State of the Race

John McCain has surged....big time. He makes a huge move this week to grab the lead in the race for the White House. Coincidentally or not, the GOP improves its standing in Governor and Senate races this week. Though it still will be a tough year for Republicans in the Senate, Republicans can now hope to break even or actually gain governorships this year.

President

We see a major post-convention, post-Palin surge this week which moves John McCain into a very narrow lead in the Electoral College. Even with almost every state showing some movement to McCain, the race remains too close to call, with a possible range of 311 Electoral Votes for Obama to 296 for McCain.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Obama (22) - Michigan, New Mexico

McCain (47) - Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia

Colorado remains the trickiest state to handicap. Obama had a narrow lead and we would expect McCain to have gone ahead after his recent surge. Yet three polls released this week show small Obama leads (FOX News/Rasmussen and Insider Advantage Poll Position by 3, and Democratic leaning PPP by 1). Thus, I don't know what to think besides the obvious, that this state is very close. I suspect McCain has a small lead, because it doesn't make any sense to me that he surged everywhere but Colorado. I do think this will be the state that decides the election.

Michigan moves back into Tier I this week. Insider Advantage/Poll Position actually had McCain leading by 1 point here. Rasmussen gave Obama a 5 point lead, CNN/Time gave Obama a 4 point lead, and Republican leaning Strategic Vision reported a one point Obama lead. Average it out and you get a very slight edge to Obama in a race that is too close to call. Michigan bears watching, as Obama cannot win without it.

Rasmussen gave McCain a 49-47 lead in New Mexico. That's out of line with most polls of the state, but we would expect movement toward McCain. I don't have enough evidence yet to give the state to McCain, but I do move the state into Tier I, which means I think he might win if the election were today.

McCain led in four of five Ohio polls this week. FOX News/Rasmussen had him up seven points, and Republican leaning Strategic Vision and the University of Cincinnati had him up four. Insider Advantage/Poll Position had him up one point. Quinnipiac had Obama up five. The RCP average has McCain up two, which sounds just about right. The state remains too close to call, but flips to McCain.

McCain leads in three Virginia polls this week. SurveyUSA and FOX News Rasmussen had it 49-47, and CNN/Time had it 50-46. A 2-4 point lead would be expected after a McCain surge, so the state shifts to McCain this week. It remains in play, but I think Colorado and Ohio are better bets for Obama.

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (70) - Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin

McCain (27) - Florida

FOX/News Rasmussen had a tie in Florida, but McCain led by 5 (Dem leaning PPP), 7 (Quinnipiac), and 8 (Insider Advantage Poll Position). He holds a definite, if small, edge in Florida after the recent surge, so this moves down to Tier II.

In the absence of a state poll from Iowa, I use national polls as a basis to move the state to Tier II. It may come into play, but Obama has a definite edge in Iowa.

Minnesota moves up for the same reasons as Iowa.

Republican leaning Hoffman Research gives Obama a seven point lead in Oregon, 46-39. I debated whether or not to move Oregon up to Tier II based on national polls. It's a debatable call, but I did move Oregon up for this week. It's right on the edge and may move down, as I'm not optimistic about McCain's chances there.

Quinnipiac had Obama up three in Pennsylvania, while FOX News/Rasmussen and Republican leaning Strategic Vision had a two point lead in the state. Obama still has an edge here, but it's smaller than it was. This is a Tier II state.

We had three polls of Washington this week, all showing Obama leads. Rasmussen had it a two point race, SurveyUSA had the margin at 4, and the Elway Poll had the race at eight. This suggests a 4-5 point race in Washington, which represents major tightening and makes Washington a Tier II state.

Republican leaning Strategic Vision had a 49-46 Obama lead in Wisconsin. I don't think it's quite that close, but I think it has tightened up enough to move up to Tier II.

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (73) - California, Delaware, New Jersey

McCain (45) - Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Without a post-GOP convention state poll of California, I am going to be cautious and move the Democratic giant up to Tier III. It's one of the closer Tier IV states, and I'd like to see a state poll here showing it firmly out of reach before returning it to Tier IV. No, I don't think McCain really has a shot at it.

I use similar logic to move Delaware up to Tier III.

I don't have a poll this week from Indiana, but with the GOP base coming back to McCain, a state like Indiana looks out of play. This state moves down to Tier III.

