State of the Day - Mississippi

The Magnolia State has racially polarized politics. African-Americans, representing 36% of the population, vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Whites, almost all of the remaining population, vote for Republicans. The math works out better for Republicans, which explains why Republicans easily win this state on the Presidential level. They have also dominated Congressional and Senate races for most of the past twenty years.

Mississippi Democrats can win here, however, when they provide a conservative, down home image. This sort of candidate won a special election for the First District House seat earlier this year, and the similarly profiled former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is providing strong competition in the special election to fill Trent Lott’s Senate seat. Democrats also hold a huge majority in the State House Barack Obama will not win here, but Mississippi Democrats are more than holding their own.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 49%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 44%
2000: George Bush (R) 58%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 59%, John Kerry (D) 40%

There has been some talk, though it has mostly dissipated, that Obama could compete here on the back of a large increase in black turnout. As we’ve documented here at BTP, this is ridiculous. Even if he increased black turnout by the unrealistic levels he has mentioned, he would have to do substantially better than the 14% of whites that John Kerry got.

He probably will do better than Kerry or Gore did, if for no other reason than that Democrats are in a better position all over the nation than they were four years ago. If he picks up five points nationally on John Kerry, a reasonable bet, he’ll pull to within about ten points here, too. He’ll need more than that to actually win Mississippi, and he doesn’t have anything else. Simply put, Obama does not have the conservative profile a Democrat needs to win Mississippi whites, so he will lose this state. The margin will be better than Gore or Kerry got, but it won’t be close to winning.

Prediction: McCain (R) 54%, Obama (D) 45%

Governor – Haley Barbour (R)

1999: Ronnie Musgrove (D) 50%, Mike Parker (R) 49%
2003: Haley Barbour (R) 53%, Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) 46%
2007: Gov. Haley Barbour (R) 58%, John Eaves (D) 42%

Governor Barbour cannot run for reelection in 2011. It’s too early for the race to have developed at all yet, but I would think Representative Chip Pickering would be a major contender on the Republican side. Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant and predecessor Amy Tuck, a former Democrat, could also be major GOP factors. Either Representative Travis Childers or former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (if he loses the 2008 Senate contest) would have to profile to take this seat for the Democrats. The nature of the state makes the Republicans favored to hold the seat as long as we can only discuss the race in terms of generic candidates.

Senior Senator – Thad Cochran (R)

1990: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) unopposed
1996: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 71%, James W. Hunt (D) 27%
2002: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) unopposed

Senator Cochran has never had serious opposition. Democrats nominated perennial candidate Erik Fleming, which means the streak will continue.

Prediction: Sen. Cochran (R) 62%, Fleming (D) 37%

Junior Senator – Roger Wicker (R)

1994: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 69%, Ken Harper (D) 31%
2000: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 66%, Troy Brown (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 64%, Erik Fleming (D) 35%

Senator Wicker was appointed by Haley Barbour to fill the vacancy caused by Trent Lott’s resignation, pending a November special election to fill the final four years of Lott’s term. This has turned into a disaster for Republicans. They lost Wicker’s House seat in a special election, and now Wicker finds himself in a dogfight with Ronnie Musgrove, who looks like Wicker’s long lost identical twin.

Musgrove has greater name recognition than Wicker from his time as Governor, and has been running as an extremely conservative Democrat. Musgrove does have some problems, however. He lost his 2003 reelection bid easily and has far less money than Wicker. Mississippi also generally favors Republicans in Senate elections, but it has not had a competitive race in a while. This is technically an all-party primary, so the candidates will not have their party identification on the ballot. This could make it slightly easier for Musgrove to run away from his party. An increased black turnout may not help Obama, but it could prove vital to Musgrove.

Musgrove led in early polls, but Wicker has maintained a small lead since mid-summer. This is very good news for Wicker, as it indicates that he is solidifying his profile. If this remains close, I would expect Wicker to hit Musgrove with his support for changing the Confederate inspired state flag, an issue that helped Haley Barbour defeat Musgrove in 2003. In the end, Musgrove will need a huge black turnout to win. I expect this race to be close, but for Wicker to pull out the victory.

Prediction: Sen. Wicker (R) 52%, Musgrove (D) 48%

House 1 – Travis Childers (D)

2002: Rep. Roger Wicker (R) 71%, Rex Weathers (D) 24%
2004: Rep. Roger Wicker (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Roger Wicker (R) 66%, James Hurt (D) 34%
2008 special: Travis Childers (D) 54%, Greg Davis (R) 46%

If Governor Haley Barbour thought there was any chance Democrats could win this Northeast Mississippi Tupelo/Columbus district, he never would have vacated the seat by appointing Roger Wicker to the Senate. Democrats should never win this seat, which gave George Bush 62% in 2004. Yet it did. Republicans clearly are aiming to win this seat back.

Unfortunately for Republicans, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis is running again in November. Having already lost once this cycle to the very conservative Democrat Travis Childers, I’m not optimistic that turn the result around. He may benefit from having party identification on the ballot this time, as it wasn’t in the special election. Then again, the district is 26% black, so an Obama inspired turnout in that community would help Childers.

The Democrat won relatively easily in May, by a large enough margin to where simply having a Presidential election on the ballot won’t necessarily help. It is hard to see what has changed that could give Davis a chance to switch the result. Making matters worse, Davis is almost out of money. He can only hope his party status will carry the day in this district. That’s a very bad bet in 2008. Childers release a poll recently showing him leading Davis 51-39. Davis did not release a competing poll, solidifying the idea that he’s behind. Republicans will win this district again, but it won’t be Davis in 2008.

House 2 – Bennie Thompson (D)

2002: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 55%, Clinton LeSueur (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 58%, Clinton LeSueur (R) 41%
2006: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 64%, Yvonne Brown (R) 36%

Based on his results, Thompson must lose the white vote by an overwhelming margin. Luckily for him, the district is 63% black. Republican Richard Cook isn’t even running a real campaign.

House 3 – Chip Pickering (R)

2002: Rep. Chip Pickering (R) 64%, Rep. Ronnie Shows (D) 35%
2004: Rep. Chip Pickering (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Chip Pickering (R) unopposed

Pickering is retiring, but Democrats are not trying in this overwhelmingly Republican seat. Republican Gregg Harper will crush the Democrat, Pickens Alderman Joel Gill.

House 4 – Gene Taylor (D)

2002: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 75%, Karl Mertz (R) 21%
2004: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 64%, Michael Lott (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 80%, Randy McDonnell (R) 20%

In theory, Democrats should never have a chance in this overwhelmingly Republican district, the most Republican district in Mississippi. The key is that Gene Taylor isn’t much of a Democrat, at least by national standards, and Republicans don’t really see the need to go after him. Republican John McCay is underfunded and hopelessly outgunned.

House Predictions: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican…NO CHANGE