State of the Day - Texas

The Lone Star State has always tended toward one party politics. Until the late 1970’s, Democrats dominated state politics here. That situation has completely reversed. Democrats have not elected a statewide official since 1994. They haven’t even come close to doing so since 1998. Already controlling the State Senate, the GOP finally took back the State House in 2002. This enabled them to pass a redistricting plan ensuring Republican control of the House delegation.

The 2006 Governor’s race revealed the basic breakdown of state politics. Governor Rick Perry’s 39% represents the basic Republican base, mostly social conservatives. Chris Bell’s 30% is the base Democratic vote. Carole Keeton Strayhorn’s 18% is mostly moderate and economically oriented voters that generally vote Republican, but can be swayed by non-Republicans. Kinky Friedman’s 12% represents disgruntled voters, nonvoters, apathetics, young people, and generally people with unpredictable voting patters. To win, Democrats must appeal to Strayhorn voters. Yet, they never do, choosing instead to go with more classically liberal candidates. It never, ever works for them.

This should be a status quo election year in Texas, though the GOP should reclaim the House seat they sacrificed to Tom DeLay’s ego two years ago. The 2010 gubernatorial race is the big story of the moment. Republicans have avoided primary battles in recent years, but they may have one this time. Meanwhile, Democrats may produce a candidate that can actually win.


President – 34 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 49%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 44%
2000: George Bush (R) 59%, Al Gore (D) 38%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 61%, John Kerry (D) 38%

John McCain won’t do as well as native son George W. Bush did here. However, it would take a landslide of historic proportions for Barack Obama to win Texas. The reduced margin will hurt McCain’s standing in the popular vote, but it won’t affect the ultimate outcome.

Prediction: McCain (R) 55%, Obama (D) 45%

Governor – Rick Perry (R)

1998: Gov. George Bush (R) 68%, Garry Mauro (D) 31%
2002: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 58%, Tony Sanchez (D) 40%
2006: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 39%, Chris Bell (D) 30%

Governor Perry may face primary opposition. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has long expressed interest in the Governor’s Mansion (figuratively speaking, as the mansion itself recently was torched by an unknown culprit). Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst may run as well. Despite low approval ratings and significant weaknesses, Perry would be favored in the primary. Hutchison may be the best bet in a general election, but many conservatives don’t trust her pro-choice views and she hasn’t developed the best connection with the party’s base. Dewhurst has unlimited personal funds, but he is not beloved in the party.

Democrats should hope to nominate Houston Mayor Bill White. He can project a moderate image and has significant accomplishments as Houston mayor, especially on environmental policy. White could get significant business support and do well in Metro Houston, two bulwarks of GOP domination of Texas. If he doesn’t run, Democrats will probably be left with a token like Chris Bell again. Kinky Friedman has expressed interest in running as a Democrat, which would make the party more of a joke than it already is.

Perry remains a favorite, but White has a serious opening should he run.

Senior Senator – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)

1994: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 61%, Richard Fisher (D) 38%
2000: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 65%, Eugene Kelly (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 62%, Barbara Radnofsky (D) 36%

Senator Hutchison has already announced she will not run again, and in fact may resign in order to run for Governor. If she serves out her term, the leading Republican would seem to be Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, who may get this as a consolation prize for being squeezed out of the 2010 gubernatorial race. Other potential candidates include Henry Bonilla, Representatives Kevin Brady, John Carter, Mike Conaway, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Kay Granger, Jeb Hensarling, Kenny Marchant, Randy Neugebauer, Ted Poe, and Mac Thornberry, and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert.

Houston Mayor Bill White would be the best Democratic nominee, if he doesn’t run for Governor in 2010. Representative Chet Edwards would also be a great candidate. Anybody else would almost certainly lose. Potential sacrificial lambs include Chris Bell, Ken Bentsen, Lee Brown, Representatives Henry Cuellar, Lloyd Doggett, Charles Gonzalez, Al Green, Gene Green, Ruben Hinojosa Nick Lampson, Solomon Ortiz, Silvestre Reyes, and Ciro Rodriguez, Martin Frost, Ron Kirk, Barbara Radnofsky, Max Sandlin, Charles Stenholm, Jim Turner, and State Senator Kirk Watson.

On the whole, Republicans are heavy favorites to win this seat.

Junior Senator – John Cornyn (R)

1990: Sen. Phil Gramm (R) 60%, Hugh Parmer (D) 37%
1996: Sen. Phil Gramm (R) 55%, Victor M. Morales (D) 44%
2002: John Cornyn (R) 55%, Ron Kirk (D) 43%

Senator Cornyn (or “Big Bad John” as he likes to be called) has some weaknesses. He has low approval ratings and seems determined to antagonize Hispanic voters with his hard line immigration stances. Democratic State Representative Rick Noriega has two problems that will keep him from winning. First, is he is way too liberal for this state. Secondly, he does not have near enough money for this state. His name recognition was a problem in the primary, when he barely avoided a runoff with perennial candidate Eugene Kelly.

