State of the Day - New York

For most of American history, the Empire State was a closely divided state that often held the balance in national politics. It featured boss politics and political machines, vigorous two party competition, and a stature so high that a New Yorker was almost always in the mix for a Presidential nomination. The state still has machine politics that make it almost impossible for party outsiders to win, but it no longer has a vigorous two party system. In the past, Republican Upstate New York balanced Democratic New York City with the suburbs making the difference. Now, the suburbs have gone Democratic as well and upstate is smaller and less Republican than it was years ago. Republicans remained viable here up through the 1990’s, but have melted away so quickly they seem to have disappeared. Weak Republican statewide candidates in 2004 and 2006 took historically awful annihilations. The party lost three House seats along with the Governor’s Mansion, and even the downfall of Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer didn’t seem to help. The State Senate, long the Republican base in state politics, looks sure to flip to the Democrats sooner rather than later.

Republicans have become so weak here they may very well disappear entirely. As of now, the GOP controls six of the states twenty-nine House seats. Two of those six look certain to flip this year. Two others may very well go with them. Neither of the other two are exactly safe seats for the Republicans. If Democrats win the State Senate and control redistricting in 2011, when New York will lose at least one seat, it is entirely possible that New York will have a 27 or 28 member House delegation with zero Republicans. That’s how Democratic New York has become.

NOTE: New York has quite a few minor parties, notably the Conservative and Working Families (descended from the Liberal) Parties, that often cross endorse with each other and the major parties. For simplicity’s sake, I will not reference or refer to them here.


President – 31 Electoral Votes

1996: Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 60%, Bob Dole (R) 31%
2000: Al Gore (D) 60%, George Bush (R) 35%
2004: John Kerry (D) 58%, Pres. George Bush (R) 40%

New York stands absolutely zero chance of being competitive this year or in the foreseeable future.

Prediction: Obama (D) 62%, McCain (R) 38%

Governor – David Paterson (D)

1998: Gov. George Pataki (R) 54%, Peter Vallone (D) 43%
2002: Gov. George Pataki (R) 49%, Carl McCall (D) 34%
2006: Eliot Spitzer (D) 70%, John Faso (R) 29%

Certainly nobody expected to use the words “Governor Paterson”. So far, he has maintained solid approval ratings, currently at 50%. The real question on the Democratic side is whether State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will try to oust Paterson. For the moment, it seems unlikely Rudy Giuliani will run, and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is trying to finagle another term in his current job. Aside from them, Democrats look certain to hold on to the Governor’s Mansion. Potential Republican losers include State Senators John Flanagan and George Winner (nice political name), Representative Peter King, and Rockland County Executive Scott Vanderhoef.

Senior Senator – Charles Schumer (D)

1992: Sen. Al D’Amato (R) 45%, Robert Abrams (D) 44%
1998: Charles Schumer (D) 55%, Sen. Al D’Amato (R) 44%
2004: Sen. Charles Schumer (D) 71%, Howard Mills (R) 24%

Senator Schumer is quite popular in New York, and heaven knows he makes sure that his name is recognized. I don’t think the best candidates the Republicans could possibly get, George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani, could beat Schumer, and I don’t think either will try. Assuming they don’t the only question here is whether Republicans can find somebody even more anemic than Howard Mills. I hear Alan Keyes is available.

Junior Senator – Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

1994: Sen. Daniel Moynihan (D) 55%, Bernadette Castro (R) 42%
2000: Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 55%, Rick Lazio (R) 43%
2006: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67%, John Spencer (R) 31%

Senator Clinton is not as wildly popular as Schumer, but it’s difficult to think that she won’t hold this seat as long as she wants it. Even the best Republicans, Representatives Peter King and John McHugh, or George Pataki, would have little chance at knocking off the former First Lady.

House 1 – Tim Bishop (D)

2002: Tim Bishop (D) 50%, Rep. Felix Grucci (R) 49%
2004: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 56%, William Manger (R) 44%
2006: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 62%, Italo Zanzi (R) 38%

National Republicans have evidently concluded they aren’t going to knock Bishop out of this swing district. Republican Lee Zeldin is trying but is going to come up way short.

House 2 – Steve Israel (D)

2002: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 58%, Joseph Finley (R) 40%
2004: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 67%, Richard Hoffmann (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 70%, John Bugler (R) 30%

Republicans would need a wave to knock Israel out of this mostly Democratic seat. Republican Frank Stalzer is so anemic he probably couldn’t win even if that happened.