Missouri is not a true bellwether anymore, and McCain has a serious advantage in the state. He leads in all recent polls there. This week he led Rasmussen by 5 and CNN/Time by 5. It's hard to see Obama winning Missouri, so the state goes to Tier III for now.

McCain's conventions seems to have brought the normally deep red states that McCain was looking sluggish in back into the GOP fold. A Rasmussen poll in Montana showing McCain up 11 illustrates this. It doesn't look likely that Obama can win Montana, so this moves all the way down to Tier III.

A Fairleigh Dickinson poll in New Jersey shows a relatively narrow six point Obama lead in the state. I don't think McCain will win New Jersey, but I do think he's likely to hold the margin to single digits, so the poll isn't an outlier. That makes the Garden State a Tier III state.

SurveyUSA had McCain up 58-38 in North Carolina, I don't think the lead is that much (Dem leaning PPP had the McCain lead at 4 and GOP leaning Civitas/TelOpinion had it at 3), but I do think after consolidation of the base North Carolina is looking much more like bad territory for Obama than it was two weeks ago. This is a Tier III state now.

MBE gives McCain a 44-39 lead in West Virginia. I suspect the lead there is more, as he has had bigger leads there before and I don't see why he'd backslide there. In fact, I'd expect Palin to play very well here. I'll be cautious and keep it out of Tier IV, but I do move it down to Tier III.

Tier IV (Safe)

Obama (99) - Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont

McCain (155) - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Rasmussen's finding of a 31 point McCain lead in Alaska confirms that Palin puts the state totally out of play for Obama.

The McCain surge moves Arizona back to Tier IV status.

Two polls of Georgia this week, a Republican leaning Strategic Vision poll showing McCain up 13 and an Insider Advantage/Poll Position finding of an 18 point McCain lead should put Georgia firmly out of play for even the biggest Obamaphile. Obama himself gave up here, which illustrates this is a Tier IV state.

Rasmussen's poll showing McCain up 14 in North Dakota confirms the base rallying around McCain/Palin. This phenomenon takes a state like North Dakota firmly out of play, if it was ever in play. It is back to it's expected position in Tier IV.

I'm ready to put South Carolina in Tier IV once and for all.

I don't have a poll from South Dakota, but the changing national climate makes it obvious Obama has zero chance there. It moves down to Tier IV.

Texas moves down to Tier IV for the same reason.

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
McCain 274
Obama 264 (pick up IA, NM)

Popular Vote
McCain 50.6%
Obama 48.9%

Governors

The Governors races this year boil down to Washington and North Carolina, both of which remain too close to call. We flip North Carolina to the GOP based on recent polling this week, so we project no net gains in Governor's races as of this moment, with a range of a 1 seat pickup either way.

Democrats lead 22-17 in states not up for election this year.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (1) - Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Republican (1) - North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring)

Three polls came out in North Carolina this week. Democratic leaning PPP showed Democratic Lt. Governor Beverley Perdue leading Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory by 5. Yet, Research 2000 had McCrory up 5 and SurveyUSA had him up 8. McCrory may be benefitting from increased enthusiasm about McCain in North Carolina. Perdue has led most previous polls, so I think it still remains too close to call, but I give McCrory whatever small advantage does exist.

Two polls this week showed Republican Dino Rossi leading Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire in Washington. SurveyUSA had a one point lead, and Rasumussen showed a 6 point lead. I've been pessimistic on Rossi's chances, especially after Gregoire beat him by two points in the all party primary, but I have to concede this race is too close to call.

Tier II (Leaning)

NONE

Tier III (Likely)

NONE

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (5) - Delaware (Ruth Ann Minner retiring), Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring), Montana (Brian Schweitzer), New Hampshire (John Lynch), West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Republican (4) - Indiana (Mitch Daniels), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Utah (Jon Huntsman), Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Current Outlook

Democrats 28 (pick up MO)
Republicans 22 (pick up NC)

Senate

We see the movement to the GOP seeping down into Senate races this week, solidifying Elizabeth Dole and giving Ted Stevens a chance to hold onto his seat. We still project the Democrats for a five seat pickup, with the possibility that it is only a four seat pickup.

