State of the Race

I'm still on vacation, so this article does not have much commentary. But, I've still updated the tiers so you can get a better grasp of the race. The commentary will return next week. I am planning on writing two State of the Day columns each day this week to make up for last week. We will also be analyzing each convention from 1972 to 2004 this week, continuing our series on conventions. The conclusion will be a week from Monday. Of course, we will also have thoughts and analysis of the Democratic National Convention. This will be a busy week here at BTP, so keep reading.

John McCain continued his upward movement this week, and is now in a tie with Barack Obama. When I say tie, I mean a tie. I have McCain leading the popular vote by eight one hundreths of a point. The election hinges on Colorado, which I literally have 50-50. If it wasn't my policy in this column to pick a leader in every race, I'd call it a true toss up. I keep Colorado with Obama this week since he had been leading, but that is completely an arbitrary call. It, and the election, are way too close to call if the election were held today.

You may ask how the selection of Joe Biden affects this column. In short, it does not. For one, no poll could measure the effect on the race in the short amount of time since the pick. Secondly, historically Vice Presidential selections have had no bearing whatsoever on the standings of the presidential candidates. I see no reason Biden will be an exception to that rule. I expect that Biden may push Delaware from Tier III to Tier IV in time, but aside from that I don't expect him to change many votes. It is important not to overthink VP selections.

Remember, this column assesses the race as it would be if the election were today. Thus, as the conventions take place you can expect this column to swerve back and forth if polls show any "bounce". I suspect by the time of the first debate, however, it will have come back right to where it is today.

The other races are less interesting. If the election were held today, I could lock in Democratic gains of one governor and five Senators. Democrats would pick up between 1 and 14 seats in the House, with the most likely pickup being six seats.

Now, to the State of the Race...


President

Tier I

Obama (35) - Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire

McCain (48) - Nevada, Ohio, Virginia

Tier II

Obama (48) - Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

McCain (45) - Florida, Montana, North Carolina

Tier III

Obama (25) - Delaware, New Jersey, Oregon

McCain (33) - Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia

Tier IV

Obama (165) - California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

McCain (149) - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
Obama 273 (pick up CO, IA, NM)
McCain 265

Popular Vote
McCain 49.8%
Obama 49.7%

Governors

Democrats lead 22-17 in states not up for election this year.

Tier I

NONE

Tier II

Democrat (1) - North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring)

Tier III

Democrat (1) - Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Tier IV

Democrat (5) - Delaware (Ruth Ann Minner retiring), Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring), Montana (Brian Schweitzer), New Hampshire (John Lynch), West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Republican (4) - Indiana (Mitch Daniels), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Utah (Jon Huntsman), Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Current Outlook
Democrats 29 (pick up MO)
Republicans 21

Senate

Democrats lead uncontested seats 39-26.

Tier I

NONE

Tier II

Democrat (1) - Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring)

Republican (4) - Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Tier III

Democrat (3) - Alaska (Ted Stevens), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), New Hampshire (John Sununu)

Republican (1) - Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

Tier IV

Democrat (13) - Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph Biden), Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (John Warner retiring), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (13) - Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Idaho (Larry Craig retiring), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring), Oklahoma (James Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Michael Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

Current Outlook
Democrats 56 (pick up AK, CO, NH, NM, VA)
Republicans 44

House

Tier I

Democrat (5) - AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring), KS-2 (Nancy Boyda), NV-3 (Jon Porter), NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring)

Republican (8) - AK-AL (Don Young), LA-6 (Don Cazayoux), MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring), NJ-7 (Robert Ferguson retiring), NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring), NC-8 (Robin Hayes), OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring), WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II

Democrat (4) - FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter), PA-10 (Christopher Carney), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)

Republican (5) - CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave), CT-2 (Christopher Shays), LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

Tier III

Democrat (6) - AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney), GA-8 (Jim Marshall), IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring), MS-1 (Travis Childers), WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (7) - AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring), FL-24 (Tom Feeney), IL-10 (Mark Kirk) MI-7 (Tim Walberg), NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring) OH-1 (Steve Chabot)

Tier IV

Democrat (28) - AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell), AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords), CT-2 (Joe Courtney), CT-5 (Chris Murphy), FL-22 (Ron Klein), GA-12 (John Barrow), IL-8 (Melissa Bean), IL-14 (Bill Foster), IN-2 (Joe Donnelly), IN-7 (Andre Carson), IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth), IN-9 (Baron Hill), KS-3 (Dennis Moore), KY-3 (John Yarmuth), ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring), MN-1 (Tim Walz), NH-2 (Paul Hodes), NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring), NY-19 (John Hall), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh retiring), OH-18 (Zack Space), OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring), PA-4 (Jason Altmire), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy), TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez), VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring)

Republican (44) - AL-3 (Mike Rogers), AZ-3 (John Shadegg), CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring), CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), FL-8 (Ric Keller), FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan), FL-15 (Dave Weldon retiring), FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen), FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart), FL-25 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart), ID-1 (Bill Sali), IL-6 (Peter Roskam), IL-13 (Judy Biggert), IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring), IN-3 (Mark Souder), IA-4 (Tom Latham), KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring), LA-7 (Charles Boustany), MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring), MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg), MN-2 (John Kline), MN-6 (Michele Bachmann), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring), NE-2 (Lee Terry), NV-2 (Dean Heller) NJ-5 (Scott Garrett), NC-12 (Patrick McHenry), OH-2 (Jean Schmidt), OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring), OH-14 (Steven LaTourette), PA-3 (Phil English), PA-6 (Jim Gerlach), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), TX-7 (John Culberson), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), VA-2 (Thelma Drake), VA-5 (Virgil Goode), VA-10 (Frank Wolf), WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito), WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

Tier V

Democrat (199)

Republican (129)

Current Outlook
Democrats 242 (pick up AZ-1, IL-11, NV-3, NJ-3, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, VA-11)
Republicans 193 (pick up LA-6, TX-22)