State of the Day - Kansas

On a national level, the Sunflower State has proved as reliably Republican as they come. It’s delivered for the Republican for President every time since 1968, and it has the longest streak of not electing a Democratic Senator, 76 years.

On the state level, Kansas has developed a sort of three party politics. The Republican Party has become split between its conservative and moderate wings. This has allowed Democrats to succeed by winning over moderate Republicans against conservative GOP nominees. Governor Kathleen Sebelius best represents this phenomenon, winning re-election with a formerly Republican Lieutenant Governor in 2006. The split also helped seat two Democratic Representatives in this decade. When Republicans unite, as in a Presidential race, Democrats have no chance. When Republicans split (usually by nominating very conservative candidates), moderate Democrats can and do win.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 54%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 36%
2000: George Bush (R) 58%, Al Gore (D) 37%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 62%, John Kerry (D) 37%

Kansas may vote for moderate Democrats at home, but they don’t go for the liberal national nominees. Barack Obama would not succeed as a Kansas Democrat and John McCain will not divide Kansas Republicans, so this won’t be a race in November. In a Democratic year, a tendency to run a bit better than an average Democrat in hugely red states, and perhaps some local ties from his family, he’ll do better than John Kerry. It won’t matter.

Prediction: McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 41%

Governor – Kathleen Sebelius (D)

1998: Gov. Bill Graves (R) 73%, Tom Sawyer (D) 23%
2002: Kathleen Sebelius (D) 53%, Tim Shallenburger (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) 58%, Jim Barnett (R) 40%

Governor Sebelius cannot run for reelection in 2010. Paul Morrison was considered the leading Democratic candidate to replace her, but a sexual harassment suit probably ends that. Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson (a former state GOP Chairman) would be the favorite, with John Moore a second choice. Both are moderates. Senator Sam Brownback would probably be the strongest Republican, as he would clear the primary field and be the one conservative guaranteed of getting moderate votes. Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh and Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger are iffier bets. Right now, Democrats look like SLIGHT favorites to hold the seat, based on running off of Sebelius’s solid popularity. We’ll have to wait to see if the Republican Party can unite, which is usually the test.

Senior Senator – Sam Brownback (R)

1992: Sen. Bob Dole (R) 63%, Gloria O’Dell (D) 31%
1996 special: Sam Brownback (R) 54%, Jill Docking (D) 43%
1998: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) 65%, Paul Feleciano (D) 32%
2004: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) 69%, Lee Jones (D) 27%

Senator Brownback has announced his retirement in 2010 to conform with a term limits pledge. Republicans promise to have their usual primary. Leading Republican candidates include Representatives Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger, State Senator Derek Schmidt, State Representative Lee Tafanelli, and Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh. The Republican will be a huge favorite unless Governor Kathleen Sebelius runs, but a Cabinet appointment seems more likely for her at this point. Dan Glickman would probably be the next best option. Lee Jones has expressed interest in another run, but he’d have no chance.

Junior Senator – Pat Roberts (R)

1990: Sen. Nancy Kassebaum (R) 74%, Dick Williams (D) 26%
1996: Pat Roberts (R) 62%, Sally Thompson (D) 34%
2002: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) unopposed

A few years ago, a national poll identified Roberts as the nation’s most unpopular senator. As Roberts is an affable mainstream conservative, I suspect that result came from having a similar name as a certain controversial televangelist. That’s hardly a problem in Kansas, though Roberts’s approval rating continually hovers in the mid-50’s. Democrats got their preferred candidate when former Congressman and gubernatorial candidate Jim Slattery ran. Some Democrats have talked up Slattery, but I don’t see why. He will be outspent by at least a five to one margin, and polls consistently show Roberts with a double digit lead. Democrats would need a huge opening to win this seat, and Roberts is not providing it. Don’t expect any suspense here.

Prediction: Sen. Roberts (R) 60%, Slattery (D) 40%

House 1 – Jerry Moran (R)

2002: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) 79%, John Doll (D) 20%

I dare anybody to write a comment telling me how Democrat James Bordonaro has any chance in this district, especially considering he has negative ten dollars on hand.

House 2 – Nancy Boyda (D)

2002: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) 60%, Dan Lykins (D) 38%
2004: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) 56%, Nancy Boyda (D) 41%
2006: Nancy Boyda (D) 51%, Rep. Jim Ryun (R) 47%

It took the wave of 2006 for Democrats to win this mostly Republican seat (59% for Bush in 2004) in East Kansas. Most of the population here is in Lawrence, Topeka, and Manhattan. Ryun’s ethical issues and typical infighting in the Kansas GOP helped.

Republicans got a huge break when Ryun lost the primary to moderate State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. She should be able to unite the local GOP behind her candidacy, especially since Ryun endorsed her immediately after the primary. Thus, the Republican split that usually allows Democrats to win here no longer exists.

In the previous edition of this column, I wrote that Jenkins would be favored if she won the primary. Boyda, however, has done very well for herself. She hasn’t raised the huge amount of funds as others have, but she will outspend Jenkins by a probably two to one margin. She has also done very well in local polling. SurveyUSA recently had her leading Jenkins 50-43.

I expect Jenkins to get closer than that. This district is simply too good for a Republican with a unified party to lose by very much. These factors make the race a tossup in the truest sense of the word. The election will come down to whether Boyda can retain the moderate Republicans she won from the more conservative Ryun in 2006.

Since I have committed myself to picking each election, I’ll give the wafer thin edge to Boyda, based mainly on her strong polling. I do think she is in serious trouble and probably will be as long as she has this seat.

House 3 – Dennis Moore (D)

2002: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 50%, Adam Taff (R) 47%
2004: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 55%, Kris Kobach (R) 43%
2006: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 65%, Chuck Ahner (R) 34%

Moore is always going to sweat in this Republican leaning Kansas City/Overland Park/Lawrence seat. He has gotten a good hold on the district, however, winning easily in 2006. Republicans somehow managed to agree on a candidate this year, State Senator Nick Jordan. He’s one of their better challengers this year.

Jordan is a serious, well funded candidate and this race should be much closer than Moore’s 2006 victory. That said, Moore has a good profile for this district and has demonstrated impressive strength. In what promises to be another good Democratic year, I find it hard to see Moore losing, at least at this point. In a Republican climate Moore will find it tough to survive.

House 4 – Todd Tiahrt (R)

2002: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 61%, Carlos Nolla (D) 37%
2004: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 66%, Michael Kinard (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 64%, Garth McGinn (D) 34%

Democratic State Senator Donald Betts has about as much chance of winning this overwhelmingly Republican seat as Mike Tyson does of winning the White House. I’m surprised he was even able to raise $154,000.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans…NO CHANGE