State of the Day - Florida

Many Americans think of the Sunshine State as the ultimate swing state based on the “recount” of 2000. In truth, Florida leans a bit Republican. Al Gore ran ahead of most Democrats here in 2000, when the state ran about half a point more Republican than the nation as a whole. Bush won by 5 in 2004, about two points better than the national average. On a state level, Florida has elected a Republican Senator in 2004 and three straight times has voted a Republican for Governor. Democrats had some success here in House races in 2004, partly benefiting from odious Republicans Katherine Harris and Mark Foley, but did not see a sweep here like in some other states.

Barack Obama would love to win Florida in 2008. With money to spare he will go for it, especially since winning here would seal the White House. Yet, he polled awfully in Florida for most of the year. While recent polls have shown a closer race, Florida still appears to be a few points to the right of the nation. Democrats seek to induce a tidal wave of support here as they have in the Upper Midwest and gain ten points of support. It has not happened yet, however.


President – 27 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 48%, Bob Dole (R) 42%
2000: George Bush (R) 49%, Al Gore (D) 49%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 52%, John Kerry (D) 47%

During Democratic primary season, multiple polls showed Barack Obama trailing badly here, while Hillary Clinton had sizable leads. Now that Obama is the nominee, he has done better in polls. He still runs no better than even, however, and usually runs between 2-5 points behind. This is good news for John McCain, who simply cannot win the White House without Florida.

It’s hard to see Obama winning here without at least a 3 point lead nationally. Perhaps a sustained effort will help him make this state relatively more Democratic, but I doubt it. To do so, he has two tactical imperatives. First, he must do well among Hispanics. It will be interesting to see how is advocacy of negotiations with Raul Castro will play. Secondly, he cannot lose votes from the Jewish voters who make up a large part of the Democratic base in Florida.

In the end, I expect a close race, but I would be surprised if Obama won Florida.

Prediction: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 48%

Governor – Charlie Crist (R)

1998: Jeb Bush (R) 55%, Buddy MacKay (D) 45%
2002: Gov. Jeb Bush (R) 56%, Bill McBride (D) 43%
2006: Charlie Crist (R) 52%, Jim Davis (D) 45%

Governor Crist remains decently popular though he has lost some steam, with a current 50% approval rating. This and the state’s Republican bent make him a favorite for re-election in 2010, if not an overwhelming one. Some Republicans have threatened a primary challenge, calling Crist too moderate. At this point it’s hard to see that succeeding. Possible Democratic candidates include state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber (who is running for the State Senate this year), Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Representative Tim Mahoney, state CFO Alex Sink, and Rod Smith, who lost in the primary in 2006. None have the stature to threaten Crist absent a drop in the Governor’s popularity.

Senior Senator – Bill Nelson (D)

1994: Sen. Connie Mack (R) 70%, Hugh Rodham (D) 30%
2000: Bill Nelson (D) 51%, Bill McCollum (R) 46%
2006: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 60%, Katherine Harris (R) 38%

Senator Nelson’s big win in 2006 owes more to the incompetence of Katherine Harris than anything Nelson did. Republicans perennially hope that their strongest candidate, Jeb Bush, would run, but he repeatedly declines interest. Governor Crist would be the second choice. If an election were held today, either of those two would be favored over Nelson. The Democrat would likely retain his seat against any other Republican who has expressed interest, including Representatives Gus Bilirakis, Ginny Brown-Waite, Vern Buchanan, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Ric Keller, John Mica, Jeff Miller, and Cliff Stearns, State Attorney General Bill McCollum (who Nelson defeated in 2000), and Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton.

Junior Senator – Mel Martinez (R)

1992: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 65%, James Grant (R) 35%
1998: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 62%, Charlie Crist (R) 38%
2004: Mel Martinez (R) 49%, Betty Castor (D)

Mel Martinez and his bad toupee barely won in 2004. He does not seem to have become especially entrenched, and he will face a strong challenge in 2004. Republicans have rankled had his pro-immigration views, and some have suggested a primary, though that does not seem a serious threat.

The Democrats’ problem is that they don’t have a candidate both dynamic and known statewide. National Democrats want state CFO Alex Sink. Other possible candidates include State Senator Dave Aronberg, Jim Davis, state House Minority Leader Dan Gelber, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (who has tried to convince Davis to run to replace her as mayor), and Representatives Allen Boyd, Kathy Castor, Ron Klein, Tim Mahoney Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Robert Wexler (who seems determined to run for some higher office). This race should take some contour soon after the 2008 elections are over, but we’ll give Martinez the edge for now.

House 1 – Jeff Miller (R)

2002: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 75%, Bert Oram (D) 25%
2004: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 77%, Mark Coutu (D) 23%
2006: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 69%, Joe Roberts (D) 31%

Miller will have no problems beating Democrat Jim Bryan in this heavily Republican district.

House 2 – Allen Boyd (D)

2002: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 67%, Tom McGurk (R) 33%
2004: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 62%, Bev Kilmer (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) unopposed

This seat should be a swing district, but Boyd is entrenched. He won’t see a challenge from Republican Mark Mulligan in November.

