State of the Day - Minnesota

The Gopher State has a reputation for being quite liberal and Democratic. After all, it was the only state (not including DC) to vote for its favorite son Walter Mondale in 1984, thus giving it the longest streak of voting Democratic for President. It has a progressive, reform tradition, but Democrats (known as the Democratic Farmer Labor Party here) have struggled in recent years. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic Governor since the 1980’s, and in 1998 finished third in the Jesse Ventura victory. They also lost a Senate seat in 2002.

Minnesota leans Democratic, but it will easily vote for a Republican when Democrats nominate an extreme liberal, as they often do (or a third party candidate). Democrats came back toward the mainstream in 2006, winning an open Senate seat, a House seat, and coming within a bonehead comment of knocking off Governor Tim Pawlenty. Barack Obama’s progressive reform image works well here, but state Democrats may have misfired with liberal comedian Al Franken as the challenger to Senator Norm Coleman.

NOTE: Democrats in Minnesota run under the DFL label. I use “Democrat” and “D” below for simplicity, but each should be considered synonymous with “Democratic Farmer Labor” and “DFL”.


President – 10 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 51%, Bob Dole (R) 35%
2000: Al Gore (D) 48%, George Bush (R) 46%
2004: John Kerry (D) 51%, Pres. George Bush (R) 48%

Minnesota has the longest streak of voting for the Democratic nominee, but it’s hardly the most Democratic state. George Bush nearly won here twice. Republicans felt strong enough about their chances here to hold their national convention in St. Paul.

However, polls in Minnesota have consistently shown Obama with big margins here. McCain came closer after his convention, but his back to being down by around ten points after the financial meltdown. Obama’s progressive reform image plays well here, and he continues to do well in mostly white, northern states with significant rural populations. Combined with the Democratic tilt of 2006, it looks like Minnesota won’t seriously be in play this year.

Prediction: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%

Governor – Tim Pawlenty (R)

1998: Jesse Ventura (D) 37%, Norm Coleman (R) 34%*
2002: Tim Pawlenty (R) 44%, Roger Moe (D) 36%
2006: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) 47%, Mike Hatch (D) 46%

*Jesse Ventura was the nominee of the Reform Party in 1998. Official Democratic nominee Skip Humphrey received 28%.

Governor Pawlenty hardly looks unassailable here, having never received 50% of the vote. Nevertheless, with a 50% approval rating, he starts out as a favorite. The strongest Democratic candidates would be St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak. Weak candidates Mark Dayton and Al Franken would probably lose easily.

Senior Senator – Norm Coleman (R)

1990: Paul Wellstone (D) 50%, Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (R) 48%
1996: Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) 50%, Rudy Boschwitz (R) 41%
2002: Norm Coleman (R) 50%, Walter Mondale (D) 47%

Senator Coleman is obviously vulnerable. He won the seat under bizarre circumstances. His marginal state has moved away from his party. Yet, he got a huge boost because the Democrats nominated Al Franken.

The comedian has never run for public office, and it shows. His career provides wonderful fodder for finding controversial and stupid statements. He owes several thousand dollars worth of back taxes in seventeen states. We sometimes don’t realize how hard running for high office really is. Franken helps illustrate the point. I know some of you, especially Democrats, will disagree with me, but I’m going to say this anyway. Franken is a disastrous candidate. He will force Coleman to spend a good deal money (Coleman has raised $16 million to Franken’s $13 million), which the Senator has not had a problem obtaining from the national collection of Franken haters.

Even so, Franken may just win anyway. Coleman is not exactly a beloved figure in Minnesota is trending Democratic and Barack Obama will win this state by a good margin. Franken will have a united party behind him, and a generic Democrat would probably win easily. In addition, Franken has shown competence on issues and seems to have gotten some legs under him and has cut down his mistakes in recent weeks. Franken needs to find some way to minimize the vote of Independent Dean Barkley, who has been getting around 14% in most polls. Since that vote represents mostly people voting against Coleman but who can’t stomach Franken, the Democrat needs to hold Barkley to under 10%.

Early polls show huge Coleman leads, but those margins have narrowed recently. Coleman still leads, but by smaller amounts in general. This looks to be one of the closest races in the country. It is too close to call at the moment, but I predict Franken just alienates too many voters to win.

Prediction: Sen. Coleman (R) 46%, Franken (D) 43%

Junior Senator – Amy Klobuchar (D)

1994: Rod Grams (R) 49%, Ann Wynia (D) 44%
2000: Mark Dayton (D) 49%, Sen. Rod Grams (R) 44%
2006: Amy Klobuchar (D) 58%, Mark Kennedy (R) 38%

Klobuchar has cruised in her first two years in office. Her active response to the I-35 bridge collapse made her probably the popular politician in Minnesota, with large and growing approval ratings. With the normal caveats about the different things that can happen between now and then, Klobuchar looks to be in solid position for a 2012 reelection.