Cornyn will win this time, but watch out for 2014 as the Hispanic proportion of voters continues to grow.

Prediction: Sen. Cornyn (R) 56%, Noriega (D) 44%

House 1 – Louie Gohmert (R)

2002: Rep. Max Sandlin (D) 56%, John Lawrence (R) 44%
2004: Louie Gohmert (R) 61%, Rep. Max Sandlin (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Louie Gohmert (R) 68%, Roger Owen (D) 30%

This seat became totally inhospitable to Democrats after the DeLay redistricting, and Gohmert is unopposed.

House 2 – Ted Poe (R)

2002: Rep. Jim Turner (D) 61%, Van Brookshire (R) 38%
2004: Ted Poe (R) 56%, Rep. Nick Lampson (D) 43%
2006: Rep. Ted Poe (R) 66%, Gary Binderim (D) 33%

See House 1, and substitute “Poe” for “Gohmert”

House 3 – Sam Johnson (R)

2002: Rep. Sam Johnson (R) 74%, Manny Molera (D) 24%
2004: Rep. Sam Johnson (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Sam Johnson (R) 63%, Dan Dodd (D) 35%

This district didn’t need DeLay to be safely Republican. Johnson will win another term against the outgunned Tom Daley.

House 4 – Ralph Hall (R)

2002: Rep. Ralph Hall (D) 58%, John Graves (R) 40%
2004: Rep. Ralph Hall (R) 68%, Jim Nickerson (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Ralph Hall (R) 64%, Glenn Melancon (D) 33%

The 85 year old former Democrat Hall always seems ready to retire, but he never does. Democrat Glenn Melancon will lose badly, as would any Democrat here.

House 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R)

2002: Jeb Hensarling (R) 58%, Ron Chapman (D) 40%
2004: Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R) 64%, Bill Bernstein (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R) 62%, Charlie Thompson (D) 36%

Hensarling is unopposed in yet another overwhelmingly Republican district.

House 6 – Joe Barton (R)

2002: Rep. Joe Barton (R) 70%, Felix Alvarado (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Joe Barton (R) 66%, Morris Meyer (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Joe Barton (R) 60%, David Harris (D) 37%

Jesus Christ could not win as a Democrat here. Democrat Ludwing Otto won’t either.

House 7 – John Culberson (R)

2002: Rep. John Culberson (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. John Culberson (R) 64%, John Martinez (D) 33%
2006: Rep. John Culberson (R) 59%, Jim Henley (D) 38%

Culberson actually has real competition this year from wealthy Democrat Michael Skelly, who has outraised Culberson even aside from his self-financing. Culberson doesn’t stand up to the spotlight too well. He has a penchant for stupid comments, recently trashing NASA and promoting arming the anti-immigrant Minuteman group. He has become an obstacle to any sort of public transportation in Houston. He seems to have almost no fundraising capacity, which is embarrassing considering he is on the Appropriations Committee.

Skelly is almost certainly a better candidate than Culberson, which is not a high bar. However, Culberson should win easily. This West Houston seat isn’t as Republican as it used to be, and is gaining quite a few minorities, but it is still simply too Republican for a Democrat to win. Check back in ten years.

House 8 – Kevin Brady (R)

2002: Rep. Kevin Brady (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Kevin Brady (R) 69%, Jim Wright (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Kevin Brady (R) 67%, Jim Wright (D) 33%

This is a seriously Republican seat even by Texas standards. Democrat Kent Hargett has raised $525. I didn’t bother to look up the identity of the person(s) who wasted their money.

House 9 – Al Green (D)

2002: Rep. Nick Lampson (D) 59%, Paul Williams (R) 40%
2004: Al Green (D) 72%, Arlette Molina (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Al Green (D) unopposed

This is one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. Green is unopposed.

House 10 – Michael McCaul (R)

2002: Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) unopposed
2004: Michael McCaul (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Michael McCaul (R) 55%, Ted Ankrum (D) 40%

This overwhelmingly Republican district, which stretches from Austin to Houston, shouldn’t give Democrats a chance. Yet, the Democrats are high on their nominee, TV judge Larry Joe Doherty. Doherty has nearly matched McCaul in fundraising.

McCaul’s problem is that nobody seems to like him all that much. Doherty, on the other hand, is quite personable and shies away from doctrinaire liberal positions. Like Skelly in the Seventh District, he’s whip McCaul in a neutral setting. This district, however, is just too Republican. McCaul should contribute to Tom DeLay’s legal defense fund after he wins.

