon Huntsman), Vermont (Jim Douglas)

A Bellwether poll in Indiana showed Governor Daniels leading by 14 points. Other polls have shown him way ahead as well. I don't think he'll win by that much, but the once vulnerable Daniels looks very safe.

Current Outlook
Democrats 29 (pick up MO)
Republicans 21

Senate

The Democrats are guaranteed to pick up at least three seats in the Senate. They look highly unlikely to get the filibuster proof sixty seats. A pickup of six seats looks to be the realistic max. I think it will be five in the end (though Democrats currently lead the Mississippi special election, I think the Republicans will hold it in the end).

It was a slow week in Senate news.

Democrats lead the seats not up for election 39-26

Tier I

Democrat (2) - Alaska (Ted Stevens), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker)

Tier II

Democrat (1) - Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Tier III

Democrat (1) - Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring)

Republican (4) - Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Oregon (Gordon Smith), Texas (John Cornyn)

Al Franken officially filed for Senate this week. However, the big news out of Minnesota involved the idea that former Governor Jesse Ventura would run as an Independent. He'll decide by this week. In either event, Coleman looks good. Franken has struggled mightily and has a serious back tax problem. Ventura could take away votes from disaffected Democrats. If Franken drops farther, Ventura could become the de facto Democratic nominee (a la Joe Lieberman for Republicans in Connecticut in 2006). In any event, Ventura was horribly unpopular at the end of the term and doesn't look to be anything more than a spoiler. Coleman may not win as much as his opponents will lose, but the result is the same.

Tier IV

Democrat (14) - Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph Biden), Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), New Hampshire (John Sununu), New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (John Warner retiring), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (13) - Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Idaho (Larry Craig retiring), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Maine (Susan Collins), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oklahoma (James Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Wyoming (Michael Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

Pat Roberts released an internal poll showing him leading challenger Jim Slattery in Kansas. Despite some Democratic enthusiasm, Roberts will win easily.

Some will undoubtedly question my placing Maine Senator Susan Collins in the locks in Tier IV. She has good ratings and has outpolled Democrat Rep. Tom Allen easily. A SMS Poll released this week showed her leading Allen 56-31. Allen looks good on paper but has gotten no traction and looks done.

Current Outlook:
Democrats 57 (pick up AK, CO, MS (special), NH, NM, VA)
Republicans 43

House

We divide House races into five tiers. The first three tiers remain the same as above. Tier IV races for House are those where the underdog is running a decent campaign and the race may potentially become competitive, but where at least for the moment there is a heavy favorite. Tier V races are those that are wholly uncompetitive, usually either because one party isn't really challenging or the district is totally one sided. I won't list those races, but will provide a count.

House races don't tend to shape up until after Labor Day. Thus, we have alot of Tier IV races at this point. Some of them will inevitably become closer, and some will drop off the map as we move forward.

Tier I

Democrat (5) - AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring), AK-AL (Don Young), KS-2 (Nancy Boyda), NJ-7 (Robert Ferguson retiring), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring)

Republican (6) - LA-6 (Don Cazayoux), MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring), NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring), NC-8 (Robin Hayes), OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring), WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Things just continue to get worse for Don Young in Alaska. Environmental groups are now spending large amounts of money against him. His chances of winning keep sinking. Republicans are hoping he loses the primary to Lt. Governor Sean Parnell, and the odds of that are probably increasing.

NM-1 Democrat Martin Heinrich released an internal poll showing up three points. Other polling shows Republican Darren White ahead. White is one of the most impressive Republican candidates. Combined with the oddity of Heinrich releasing a poll showing him barely ahead, I'm inclined to think White has a small lead. I'm flipping the race to him this week, but it will be close until the end.

The home of WA-8 Democrat nominee Darcy Burner burned down last week. The race remains too close to call, but that can't help Burner.

Tier II

Democrat (5) - AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney), FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), PA-10 (Christopher Carney), TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

Republican (6) - CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring), NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl)

Tier III

Democrat (5) - GA-8 (Jim Marshall), MS-1 (Travis Childers), NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter), NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring), OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring)

Republican (3) - CT-4 (Christopher Shays), MI-7 (Tim Walberg), OH-1 (Steve Chabot)

Tier IV

Democrat (33) - AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell), AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords), CT-2 (Joe Courtney), CT-5 (Chris Murphy), FL-22 (Ron Klein), GA-12 (John Barrow), IL-8 (Melissa Bean), IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring), IL-14 (Bill Foster), IN-2 (Joe Donnelly), IN-7 (Andre Carson), IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth), IN-9 (Baron Hill), KS-3 (Dennis Moore), KY-3 (John Yarmuth), ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring), MN-1 (Tim Walz), NH-2 (Paul Hodes), NY-19 (John Hall), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh retiring), NC-11 (Heath Shuler), OH-18 (Zack Space), PA-4 (Jason Altmire), PA-7 (Joe Sestak), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy, PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski), TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez), VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring), WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (43) - AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring), AL-3 (Mike Rogers), AZ-3 (John Shadegg), CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring), CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), FL-8 (Ric Keller), FL-9 (Michael Bilirakis), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan), FL-15 (Dave Weldon retiring), FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Tom Feeney), FL-25 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart), ID-1 (Bill Sali), IL-6 (Peter Roskam), IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring), IN-3 (Mark Souder), IA-4 (Tom Latham), KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring), MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring), MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg), MN-2 (John Kline), MN-6 (Michele Bachmann), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring), NE-2 (Lee Terry), NV-2 (Dean Heller), NV-3 (Jon Porter), NJ-5 (Scott Garrett), NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring), NC-12 (Patrick McHenry), OH-2 (Jean Schmidt), OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring), OH-14 (Steven LaTourette), PA-5 (John Peterson), PA-6 (Jim Gerlach), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), TX-7 (John Culberson), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), VA-2 (Thelma Drake), VA-5 (Virgil Goode), VA-10 (Frank Wolf), WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito), WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

It was a bad week for GOP nominee Tim Bee in AZ-8. His campaign chairman resigned and former GOP Congressman Jim Kolbe withdrew his support. President Bush did come out to raise funds for Bee, but that's a double edged sword with Bush's unpopularity. Rep. Giffords remains a solid favorite.

A Democratic poll released this week in Florida showed Lincoln Diaz-Balart with a narrow four point lead in FL-25. I don't really believe Diaz-Balart is in any trouble, but the Dems are running a credible race there so we will continue to watch it.

Tier V

Democrat (195)

Republican (137)

In other news from safe seat land, Dennis Kucinich in OH-10 reintroduced his quixotic motion to impeach President Bush. Luckily for Kucinich, he already won his primary and represents a hugely Democratic district. His constituents don't seem to mind his antics, either.

Current Outlook
Democrats 243 (pick up AK-AL, AZ-1, IL-11 NJ-7, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, VA-11)
Republicans 192 (pick up LA-6)