Democrats lead uncontested seats 39-26.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (1) - Alaska (Ted Stevens)

A Rasmussen poll in Alaska shows Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading indicted GOP Senator Ted Stevens by two points. Ironically, the Palin pick may have enthused Alaska Republicans enough to where saving Stevens is not out of the question, as this is third poll in a row where Begich's lead is in the margin of error. This is back to a tossup.

Tier II (Leaning)

Republican (3) - Minnesota (Norm Coleman), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Three polls out of North Carolina confront us this week. Democratic leaning PPP has Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan leading GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole by one point, but Research 2000 gives Dole a six point lead and SurveyUSA gives her an eight point lead. This averages out to a small but significant lead for Dole, who moves down to Tier II this week.

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (3) - Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), New Hampshire (John Sununu)

Republican (2) - Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker)

Research 2000 shows GOP Senator Roger Wicker leading Democrat Ronnie Musgrove 48-43 in Mississippi. This is third straight poll giving Wicker a lead outside of the margin of error. Combined with the state's conservative bent and Musgrove's spotty history, it appears that Wicker has gained a significant edge, which moves this race down to Tier III.

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (13) - Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph Biden), Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (John Warner retiring), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (13) - Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Idaho (Larry Craig retiring), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring), Oklahoma (James Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Michael Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

Current Outlook
Democrats 56 (pick up AK, CO, NH, NM, VA)
Republicans 44

House

There is no change in the House rankings this week. While others have noted that the playing field looks better for the GOP than it did a few months ago, I was already more pessimistic about the chances for huge Democratic gains than almost everybody else. I continue to forsee a seven seat pickup (with a possible range of 1-14 seats) for the Democrats.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (6) - AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring), KS-2 (Nancy Boyda), NV-3 (Jon Porter), NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring), NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring)

Republican (7) - AK-AL (Don Young), LA-6 (Don Cazayoux), MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring), NJ-7 (Robert Ferguson retiring), NC-8 (Robin Hayes), OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring), WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (4) - FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter), PA-10 (Christopher Carney), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)

Republican (6) - CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave), CT-2 (Christopher Shays), FL-24 (Tom Feeney), LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (6) - AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney), GA-8 (Jim Marshall), IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring), MS-1 (Travis Childers), WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (6) - AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), MI-7 (Tim Walberg), NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring), OH-1 (Steve Chabot)

Tier IV (Safe, for now)

Democrat (28) - AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell), AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords), CT-2 (Joe Courtney), CT-5 (Chris Murphy), FL-22 (Ron Klein), GA-12 (John Barrow), IL-8 (Melissa Bean), IL-14 (Bill Foster), IN-2 (Joe Donnelly), IN-7 (Andre Carson), IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth), IN-9 (Baron Hill), KS-3 (Dennis Moore), KY-3 (John Yarmuth), ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring), MN-1 (Tim Walz), NH-2 (Paul Hodes), NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring), NY-19 (John Hall), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh retiring), OH-18 (Zack Space), OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring), PA-4 (Jason Altmire), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy), TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez), VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring)

Republican (43) - AL-3 (Mike Rogers), AZ-3 (John Shadegg), CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring), CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), FL-8 (Ric Keller), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan), FL-15 (Dave Weldon retiring), FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen), FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart), FL-25 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart), ID-1 (Bill Sali), IL-6 (Peter Roskam), IL-13 (Judy Biggert), IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring), IN-3 (Mark Souder), IA-4 (Tom Latham), KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring), LA-7 (Charles Boustany), MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring), MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg), MN-2 (John Kline), MN-6 (Michele Bachmann), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring), NE-2 (Lee Terry), NV-2 (Dean Heller), NJ-5 (Scott Garrett), NC-12 (Patrick McHenry), OH-2 (Jean Schmidt), OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring), OH-14 (Steven LaTourette), PA-3 (Phil English), PA-6 (Jim Gerlach), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), TX-7 (John Culberson), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), VA-2 (Thelma Drake), VA-5 (Virgil Goode), VA-10 (Frank Wolf), WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito), WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

Tier V (Totally Safe)

Democrat (199)

Republican (130)

Current Outlook
Democrats 243 (pick up AZ-1, IL-11, NV-3, NJ-3, NM-1, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, VA-11)
Republicans 192 (pick up LA-6, TX-22)