House 3 – Corrine Brown (D)

2002: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) 59%, Jennifer Carroll (R) 41%
2004: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed.
2006: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed

Brown has survived ethical issues and is unopposed again in this grotesquely gerrymandered, heavily Democratic district.

House 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)

2002: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) 70%, Robert Harms (D) 30%

Crenshaw has only token opposition in Democrat Jay McGovern to hold onto this heavily Republican district.

House 5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

2002: Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 48%, Rep. Karen Thurman (D) 46%
2004: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 66%, Robert Whittel (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 60%, John Russell (D) 40%

Brown-Waite’s survived a primary challenge from religious conservative Jim King. She will trounce Democrat John Russell in November.

House 6 – Cliff Stearns (R)

2002: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 65%, David Bruderly (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 64%, David Bruderly (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 60%, David Bruderly (D) 40%

Stearns is safe against Democrat Tim Cunha in this mostly Republican district.

House 7 – John Mica (R)

2002: Rep. John Mica (R) 60%, Wayne Hogan (D) 40%
2004: Rep. John Mica (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Mica (R) 63%, John Chagnon (D) 37%

Dear Representative Mica, you have no real opposition from Democrat Faye Armitage. Please take the spare time this fall to ditch your toupee. If you insist on having “hair”, please invest in something that costs more than the 57 cents you poured into your current rug. Sincerely, Beyond the Polls.

House 8 – Ric Keller (R)

2002: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 65%, Eddie Diaz (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 61%, Stephen Murray (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 53%, Charlie Stuart (D) 46%

Keller is breaking his term limits pledge in this swing district that he has easily held since 2000. He survived a primary challenge based on that pledge, and now faces Democrat Alan Grayson. The Democrat is a serious candidate who has raised nearly as much money as Keller, but spent most of it on the primary.

The Orlando based district is only marginally Republican (54% and 55% for George W. Bush). This promises to be a close race. I like Keller beating Grayson by a smaller margin than Keller had in 2006. We’ll keep watching this race, and I suspect that will last beyond 2008.

House 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)

2002: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) 72%, Chuck Kalogianis (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) unopposed
2006: Gus Bilirakis (R) 56%, Phyllis Busansky (D) 44%

Democrat Bill Mitchell won a primary over a much better funded and touted opponent, but has no chance in what would otherwise be a swing district.

House 10 – Bill Young (R)

2002: Rep. Bill Young (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bill Young (R) 69%, Bob Derry (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Bill Young (R) 66%, Samm Simpson (D) 34%

This would be a swing district, but it is going to keep the veteran Young for as long as he runs. Democratic Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth doesn’t have nearly enough ammunition.

House 11 – Kathy Castor (D)

2002: Rep. Jim Davis (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Jim Davis (D) unopposed
2006: Kathy Castor (D) 70%, Eddie Adams (R) 30%

Castor will easily dismiss Republican Eddie Adams in this safe Democratic district.

House 12 – Adam Putnam (R)

2002: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) 65%, Bob Hagenmaier (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) unopposed

Democrats are not trying in this Republican leaning seat. Democrat Doug Tudor is not a serious candidate.

House 13 – Vern Buchanan (R)

2002: Katherine Harris (R) 55%, Jan Schneider (D) 45%
2004: Rep. Katherine Harris (R) 55%, Jan Schneider (D) 45%
2006: Vern Buchanan (R) 50%, Christine Jennings (D) 50%

Christine Jennings is running very hard again after losing by 369 votes, and has raised over $1.5 million. Buchanan has nearly $3 million, plus an immense personal forture. Democrats are targeting this Central Florida seat.

I think Buchanan should have an easier time of it in 2008. Last time, Buchanan had to deal not only with the wave, but the foibles of his predecessor’s faltering run for the Senate. He has the advantage of incumbency this time, plus he should benefit from John McCain. The district leans Republican (56% for Bush in 2004), and I think it will return the Republican Buchanan. Polls in the district have shown him ahead, confirming my suspicions. It won’t, however, be easy for him.

House 14 – Connie Mack (R)

2002: Rep. Porter Goss (R) unopposed
2004: Connie Mack (R) 68%, Robert Neeld (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Connie Mack (R) 64%, Robert Neeld (D) 36%

Mack is so safe in this extremely Republican district against Democrat Robert Neeld that he can marry California Representative Mary Bono without sweating.

House 15 – Dave Weldon (R)

2002: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 63%, Jim Tso (D) 37%
2004: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 65%, Simon Pristoop (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 56%, Bob Bowman (D) 44%

Weldon is retiring, leaving a competitive race in this Republican leaning (57% for Bush in 2004) Brevard/Osceola seat. Republican State Senator Bill Posey managed to unite the local establishment.

Democrats could easily compete here, but nominee Steve Blythe has raised less than $60,000. That won’t cut it. Posey should win.