House 3 – Peter King (R)

2002: Rep. Peter King (R) 72%, Stuart Finz (R) 27%
2004: Rep. Peter King (R) 63%, Blair Mathies (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Peter King (R) 56%, David Mejias (D) 44%

As well entrenched and popular as King is here, I’m surprised Democrats aren’t making an effort in this swing district. Democrat Graham Long isn’t, and King is safe.

House 4 – Carolyn McCarthy (D)

2002: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 56%, Marilyn O’Grady (R) 43%
2004: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 63%, James Garner (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 65%, Martin Blessinger (R) 35%

Republicans could win here under the right circumstances, but “2008” and “right circumstances for Republicans” don’t belong in the same sentence. The Republican nominee, Mineola Mayor Jack Martins won’t be able to make it against the tide.

House 5 – Gary Ackerman (D)

2002: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) 71%, Stephen Graves (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) unopposed

Republicans couldn’t win this one under any circumstances. Ackerman is safe against Republican Liz Berney for another term on his Washington houseboat, the Unsinkable II (the Unsinkable I sunk).

House 6 – Gregory Meeks (D)

2002: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed

This black majority seat is one of the most Democratic in the nation, and Meeks should clobber “unopposed” yet again.

House 7 – Joseph Crowley (D)

2002: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 73%, Kevin Brawley (R) 27%
2004: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 81%, Joseph Cinquemain (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 84%, Kevin Brawley (R) 16%

People may complain about Crowley, the epitome of boss politics, but New York is not amendable to insurgent primary challengers and the Republicans would do incredibly well if they got 30% here. Crowley is only nominally opposed by Republican William Britt.

House 8 – Jerrold Nadler (D)

2002: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 76%, Jim Farrin (R) 18%
2004: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 81%, Peter Hort (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 85%, Eleanor Friedman (R) 14%

Looking at these New York City districts, it’s hard to believe that the city hasn’t elected a Democratic Mayor since 1989. Nadler has job security on par with the pope, and Republican Grace Lin won’t change that.

House 9 – Anthony Weiner (D)

2002: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) 66%, Alfred Donohue (R) 34%
2004: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) 71%, Gerard Cronin (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) unopposed

This district is a conservative bastion by New York City standards, but there is no way a Republican could ever win it. Weiner is unopposed again, and he is concentrating on a 2009 run for Mayor. His previous mayoral run in 2005 ended in a primary defeat.

House 10 – Edolphus Towns (D)

2002: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 98%, Herbert Ryan (R) 2%
2004: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 91%, Harvey Clarke (R) 7%
2006: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 92%, Jonathan Anderson (R) 6%

Towns, who is 74 and looks 50, survived a primary challenge. Republican Salvatore Grupico has no chance in November.

House 11 – Yvette Clark (D)

2002: Rep. Major Owens (D) 87%, Susan Cleary (R) 13%
2004: Rep. Major Owens (D) unopposed
2006: Yvette Clark (D) 90%, Stephen Finger (R) 8%

Republican Hugh Carr must be into self-flagellation.

House 12 – Nydia Velazquez (D)

2002: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 96%, Cesar Estevez (R) 4%
2004: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 86%, Paul Rodriguez (R) 14%
2006: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 90%, Allan Romaguera (R) 10%

This is another one of those districts in which Democrats could top Bashar Assad’s “election” performance. Republican Allan Romaguera will be hard pressed to top his 2006 result.

House 13 – Vito Fossella (R)

2002: Rep. Vito Fossella (R) 70%, Arne Mattsson (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Vito Fossella (R) 59%, Frank Barbaro (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Vito Fossella (R) 57%, Stephen Harrison (D) 43%

I hope Fossella at least got good sex out of his affair, because he and his party have paid a hell of a price. This Staten Island seat, which also includes a slice of Brooklyn, is easily the most Republican district in New York City. However, it is a swing district by national standards. After Fossella imploded, all of the district’s prominent Republicans passed and the squabbling party had trouble agreeing on a candidate. Once they finally did, the nominee died. After more squabbling, they decided on Robert Straniere. Unfortunately, many local Republicans despise Straniere. Not only have most local Republican officials refused to endorse him, but he has raised less than $15,000.

Meanwhile, Democratic New York City Councilman Michael McMahon easily checked a liberal insurgent in the primary, and has unified Democrats and others (notably Mayor Michael Bloomberg) behind his candidacy. He also has a moderate image and record which plays very well on Staten Island. Given the GOP’s problems, any Democrat would win this seat this year. McMahon has a real chance to hold it.

