State of the Day - Nevada

The Battle Born State has grown more rapidly than any other state over the past fifty years. With so many new people coming in, the politics here have changed rapidly. Historically a Democratic state, in the 1980’s the state became heavily Republican. It surprised many by going twice for Bill Clinton, thanks in part to his pledge to veto a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. It then voted twice narrowly for George W. Bush. Fast growing Las Vegas can be quite volatile. It leans Democrat with a heavy Hispanic population, but it also has its share of cultural conservatives and, of course, social libertarians. The rest of the state tends to vote Republican.

In state politics, Nevada seems to tilt slightly Republican. It has gone Republican for Governor three times in a row, and open Senate and House seats this decade have gone easily for Republicans. Yet, the two Republican House seats are under siege this year, and the state looks awfully close in the race for the White House. While Nevada stands the best chance of three in play western states (Colorado and New Mexico being the others) of remaining Republican, it could go either way.


President – 5 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 44%, Bob Dole (R) 43%
2000: George Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 50%, John Kerry (D) 48%

The last few elections have seen Nevada go from a few points right of center to essentially right at the national average in 2004. President Bush’s decision to accept a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain did not help him at all here, and probably gave Kerry a couple of more points than the state otherwise would have. So many new people come into Nevada it is always hard to give the trend. Without Yucca Mountain in the picture, I think the state remains 1-2 points more Republican than the nation.

Of course, if Obama is winning by five points nationally, that would lead to him winning the state. He also has a few advantages here. He built a strong organization here for the state’s caucuses early in the year, which he lost. He has maintained a strong organization in the state. He also hopes to benefit from a large Hispanic vote. Las Vegas has boomed in recent years thanks in part to a strong housing market, so a downturn could hit especially hard here, which would work to Obama’s advantage.

Polling here has consistently shown a close race. McCain led by a narrow margin in most polls throughout the summer. However, tracking the rest of the nation, Obama has polled slightly ahead in surveys since the financial meltdown began publicly. It seems like he has a lead of 2-4 points, still better for McCain than polls in other swing states that show him down double digits. He can win here, but he also needs a good deal more or else it will not matter.

To win the election, McCain essentially needs to win Ohio and two of the three western states. Nevada is the best bet of the three for McCain, so if he loses here he probably already lost Colorado and New Mexico, and thus the election. Nevada will be close, but it’s not on the top tier of importance.

Prediction: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%

Governor – Jim Gibbons (R)

1998: Kenny Guinn (R) 52%, Jan Jones (D) 42%
2002: Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) 68%, Joe Neal (D) 22%
2006: Jim Gibbons (R) 48%, Dina Titus (D) 44%

Governor Gibbons has been a magnet for bad publicity and scandal. Over the last two years, among other things he has been investigated for bribery, faced allegations of sexual assault, received boos at a UNLV commencement ceremony, divorced his wife, moved from Carson City to Reno, and been seen in the company of a Playboy Playmate (and he’s not even from Las Vegas). Needless to say, this has not helped his public standing. His approval ratings are topping out at 25%, a number that would make reelection almost impossible. Democrats have a golden opportunity, but no obvious candidate as of yet. The eventual candidate will probably come from a pool of State Assembly Leader Barbara Buckley, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, and State Attorney General Catherine Masto. State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, the 2006 loser, has also been mentioned. She, however, is running for Congress, so this would probably take her out of the equation either way, either as a branded loser or a rookie Representative not in position to run for Governor. At this point, any Democrat would be a heavy favorite to oust Gibbons.

Senior Senator – Harry Reid (D)

1992: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 51%, Demar Dahl (R) 40%
1998: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 48%, John Ensign (R) 48%
2004: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 61%, Richard Ziser (R) 35%

The Majority Leader could be in some trouble in 2010. This isn’t a new situation. He won by 428 votes in 1998. Polls have shown that his approval ratings in Nevada have fallen into the high thirties. Republicans generally despise Senator Reid, so his ceiling is probably pretty low. On the flip side, Reid can bring a lot of money into Nevada, and he can drown his opponent in campaign funds. Nevada is not as Republican as South Dakota when it ousted his predecessor as Democratic leader, Tom Daschle, but Reid doesn’t have Daschle’s personal popularity. If Obama won and had a Bill Clinton-esque first two years, Reid would have a huge problem. The key will be the GOP candidate. The top Republican candidate would probably be Kenny Guinn, but he doesn’t appear likely to run. Representatives Dean Heller or Jon Porter (who is in serious trouble for his House seat this year) would have a pretty good chance of winning. If the GOP turns to Richard Ziser or someone of his ilk, Reid would probably win. He starts as a slight underdog if (and that’s a big if) Republicans field a strong candidate.