House 16 – Tim Mahoney (D)

2002: Rep. Mark Foley (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Mark Foley (R) 68%, Jeff Fisher (D) 32%
2006: Tim Mahoney (D) 50%, Joe Negron (R) 48%

Mahoney almost certainly owes his win in this convoluted Central Florida district to the fact that his opponent ran under the name of America’s most famous child predator. He won’t get that lucky again.

This district is often reported as “overwhelmingly Republican” when it is really a swing district. Bush won 53% and 54% here in his two elections. Mahoney got off to a rocky start, but now has raised over $2.5 million. Republicans got their preferred candidate in Tom Rooney, who should be able to self fund though he hasn’t yet. If the district really was solidly Republican, I’d probably say Mahoney would lose as he isn’t a great candidate and has complained about his job. However, the district’s true nature plus the divided Republicans make Mahoney a SLIGHT favorite. We’ll be watching this one all the way through.

House 17 – Kendrick Meek (D)

2002: Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed

No Republican will ever win here, and nobody is trying.

House 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

2002: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 69%, Ray Chote (D) 29%
2004: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 65%, Sam Sheldon (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 62%, David Patlack (D) 38%

Democrat Annette Taddeo has been running a quite aggressive race. She’s gotten this race on the radar, but she still has way less funds than Ros-Lehtinen. The suburban Miami/Florida Keys district leans Republican, and while it may have trended a tad Democratic, there hasn’t been a massive shift.

Ros-Lehtinen hasn’t done anything to suggest she’s in trouble, and I suspect it would take a massive wave to knock her off. That is possible, but looking highly unlikely at this point.

House 19 – Rep. Robert Wexler (D)

2002: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) 72%, Jack Merkl (R) 28%
2004: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed

I’ve been seeing quite a few ads for Robert Wexler on the Internet (I do not live in Florida), which identify him as “Loud and Liberal”. Since Wexler clearly doesn’t need help to beat Republican Edward Lynch, I surmise he is angling for higher office.

House 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

2002: Rep. Peter Deutsch (D) unopposed
2004: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 70%, Margaret Hostetter (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) unopposed

Wasserman Schultz has no opponent in this heavily Democratic district.

House 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

2002: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 59%, Frank Gonzalez (D) 41%

Diaz-Balart has a real opponent for the first time this year. Democrat Raul Martinez has good name recognition and has raised more than enough funds to be competitive. Diaz-Balart will almost certainly have the worst margin of his career.

That said, Diaz-Balart is still a clear favorite in this South Florida seat. He is no slouch himself and will outspend Martinez, though not by too much. He’s reasonably popular and hasn’t committed any missteps. Most importantly, the district leans Republican, giving George W. Bush 57% in 2004. At this point, it’s hard to see Obama helping the Democrat in this majority Hispanic (Cuban) seat. Martinez could win in a Democratic wave, but it isn’t likely.

House 22 – Ron Klein (D)

2002: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 61%, Carol Roberts (D) 39%
2004: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 63%, Robin Rorapaugh (R) 35%
2006: Ron Klein (D) 51%, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 47%

In a year as Democratic as 2006, it was pretty much inevitable that Klein would win this bizarrely shaped, Democratic leaning Broward/Palm Beach district. Klein has taken no chances, raising over $3.3 million.

Republicans had trouble finding a candidate, finally settling on Allen West. He will be horribly underfunded and has nothing to recommend him. Republicans are probably going to need to wait for the next Republican wave in order to beat Klein, if one ever comes.

House 23 – Alcee Hastings (D)

2002: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) 78%, Charles Laurie (R) 23%
2004: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D)

Hastings has easily had the best career of anyone impeached and removed from office in the nation’s history. Republican Marion Thorpe can try to do better than the 24% George W. Bush got here in 2004.

House 24 – Tom Feeney (R)

2002: Tom Feeney (R) 62%, Harry Jacobs (D) 38%
2004: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) 58%, Clint Curtis (D) 42%

Democrats decided to challenge Feeney after his unimpressive performance against bizarre challenger Clint Curtis in this Daytona/Space Coast swing district. Suzanne Kosmas is the Democratic nominee and is competitive with Feeney in fundraising.

Feeney had some ties to Jack Abramoff, and the publicity off of this matter keeps getting worse and worse for him. Kosmas continues to gain and Feeney looks in more trouble by the day. The Democratic mood helps Kosmas, but I still give Feeney a slight edge. I don’t see enough here yet to call Kosmas the favorite. I do think this election will be quite close, as Feeney just does not look all that impressive in any respect.

House 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

2002: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 65%, Annie Betancourt (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 58%, Michael Caldarin (D) 42%

Like Feeney, Diaz-Balart performed poorly against pathetic opposition in 2006. He faces a more vigorous challenge this year in his South Florida district from Joe Garcia.

Garcia has done reasonably very well in fundraising. However, this district leans Republican (55% and 56% for George W. Bush), and Diaz-Balart has avoided negative publicity. Something else will need to happen for Garcia to win.

House Predictions: 16 Republicans, 9 Democrats…NO CHANGE