House 14 – Carolyn Maloney (D)

2002: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 75%, Anton Srdanovic (R) 25%
2004: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 81%, Anton Srdanovic (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 84%, Danniel Maio (R) 16%

Next! Maloney is only barely opposed by Republican Robert Heim.

House 15 – Charles Rangel (D)

2002: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 88%, Jessie Fields (R) 12%
2004: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 91%, Kenneth Jefferson (R) 7%
2006: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 94%, Edward Daniels (R) 6%

It is impossible to overstate how Democratic this seat is. Republican Edward Daniels can’t hope to top ten percent even with Rangel’s ethical troubles.

House 16 – Jose Serrano (D)

2002: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 92%, Frank Dellavalle (R) 8%
2004: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 95%, Ali Mohamed (R) 5%
2006: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 95%, Ali Mohamed (R) 5%

Serrano may actually lose the white vote, but unfortunately for Republicans that’s only 3% of the population. Republicans couldn’t get 10% if they nominated Muhammad Ali, so needless to say they won’t get there with Ali Mohamed.

House 17 – Eliot Engel (D)

2002: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 83%, Scott Vanderhoef (R) 34%
2004: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 76%, Matt Brennan (R) 22%
2006: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 76%, Jim Faulkner (R) 24%

This is a Republican bastion compared to the last two districts, but it’s still one of the most Democratic districts in the nation. I’d suggest that Republican Robert Goodman take a vacation with his campaign money, but he doesn’t have enough cash to get past Yonkers.

House 18 – Nita Lowey (D)

2002: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) 70%, Richard Hoffman (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) 71%, Richard Hoffman (R) 29%

Darn there are a lot of overwhelmingly Democratic districts in New York. Lowey is safe against Republican Jim Russell.

House 19 – John Hall (D)

2002: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) 70%, Janine Selendy (D) 26%
2004: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) 67%, Michael Jaliman (D) 33%
2006: John Hall (D) 51%, Rep. Sue Kelly (R) 49%

This swing district in the upscale outer New York City suburbs should be up for grabs. Republicans lost two top tier candidates and had to settle for Kieran Lalor, who hasn’t raised near enough money ($375,000 to Hall’s $1.8 million).

Hall is not completely safe, but I’d be shocked if he lost, especially given how badly New York and national Republicans are doing. Lalor doesn’t look like the candidate to win. The Republicans blew it here.

House 20 – Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

2002: Rep. John Sweeney (R) 73%, Frank Stoppenbach (D) 24%
2004: Rep. John Sweeney (R) 66%, Doris Kelly (D) 34%
2006: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 53%, Rep. John Sweeney (R) 47%

This sprawling Eastern New York seat is a swing district, but Gillibrand wouldn’t have won it without scandals on the part of John Sweeney. Now, she’s raised nearly $4 million to defend this seat, which is good because her Republican opponent, Sandy Treadwell, has raised over $3.5 million, most of it self-funded.

Gillibrand has the moderate record that fits this district, and she’s put herself in pretty good condition. At this point, it’s hard to see the voters kicking her out in a year that promises to be as Democratic as 2008, but if Republicans come back Gillibrand could be in major trouble. That is highly unlikely at this point.

House 21- Michael McNulty (D)

2002: Rep. Michael McNulty (D) 75%, Charles Rosenstein (R) 25%
2004: Rep. Michael McNulty (D) 71%, Warren Redlich (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Michael McNulty (D) 72%, Warren Redlich (R) 20%

McNulty is retiring. Democrat Paul Tonko surprisingly won the primary and will win the general election over the GOP nominee, Schenectady County Legislator James Buhrmaster. Republicans really would need a good year to compete here, so in a year like 2008, it’s a safe Democratic seat.

House 22 – Maurice Hinchey (D)

2002: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) 64%, Eric Hall (R) 33%
2004: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) 67%, William Brenner (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) unopposed

Hinchey is safe against Republican George Phillips in this Democratic leaning district.

House 23 – John McHugh (R)

2002: Rep. John McHugh (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. John McHugh (R) 71%, Robert Johnson (D) 29%
2006: Rep. John McHugh (R) 63%, Robert Johnson (D) 37%

This is a rarity, a New York Republican incumbent not under siege. This seat votes at almost exactly the national average (49% and 51% for George W. Bush), but McHugh has only unserious opposition from Democrat Michael Oot.

