State of the Race

Forgive the late publishing of this column. Some family issues kept me from writing this weekend. State of the Race will now publish on Monday's. State of the Day will continue to publish weekdays. I will catch up and publish five states this week, though one may not come today (there will be makeup later this week). The Alan Keyes Award will also continue to publish on Sundays. A makeup Alan Keyes column will be posted by tomorrow. Thanks for your patience.

Battle lines continue to harden in the Senate and gubernatorial races. The House field slowly sorts itself. In the race for the White House, we start to see some signs of tightening.

See the previous State of the Race column for description of the BTP Tier System.

President

National polling has tended to give Obama a lead in the 4-7 point since he clinched the nomination. New polling this week indicates that the race is tightening somewhat. Newsweek had Obama leading the race by 3, down from 15 a few weeks ago. Quinnipiac had it at nine points, which looks like an outlier. CBS and the New York Times had Obama leading by six, while ABC News and the Washington Post had the lead down to three (from double digits last month). The ever unreliable Zogby showed a seven point lead. IBD/TIPP showed a three point lead. The important thing is that all of these polls show decreased leads from the previous polls by these pollsters.


No obvious reason stands out for this slight tightening. Perhaps Obama's move to the center isn't playing well. Maybe his unfavorability ratings (now equal to McCain's) are catching up with him. Perhaps it's statistical noise. We don't have enough yet to go on. Obama's ongoing international trip should get heavy press coverage and might press this race in one direction or another. More likely, we'll see the slight Obama lead continue until the conventions. Obama remains the favorite, but he should be up by more than he is.

We continue to only see state by state polling this week from an odd collection of mostly uncompetitive states. We'll use the national polls to slightly shift a few states toward McCain this week. Also, Obama does not have 270 Electoral Votes without including his Tier I states this week. That means if the election occurred today, Obama would still be the favorite, but McCain would have a chance of winning. In other words, I would not guarantee an Obama victory.

Tier I

Obama (34) - Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio

McCain (21) - Montana, Nevada, Virginia

The PPP poll in Colorado, funded by Democrats and consistently oversampling Democrats as we've documented here, showed Obama up 4. This is consistent with most polling in Colorado. To win the state, Obama would have to poll better in the Democratic friendly PPP poll. I still think he has a slight lead in Colorado. McCain needs Ohio and two of the three western states, so you can expect him to go all out in Colorado.

Rasmussen shows a two point Obama lead in Nevada. Most polling shows McCain with a slight lead. Nevada is a bit more Republican than the other two states out west. It's clearly a tossup as of now, but on the whole I think the evidence give a slight McCain edge.

Rasmussen had McCain up one in Virginia. This continues to be the closest state. The new poll puts it back in McCain's column for the week, but he will need to keep it there to win the election.

Tier II

Obama (67) - Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania

McCain (64) - Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina

A Strategic Vision (Republican firm) poll released yesterday, showed McCain down nine in New Jersey. That's a bit more than other polls have shown him at. New Jersey may actually be one of McCain's best chances in a Kerry state, but that says more about his hopelessness in those states than anything. I do note that the media goes nuts when Obama is shown to be down nine in Georgia.

Rasmussen has McCain down ten in Iowa. Obama continues to be the favorite to pick up the seven electoral votes there, although McCain will probably compete, so it stays in Tier II for now.

Rasmussen also shows Obama with an eight point lead in Michigan. That is a slightly larger lead than most recent polls. While McCain has somewhat of an opening here, Obama remains the favorite. It's hard to see how Obama wins without Michigan.

Rasmussen gives McCain a three point lead in North Carolina. SurveyUSA had his lead at five. This state is pretty consistently showing a modest McCain lead. It's a better bet for Obama than Georgia, however.

Research 2000 had Obama up five in Missouri. This is way out of line with every other poll, and Research 2000 hasn't had the best accuracy. I'm dismissing this one as an outlier until I see further evidence. Missouri remains close but favored to go to McCain.

Tier III

Obama (20) - Delaware, Oregon, Wisconsin

McCain (42) - Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota

Rasmussen shows a nine point lead for Obama in Oregon. That confirms a solid place in Tier III.

Rasmussen also shows McCain leading by four in South Dakota. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Indiana have all polled close this cycle. Obama is not playing in South Dakota at the moment, which indicates he thinks South Dakota is a mirage. McCain remains a heavy favorite.

Tier IV

Obama (175) - California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

McCain (118) - Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Rasmussen polled Arkansas. I have no idea why. It showed McCain up 13. Ho hum.

Rasmussen continued to waste money by showing that McCain is up 23 in Kansas. They could just give me money rather than do that.

They wasted even more time in Louisiana, finding McCain up 19.

SurveyUSA found Obama up 16 in Washington. That state has been close in the past, but it clearly isn't now. Obama consistently leads by double digits. Even a Republican poll this week showed McCain down 10.

Field did the weekly California poll this time, showing Obama up 24. Please, take your resources and poll Ohio. I beg you.