House 1 – Tim Walz (D)

2002: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 62%, Steve Andreasen (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 60%, Leigh Pomeroy (D) 36%
2006: Tim Walz (D) 53%, Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 47%

This swing district covers the Southern Tier of Minnesota, and has a population center in Rochester. Walz won it in 2006, and now will face a stiff challenge. Republican Brian Davis is a competent candidate, though he has been badly outraised by Walz

A Democratic poll released in early June showed Walz with a big lead over Davis. While I take such a poll with a huge grain of salt, these circumstances combined with current Republican weakness in swing districts leads me to think Walz will win. He’s certainly the favorite. This just does not look like a good year for Republicans to win seats like this.

House 2 – John Kline (R)

2002: John Kline (R) 53%, Rep. Bill Luther (D) 42%
2004: Rep. John Kline (R) 56%, Teresa Daly (D) 40%
2006: Rep. John Kline (R) 56%, Coleen Rowley (D) 40%

This district covers most of the Southern Twin Cities suburbs and is on the whole a swing district. Kline has entrenched himself very well and has fought off two strong challengers. This year, Democrats are going after Kline again in the form of Iraq War veteran Steve Sarvi. Sarvi hopes to make an issue out of Kline’s support for the Iraq War.

It’s hard to see the Democrats picking up this seat. Democrats tried to hit Kline to the Iraq War in 2006, when it was more of a liability than it is now. It didn’t work. Sarvi also had less than $105,000 on hand at the last reporting, compared to $650,000 for Kline. Given Kline’s success in previous cycles, it’s hard to see what Sarvi brings to the table that will give him the win.

House 3 – Jim Ramstad (R)

2002: Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) 72%, Darryl Stanton (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) 65%, Deborah Watts (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) 65%, Wendy Wilde (D) 35%

Ramstad decided to retire, leaving Republicans with a huge problem in this Western Hennepin County swing district. Luckily for Republicans, State Rep. Erik Paulsen looks like one of the best candidates in the country. He has all sorts of experience winning elections in this area, and has the sort of moderate profile that works well in this district.

Democrats rallied behind Ashwin Madia, who defeated Terri Bonoff and James Howland for the nomination. Madia is an Iraq War veteran who has tried to make the war a central issue in this campaign. He is more liberal than his Democratic challengers, and Republicans argue that he is too liberal for the district. He has proved a strong fundraiser and is competitive in that facet of the race.

Madia is not the ideal candidate for the district. The party’s chances would go up if they had a more moderate and experienced candidate. Even so, Madia may win anyway. 2008 continues to look like a year in which more liberal candidates can win swing districts. Bonoff might have been favored, however, while Madia is involved in a toss up situation.

For his part, Paulsen is more conservative than Ramstad, though he should not be too out of the mainstream of this district. Republicans are very excited about him, calling him one of the best recruits in the nation. If they can’t hold this seat, it will be a very bad year for them.

This seat is too close to call in every sense of the word. The climate favors Democrats, but Paulsen looks like a better candidate so far. Polls have shown a very narrow Paulsen, with large numbers of undecided voters. The race might hinge on turnout and whether Obama wins by enough to carry Paulsen with him. I pick Paulsen only because I have to pick somebody, but I don’t feel real confident in the prediction.

House 4 – Betty McCollum (D)

2002: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 62%, Clyde Billington (R) 34%
2004: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 57%, Patrice Bataglia (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 70%, Obi Sium (R) 30%

You can start playing taps for Republican Edward Matthews in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

House 5 – Keith Ellison (D)

2002: Rep. Martin Olav Sabo (D) 67%, Daniel Nielsen Mathias (R) 26%
2004: Rep. Martin Olav Sabo (D) 70%, Daniel Nielsen Mathias (R) 24%
2006: Keith Ellison (D) 56%, Alan Fine (R) 21%

Ellison will have a bigger problem fending off idiotic comments from Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode than with Republican Barb Davis White. The GOP has no hope here.

House 6 – Michele Bachmann (R)

2002: Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) 57%, Janet Robert (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) 54%, Patty Wetterling (D) 46%
2006: Michele Bachmann (R) 50%, Patty Wetterling (D) 42%

Bachmann impressed with a victory over highly funded Patty Wetterling in 2006, and now faces another challenge in this Republican leaning district, which stretches from St. Cloud to the Northern Twin Cities suburbs. Democrats united around Elwyn Tinklenberg, who outmaneuvered Robert Olson and Bob Hill for the Democratic nod.

Tinklenberg faces a cash problem right now. With $203,000 cash on hand at the end of August, he pales in comparison to Bachmann’s $1.4 million plus. The DCCC may make up some of that, but it will be an uphill fight for the Democrat. Bachmann’s money, impressive 2006 performance, and this district, all favor her. She looks to be a rising Republican star.

House 7 – Collin Peterson (D)

2002: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 65%, Dan Stevens (R) 35%
2004: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 66%, David Sturrock (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 70%, Michael Barrett (R) 29%

This district leans Republican, but the conservative Peterson has the district locked up. Serving as Agriculture Chairman doesn’t hurt. Republican Glen Menze does not represent a challenge.

House 8 – James Oberstar (D)

2002: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 69%, Bob Lemen (R) 31%
2004: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 65%, Mark Groettum (R) 32%
2006: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 64%, Rod Grams (R) 34%

The Transportation Chairman has only token opposition from Michael Cummins in this Democratic leaning district.

House Predictions – 5 Democrats, 3 Republicans…NO CHANGE