State of the Day - Arkansas

On a national level, it might seem like the Razorback State is a Republican state. It’s a Southern state, and those go Republican. It voted for George W. Bush twice, and going back to 1980, it has only voted Democrat for native son Bill Clinton.

Yet, Arkansas is on measure quite a Democratic state. Democrats continue to dominate state offices and the state legislature. It threw out Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson in 2002 and replace Governor Mike Huckabee with a Democrat in 2006. It now has two Democratic Senators and three of four Democratic Congressmen, all of whom seem in impregnable position. The state Republican Party lies in shambles, losing badly for Senator in 2004, Governor in 2006, and not even managing to field a candidate for Senator in 2008. This is a Democratic state, though one that will not vote for Presidential candidates it perceives as members of a liberal elite. Neither fact will change in 2008.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 54%, Bob Dole (R) 37%
2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%

Arkansas may vote Democrat, but it generally doesn’t like the party’s presidential candidates. Going back to 1984, with the exception of Bill Clinton, the party has managed to nominate either liberal Washington insiders or east coast types that don’t “fit” Arkansas. Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry don’t fit the conservative, “good ‘ol boy (or gal)” image Arkansas Democrats have used to great success. This gave Republicans an opening to win here, especially as George W. Bush’s profile fit the state quite well.

John McCain doesn’t have Bush’s touch in this regard, so an opening existed for the Democrats. In fact, polls showed Hillary Clinton, the state’s former first lady, clobbering McCain here. Barack Obama, meanwhile, polled and continues to poll far behind. No state, perhaps, gave Hillary Clinton a larger relative advantage over Obama. There’s no evidence Obama can or will compete here. Unlike Virginia, which also voted for Bush by nine points in 2004, you can forget this one.

Prediction: McCain (R) 56%, Obama (D) 43%

Governor – Mike Beebe (D)

1998: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 60%, Bill Bristow (D) 39%
2002: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 53%, Jimmie Fisher (D) 47%
2006: Mike Beebe (D) 56%, Asa Hutchinson (R) 41%

Governor Beebe is off to a good start, with a cooperative Democratic legislature, a $900 million budget surplus, and sky high approval ratings. Republicans, meanwhile, have no bench of potential candidates to choose from. Asa Hutchinson might have been the best candidate they could have come up, and he lost to Beebe badly. At this point, Beebe looks like nothing but a huge favorite to win re-election in 2010. He should use the unneeded campaign money to obtain a better fitting toupee.

Senior Senator – Blanche Lincoln (D)

1992: Sen. Dale Bumpers (D) 60%, Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
1998: Blanche Lincoln (D) 55%, Fay Boozman (R) 42%
2004: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 56%, Jim Holt (R) 44%

Lincoln has become an impressive figure and Republicans seemed to give up on this race in 2004. Her profile, as a moderate/conservative Democrat and mother, works very well here. The only candidate who might possibly have a chance to beat her in 2010 would be the state’s former Governor, Mike Huckabee, fresh off a more successful than expected Presidential campaign. This seems unlikely to me, however. Assuming Huckabee does not run, I cannot find a candidate with a real chance to defeat Lincoln in 2010.

Junior Senator – Mark Pryor (D)

1990: Sen. David Pryor (D) unopposed
1996: Tim Hutchinson (R) 53%, Winston Bryant (D) 47%
2002: Mark Pryor (D) 54%, Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%

Republicans hoped Mike Huckabee would challenge Senator Pryor. He declined, at which point the Republicans seemed to go into a coma. In the end, they did not bother to field a candidate and Pryor will win a second term unopposed. Pryor has a moderate record and would probably win anyway, but not running anybody is embarrassing. It’s not like this is a New York City congressional district where the best Republican couldn’t get 20%. Arkansas has a decent conservative base, and Pryor beat a badly flawed candidate in 2002. The fact that they couldn’t get a single person to run illustrates why Republicans do so badly in a state in which they have serious potential.

Prediction – Sen. Pryor (D) 99%

House 1 – Marion Berry (D)

2002: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 67%, Tommy Robinson (R) 33%
2004: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 67%, Vernon Humphrey (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 69%, Mickey Stumbaugh (R) 31%

Berry has launched a remarkable comeback in Northeast Arkansas since being convicted for using crack as Mayor of Washington, DC. What’s that, you say? You’re telling me that was Marion Barry, not Marion Berry?

I’m sure Berry has heard the joke before, but there isn’t much else to say, as Republicans have failed to field a candidate in what should by all accounts be a swing district. That seems to be a common theme.

House 2 – Vic Snyder (D)

2002: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 58%, Marvin Parks (R) 42%
2006: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 61%, Andy Mayberry (R) 39%

Would somebody please wake up the Arkansas Republican Party and let them know it’s an election year? This district votes right at the national average, and Snyder has raised barely $130,000. Apparently that scared state Republicans off, as they did not field a candidate.

House 3 – John Boozman (R)

2002: Rep. John Boozman (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. John Boozman (R) 59%, Janice Judy (D) 38%
2006: Rep. John Boozman (R) 62%, Woodrow Anderson (D) 38%

This time, it is the Democrats’ turn to let the Republican run unopposed. Apparently, they didn’t want to alert the Republicans to the upcoming election. At least they have an excuse. This Northwest Arkansas district is solidly Republican, as they could not win it even with Bill Clinton in the heavily Democratic year of 1974.

House 4 – Mike Ross (D)

2002: Rep. Mike Ross (D) 61%, Jay Dickey (R) 39%
2004: Rep. Mike Ross (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mike Ross (D) 75%, Joe Ross (R) 25%

You’ve probably guessed it, but Mike Ross is running unopposed. For the record, this is a perfectly evenly balanced district. Arkansas Republicans are in a neck and neck contest with their New York brethren for most incompetent state party of the year.

House Predictions – 3 Democrats, 1 Republican…NO CHANGE