Siena handled the weekly New York poll. Obama is up 13. I really needed that information.

Rasmussen shows Obama up 17 in Minnesota. That's a high number, but he's been consistently showing a double digit lead there. Minnesota is safe for him.

Please pollsters!!! Out of 17 new polls this week, seven were in Tier IV states. Stop it already.

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
Obama 293 (pick up CO, IA, NM, OH)
McCain 245

Popular Vote
Obama 50.5%
McCain 49%

Governors

It remains a pretty dull year on the whole, but we may have a couple of barnburners.

Democrats lead 22-17 in states not up for election this year.

Tier I

Democrat (2) - North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring), Washington (Christine Gregoire)

A poll from the Dino Rossi campaign in Washington showed the race tied. I have a policy of discounting candidate polls, but I am shifting this race to Tier I this week. I think I simply erred in placing it lower. Gregoire beat Rossi by 129 votes in 2004, and Gregoire hasn't exactly hit the stratosphere with her approval ratings. Rossi will be well funded, and while he has some less than desirable ties, so does Rossi. I still feel Gregoire is the slight favorite, as most polls give her a tiny lead. It is basically a tossup at this point, so it hits Tier I.

Tier II

NONE

Tier III

NONE

Tier IV

Democrat (5) - Delaware (Ruth Minner retiring), Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring), Montana (Brian Schweitzer), New Hampshire (John Lynch), West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Republican (4) - Indiana (Mitch Daniels), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Utah (Jon Huntsman), Vermont (Jim Douglas)

In Missouri, a Research 2000 poll this week not only showed Democrat Jay Nixon over 50%, but he had double digit leads over both of his Republican rivals. Republicans still have to battle out the primary. Combined with the unpopularity of Republican Governor Matt Blunt, and the Republicans look done in Missouri before they even start. This race goes to the uncompetitive pile this week.

Current Outlook
Democrats 29 (pick up MO)
Republicans 21

Senate

The situation remains essentially the same this week. Democrats seem guaranteed to pick up three seats in the Senate, probably will get one more, and could get up to six. They dream of 10. Meanwhile, Republicans can only hope for one measly pickup.

Oregon moves up to Tier II this week, with the release of a poll showing the candidates tied. All other races remain in their previous places.

Democrats lead the seats not up for election 39-26

Tier I

Democrat (2) - Alaska (Ted Stevens), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker)

Tier II

Democrat (1) - Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Republican (1) - Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Tier III

Democrat (1) - Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring)

Republican (3) - Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Texas (John Cornyn)

In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer had their first debate on Monday. While spirited, nothing huge seemed to occur. The latest poll has Udall up nine, which fits in with all the other polls. Schaffer will have a tough time holding this seat for the GOP.

Tier IV

Democrat (14) - Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph Biden), Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), New Hampshire (John Sununu), New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (John Warner retiring), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (13) - Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Idaho (Larry Craig retiring), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Maine (Susan Collins), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oklahoma (James Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Wyoming (Michael Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

In the Georgia Democratic Primary, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led Jim Martin 40-34. They head to an August runoff. Neither candidate seems to have much of a chance against Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss.

The DSCC announced it will commit $5 million to Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan. Polls continue to show Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole with strong leads. Two polls this week (one an internal Dole poll) showed Dole up double digits. Hagan will have money, but she's going to have a hard time getting traction without a "macaca" style error by Dole.

Current Outlook
Democrats 57 (pick up AK, CO, MS (special), NH, NM, VA)
Republicans 43

House

Only two changes this week. North Carolina Democrat Heath Shuler heads to Tier V, while Pennsylvania Republican Phil English moves up to Tier IV.

Remember, at this point Tier IV represents sort of a pool of races the competitive races will come from. The races won't really take shape until September at the earliest.

Tier I

Democrat (5) - AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring), AK-AL (Don Young), KS-2 (Nancy Boyda), NJ-7 (Robert Ferguson retiring), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring)

Republican (6) - LA-6 (Don Cazayoux), MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring), NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring), NC-8 (Robin Hayes), OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring), WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Republicans got their preferred candidate in AL-5 when Wayne Parker beat Cheryl Guthrie in the runoff. He'll face Democratic State Senator Parker Griffith in the general election. This district is mostly Republican, but Griffith is running as an heir to popular conservative Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. He also did not have to have a runoff and has more money than Parker. This remains one of the closest races in the country.

In OH-16, Republican State Senator Kurt Schuring released a poll showing him leading Democratic State Senator John Boccieri. As an internal poll and one showing huge numbers of undecideds, the poll is essentially useless. This seat voted for George W. Bush, but also went solidly for Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown in 2006. I have assigned this race to the Republicans for now, but it is a tossup.

Tier II

Democrat (5) - AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney), FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), PA-10 (Christopher Carney), TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

Republican (6) - CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring), NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl)

In IL-10, Republican Rep. Mark Kirk released a poll showing him leading Democrat Dan Seals by 21 points. I disregard this poll not only becomes from Kirk, but it had a small sample and was conducted on one day (most good polls occur over multiple days). I think Kirk is slightly ahead, but he barely beat Seals in 2006 and he is not leading by 21 points.