House 24 – Michael Arcuri (D)

2002: Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) 57%, Jeffrey Miller (R) 34%
2006: Michael Arcuri (D) 54%, Ray Meier (R) 45%

Arcuri won this Utica based Central New York swing seat easily in 2006. Republicans have nominated Richard Hanna this time. In the beginning, Hanna looked a strong candidate to for a GOP pickup.

The GOP would generally have a decent chance here, given the underlying dynamics of the district. However, Arcuri is the heavy favorite. He has more money, a better profile, and good issue positions for this district. He also benefits from an environment toxic to the GOP. Having won the open seat easily, it’s hard to see him losing this time.

House 25 – James Walsh (R)

2002: Rep. James Walsh (R) 72%, Stephanie Aldersley (D) 27%
2004: Rep. James Walsh (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. James Walsh (R) 51%, Dan Maffei (D) 49%

Walsh decided to retire after his close call in 2006, while Dan Maffei is running again. He has raised quite a bit of money and is in great position in this Syracuse based swing seat. Republicans are in disarray and their nominee, Dale Sweeltand, has a divided, dispirited party. Maffei will also outspend him eight to one.

I can’t find anybody that thinks Sweetland will win.

House 26 – Tom Reynolds (R)

2002: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) 74%, Ayesha Nariman (D) 22%
2004: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) 56%, Jack Davis (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) 52%, Jack Davis (D) 48%

Reynolds decided to retire, leaving Republicans in a tough position in this Buffalo to Rochester Western New York seat. Republicans did not get their preferred candidate, but did end up with the adequate Christopher Lee. Democrat Alice Kryzan won the nomination over a candidate preferred by the party establishment.

Lee has outraised Kryzan, but the DCCC will probably make up some of that advantage. Lee probably has the edge in a neutral situation, but this is not a neutral situation. This is a big Democratic climate, and Kryzan is trying to tie herself to Barack Obama. Lee is selling himself as an independent who wants to reform Washington.

The DCCC released a poll showing Kryzan leading 39-29. That’s a lot of undecided voters, and it suggests that neither side has a huge edge. In the end, the result here will depend on how big the Democratic wave is. If Democrats pick up twenty seats, this one will probably flip. If the gain is closer to ten or less, Lee will probably win. Right now, I think it’s about a ten seat pickup, so I’m going with Lee. Watch the presidential polls. If Obama gains any more ground, then Lee is in trouble. If McCain comes back, Lee will win.

House 27 – Brian Higgins (D)

2002: Rep. Jack Quinn (R) 69%, Peter Crotty (D) 27%
2004: Brian Higgins (D) 51%, Nancy Naples (D) 49%
2006: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) 79%, Michael McHale (R) 21%

Republicans aren’t going to win this mostly Democratic seat in a year like 2008. GOP nominee Daniel Humiston can expect a beatdown.

House 28 – Louise Slaughter (D)

2002: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 62%, Henry Wojtaszek (R) 38%
2004: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 73%, Michael Laba (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 73%, John Donnelly (R) 27%

Slaughter is only lightly opposed by Republican David Crimmen, and this seat is off limits to the Republicans.

House 29 – Randy Kuhl (R)

2002: Rep. Amo Houghton (R) 73%, Kisun Peters (D) 21%
2004: Randy Kuhl (R) 51%, Samara Barend (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 51%, Eric Massa (D) 49%

Kuhl faces another strong challenge from Eric Massa in this Republican leaning Southern Tier seat. Massa has outraised Kuhl, but he did the same thing last time. Both are well known in the district.

Massa is predictably trying to capitalize on a climate dismal for the GOP. His ads and material uses the word “change” more than an average Robert De Niro movie uses the f-word. He’s also nailing Kuhl for changing his vote to support the bailout, which Massa says had too much pork in it. Kuhl is also promoting himself as a change agent, while featuring a multitude of local endorsements.

Kuhl led in early polls, but more recent polls have had Massa ahead. Like the rest of the country, the Democrat here seems to have the trend working for him.

I give Kuhl a small edge in this district, for the simple reason that Massa ran with the same advantages in 2006 and lost then. If you lose as a Democrat in a year like 2006, and nothing changes, you are probably an underdog in 2008. However, the possibility is growing that this year will be even worse for Republicans in 2008. If that happens, Massa may very well win. For now, I give the small edge to Kuhl.

House Predictions: 25 Democrats, 4 Republicans…+2 DEMOCRATS