House 11 – Mike Conaway (R)

2002: Rep. Chet Edwards (D) 52%, Ramsey Farley (R) 47%
2004: Mike Conaway (R) 77%, Wayne Raasch (D) 22%
2006: Rep. Mike Conaway (R) unopposed

Conaway is unopposed in the most Republican district in the nation (78% for George W. Bush in 2004).

House 12 – Kay Granger (R)

2002: Rep. Kay Granger (R) 92%, Edward Hanson (D) 8%
2004: Rep. Kay Granger (R) 72%, Felix Alvarado (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Kay Granger (R) 67%, John Morris (D) 31%

Texans don’t like uncertainty in House races (at least Tom DeLay doesn’t). Here’s another that will always stay Republican no matter what. Democrat Tracey Smith is dead meat.

House 13 – Mac Thornberry (R)

2002: Rep. Mac Thornberry (R) 79%, Zack Reese (D) 21%
2004: Rep. Mac Thornberry (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mac Thornberry (R) 74%, Roger Waun (D) 23%

It’s hard to believe there are actually more Republican districts in Texas than this. Democrat Roger Waun won’t do any better than he did last time.

House 14 – Ron Paul (R)

2002: Rep. Ron Paul (R) 68%, Corby Windham (D) 32%
2004: Rep. Ron Paul (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Ron Paul (R) 60%, Shane Sklar (D) 40%

The GOP would love to replace Paul with a real Republican, but Paul’s fundraising prowess makes that virtually impossible. No Democrat will ever win this seat, and none is trying this year.

House 15 – Ruben Hinojosa (D)

2002: Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (D) 58%, Michael Thamm (R) 41%
2006: Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (D) 62%, Paul Haring (R) 24%

This is an honest to goodness swing district. 78% of the population is Hispanic, but they will vote for Republicans in some circumstances (Bush carried this district in 2004). Republican Eddie Zamora is not the right circumstance.

House 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D)

2002: Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) 68%, David Brigham (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) unopposed

Reyes is unopposed in this mostly, but not totally Democratic district.

House 17 – Chet Edwards (D)

2002: Rep. Charlie Stenholm (D) 51%, Rob Beckham (R) 47%
2004: Rep. Chet Edwards (D) 51%, Arlene Wohlgemuth (R) 47%
2006: Rep. Chet Edwards (D) 58%, Van Taylor (R) 40%

Democrats have no business holding this seat, which voted 70% for George W. Bush in 2004. The talented Edwards continues to succeed, however, even when Tom DeLay redraws his seat out from under him. Edwards would make a fantastic statewide candidate for Democrats. In the meantime, Republicans seem to have given up. I know Edwards is tough, but I can’t believe Republicans can’t do better in this district than the pathetic Rob Curnock.

House 18 – Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

2002: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) 77%, Phillip Abbott (D) 22%
2004: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) 77%, Ahmad Hassan (R) 19%

There are more ex-Jackson Lee staffers than Republicans in this district. Queen Sheila (her term, not mine) is safe against Republican John Faulk.

House 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R)

2002: Rep. Larry Combest (R) unopposed
2003 special: Randy Neugebauer (R) 22%, Kaye Gaddy (D) 2%*
2004: Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R) 58%, Rep. Charlie Stenholm (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R) 68%, Robert Ricketts (D) 30%

* This was an all-party primary. In the runoff, Neugebauer beat fellow Republican Mike Conaway 51-49.

This is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. Democrat Dwight Fullingim will get more misspellings of his name than votes.

House 20 – Charles Gonzalez (D)

2002: Rep. Charles Gonzalez (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Charles Gonzalez (D) 65%, Roger Scott (R)
2006: Rep. Charles Gonzalez (D) unopposed

Gonzalez will crush Republican Robert Litoff in this mostly Democratic seat. His newest ex-wife has not indicated any intent to run against him as his previous ex-wife did.

House 21 – Lamar Smith (R)

2002: Rep. Lamar Smith (R) 73%, John Courage (D) 25%
2004: Rep. Lamar Smith (R) 61%, Rhett Smith (R) 36%
2006: Rep. Lamar Smith (R) 60%, John Courage (D) 25%

This is another district Democrats can forget about. Smith is unopposed.

House 22 – Nick Lampson (D)

2002: Rep. Tom DeLay (R) 63%, Tim Riley (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Tom DeLay (R) 55%, Richard Morrison (D) 41%
2006 special: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) unopposed
2006: Nick Lampson (D) 52%, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 42%

Lampson would probably not have won this suburban Houston seat had Shelley Sekula-Gibbs been on the ballot in 2006. This is a heavily Republican seat and had Tom DeLay withdrawn before the primary, it would be represented by a Republican. In the meantime, Lampson has done everything right. He’s defended NASA, piled up a moderate to conservative record, and raised a ton of money.