Tier III

Democrat (5) - GA-8 (Jim Marshall), MS-1 (Travis Childers), NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter), NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring), OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring)

Republican (3) - CT-4 (Christopher Shays), MI-7 (Tim Walberg), OH-1 (Steve Chabot)

Republican Rep. Steve Chabot released a poll showing him leading 50-37 in OH-1, while also showing Barack Obama winning the district by 7. Obama could impact this race, as the district has a significant black population. Chabot has an edge, but not that much of one. The 52-48 margin he won by in 2006 seems about right.

Tier IV

Democrat (32) - AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell), AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords), CT-2 (Joe Courtney), CT-5 (Chris Murphy), FL-22 (Ron Klein), GA-12 (John Barrow), IL-8 (Melissa Bean), IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring), IL-14 (Bill Foster), IN-2 (Joe Donnelly), IN-7 (Andre Carson), IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth), IN-9 (Baron Hill), KS-3 (Dennis Moore), KY-3 (John Yarmuth), ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring), MN-1 (Tim Walz), NH-2 (Paul Hodes), NY-19 (John Hall), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh retiring), OH-18 (Zack Space), PA-4 (Jason Altmire), PA-7 (Joe Sestak), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy, PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski), TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez), VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring), WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (44) - AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring), AL-3 (Mike Rogers), AZ-3 (John Shadegg), CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring), CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), FL-8 (Ric Keller), FL-9 (Michael Bilirakis), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan), FL-15 (Dave Weldon retiring), FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Tom Feeney), FL-25 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart), ID-1 (Bill Sali), IL-6 (Peter Roskam), IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring), IN-3 (Mark Souder), IA-4 (Tom Latham), KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring), MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring), MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg), MN-2 (John Kline), MN-6 (Michele Bachmann), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring), NE-2 (Lee Terry), NV-2 (Dean Heller), NV-3 (Jon Porter), NJ-5 (Scott Garrett), NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring), NC-12 (Patrick McHenry), OH-2 (Jean Schmidt), OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring), OH-14 (Steven LaTourette), PA-3 (Phil English), PA-5 (John Peterson), PA-6 (Jim Gerlach), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), TX-7 (John Culberson), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), VA-2 (Thelma Drake), VA-5 (Virgil Goode), VA-10 (Frank Wolf), WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito), WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

In AL-2, Republican State Rep. Jay Love narrowly won the primary runoff against State Senator Harri Smith. Self-funding Love now faces a much stronger than expected challenge from Democratic Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright. Love remains favored over Bright due to the extreme Republican nature of the seat. Yet, Democrats have success in this cycle in two Republican Southern districts, and this race does look competitive. It stays in Tier IV for now, but may be moving up soon.

In FL-13, Republican Vern Buchanan released strong fundraising numbers. He's raised over $3 million and has over $1.5 million on hand. Democrat Christine Jennings has far less money, though the DCCC looks to invest heavily here. The district favors Republicans, though Buchanan edged Jennings in a controversial election in 2006. With incumbency and the possiblity of McCain helping here, Buchanan remains the favorite. However, the sheer margin from 2006 ensures this reace will be competitive.

Democratic Rep. John Barrow dispatched a liberal primary challenge from Regina Thomas in GA-12. Despite his very narrow victory in 2006, he's well positioned against Republican John Stone.

PA-3 makes Tier IV this week thanks to a poll on behalf of Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, showing her leading Republican Rep. Phil English 41-40. The poll overrepresents Democrats, so it's no wonder that it shows Dahlkemper ahead (but way behind the generic Democrat). English is still ahead, but any poll showing the other candidate ahead, no matter how biased or flawed, is going to make the race get to Tier IV.

In the open VA-11 seat, Fairfax County Board Chairman Gerry Connolly released a poll showing him with a huge lead, 52-21, over Republican Keith Fimian. Fimian has more money than Connolly (for now), but very few people familiar with the race think he can win in this area which is trending rapidly Democratic. This looks like a Democratic pickup.

Tier V

Democrat (196)

Republican (136)

Republican Rep. Paul Broun easily survived a strong challenge in GA-10, knocking off State Rep. Barry Fleming with 71% of the vote. He will have no problems with Democrat Bobby Saxton.

In TN-7, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn has a serious challenger on her hand in the August primary. Opponent Tom Leatherwood release a poll showing him trailing Blackburn 48-37. The usual caveats for internal polls apply, but Blackburn is under 50% and that's not impressive. She remains the favorite but will have to work to win the nomination. Either Republican will win easily in November.

Current Outlook
Democrats 243 (pick up AK-AL, AZ-1, IL-11 NJ-7, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, VA-11)
Republicans 192 (pick up LA-6)