Junior Senator – John Ensign (R)

1994: Sen. Richard Bryan (D) 51%, Hal Furman (R) 41%
2000: John Ensign (R) 55%, Ed Bernstein (D) 40%
2006: Sen. John Ensign (R) 55%, Jack Carter (D) 41%

Senator Ensign seems in better position than Harry Reid, with wide winning margins and approval ratings over 50%. In Republican leaning Nevada, he would be a strong favorite in the default scenario. The best Democratic candidates are probably Representative Shelly Berkley and State Treasurer Kate Marshall. State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, who is running for the U.S. House this year, is another possibility.

House 1 – Shelley Berkley (D)

2002: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 54%, Lynette Boggs-McDonald (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 66%, Russ Mickelson (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 65%, Kenneth Wegner (R) 31%

The Zsa Zsa Gabor of the House, Berkley is safe from the pathetic challenge of Republican Kenneth Wegner in this mostly Democratic district. This gives her time to figure out whether it should be an eye lift or nose job this time.

House 2 – Dean Heller (R)

2002: Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) 74%, Travis Souza (D) 20%
2004: Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) 67%, Angie Cochran (D) 27%
2006: Dean Heller (R) 50%, Jill Derby (D) 45%

Democrats were encouraged by their respectable performance here in 2006. As a result, they are trying to win in this mostly Republican “rest of the state” district which includes population centers in Reno, Carson City, and Ely. Jill Derby is running again for the Democrats. Therein lies the problem.

Derby isn’t a bad candidate at all, in fact she is actually quite a good one. But think of it this way. In 2006 Derby was very well funded running in an open seat in the best Democratic year in a generation. She still did not win. Now, she’s running against they guy who beat her, and now he’s an incumbent who hasn’t made a major misstep. He has a huge funding advantage. She hopes more registered voters will help her, but I don’t see how that can help her make up the gap. I fail to see what about the calculus has changed to make Derby anything but a decided underdog. Research 2000 recently showed Heller up 47-42. This gives her a chance of some sort, but I’d be shocked if she won.

House 3 – Jon Porter (R)

2002: Jon Porter (R) 56%, Dario Herrera (D) 37%
2004: Rep. Jon Porter (R) 54%, Tom Gallagher (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Jon Porter (R) 48%, Tessa Hafen (D) 47%

This is a classic swing district encompassing Henderson and much of the Las Vegas suburbs, and Porter has a major challenge on his hands. State Senator Dina Titus, close loser of the 2006 gubernatorial race, is expected to win the August primary. She got a late start after preferred Democrat Bob Daskas dropped out.

Porter has not nailed down this district. He barely won against Tessa Hafen in 2006, who probably wasn’t as good a candidate as Titus. His party ID is clearly weighing him down here, especially since the subprime lending crisis hits especially hard in this district with a very high foreclosure rate. This is simply not a very good year to run as a Republican in a district like this, and that is Porter’s biggest problem.

Titus is still trying to overcome her late start. Her financial situation is terrible. While Porter has raised over $2 million, Titus has only raised about $663,000 and has less than $40,000 on hand. The DCCC will help her out enormously. On the flip side from Titus, she has good name recognition and a generally favorable image from her 2006 gubernatorial campaign. Barack Obama has had a major ground presence in this district, and that should be a boon to Titus.

Polls have been split in this district. Titus recently released a poll showing her leading by nine, while Porter released a poll showing him up two. Even that poll is an ominous sign for the incumbent Porter. That he would release a poll like that indicates that he is in some trouble.

This race is a pure tossup. Since I have to pick, I am going with Titus. The political climate favors her, and she seems to be making the most of her limited resources. Every indicator suggests Porter is in serious trouble. The House situation keeps looking better and better for Democrats nationally. That will sweep Titus into office.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats, 1 Republican…+1 DEMOCRATS