Republicans got their preferred candidate when Pete Olson beat Sekula-Gibbs in the primary. Olson got off to a rocky start by pasting his face on a fitter body on a mailer, but has raised almost enough money to match Lampson. It won’t be easy for Olson, but this district is just too Republican for Lampson to hang on to.

House 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D)

2002: Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) 52%, Henry Cuellar (D) 47%
2004: Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) 69%, Joe Sullivan (D) 29%
2006: Ciro Rodriguez (D) 54%, Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) 46%

Rodriguez also won in fluke circumstances in 2006. After losing a primary challenge to Henry Cuellar in the 28th District, the Supreme Court threw out the district lines and ordered all party primaries in the affected districts. Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla barely missed winning outright in November, and Rodriguez surged past the demoralized Republicans in the December runoff.

This vast West Texas seat stretches from San Antonio to El Paso and includes Del Rio. It actually leans Republican even though it is a majority Hispanic seat. Republicans nominated Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who has the wrong sort of surname for this district. Rodriguez had demonstrated strong fundraising for the first time in his career, and unlike Nick Lampson, should hold this seat.

House 24 – Kenny Marchant (R)

2002: Rep. Martin Frost (D) 65%, Martin Ortega (R) 34%
2004: Kenny Marchant (R) 64%, Gary Page (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Kenny Marchant (D) 60%, Gary Page (D) 37%

Democrats will never win here as long as Republicans are on the ballot. Democrat Tom Love is the political equivalent of a swimmer from Equatorial Guinea.

House 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D)

2002: Chris Bell (D) 55%, Tom Reiser (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) 68%, Rebecca Armendariz Klein (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) 67%, Grant Rostig (R) 26%

This is a swing district by national standards, which makes it prime Democratic territory in Texas. Doggett is entrenched and faces no challenge from Republican George Morovich.

House 26 – Michael Burgess (R)

2002: Michael Burgess (R) 75%, Paul LeBon (D) 23%
2004: Rep. Michael Burgess (R) 66%, Lico Reyes (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Michael Burgess (R) 60%, Tim Barnwell (D) 37%

I’m out of ways to say that a district is overwhelmingly Republican. Suffice it to say that Burgess is safe again token Democrat Ken Leach.

House 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D)

2002: Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D) 61%, Pat Ahumada (R) 37%
2004: Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D) 63%, Willie Vaden (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D) 57%, Willie Vaden (R) 39%

Republicans really ought to find someone better than Willie Vaden in what should be a swing district. Ortiz is keeping this seat warm for his son, State Rep. Solomon Ortiz Jr., who is currently one of the biggest party animals in the Texas Legislature (which is actually saying something).

House 28 – Henry Cuellar (D)

2002: Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) 71%, Gabriel Perales (R) 27%
2004: Henry Cuellar (D) 59%, Jim Hopson (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) unopposed*

* Cuellar had no Republican opposition in the all party primary after the Supreme Court redrew the district lines. Cuellar won 68% to fellow Democrat Frank Enriquez’s 20%

Cuellar has a moderate record and is tough. Nevertheless, Republicans should be able to do better than ninth tier candidate Jim Fish in a swing district that George W. Bush carried twice.

House 29 – Gene Green (D)

2002: Rep. Gene Green (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Gene Green (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Gene Green (D) 74%, Eric Story (R) 24%

This is a majority Hispanic district and was designed to elect a Hispanic, but the Anglo Green has carved out a comfortable place for himself. It would take pretty much everything going right for Republicans to take this seat. It won’t happen for Eric Story this year.

House 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

2002: Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) 74%, Ron Bush (R) 24%
2004: Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) 80%, Wilson Auerbach (R) 18%

This is a Republican free zone. GOP nominee Fred Wood will put up some ugly results.

House 31 – John Carter (R)

2002: John Carter (R) 69%, David Bagley (D) 27%
2004: Rep. John Carter (R) 65%, Jon Porter (D) 32%
2006: Rep. John Carter (R) 58%, Mary Beth Harrell (D) 39%

Carter is nothing special, but Democrats will never win this seat, and Democratic nominee Brian Ruiz doesn’t have near enough money.

House 32 – Pete Sessions (R)

2002: Rep. Pete Sessions (R) 68%, Pauline Dixon (D) 30%
2004: Rep. Pete Sessions (R) 54%, Rep. Martin Frost (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Pete Sessions (R) 56%, Will Pryor (D) 41%

This seat just doesn’t provide any opening for Democrat Eric Roberson.

House Predictions: 20 Republicans, 12 Democrats…+1 REPUBLICANS