State of the Race

The economic situation seems to be hurting the Republicans badly. The entire Western world has taken note of John McCain's swoon. However, the GOP has also fallen apart in the Senate, and a loss of seven seats looks more likely than not. They are slowly setting themselves up for a disaster in the House as well. Only in Governor's races are the Republicans performing respectably.

President

BTP Electoral Map - Obama 353, McCain 185.

Barack Obama continued to move up this week, though the surge may have plateaued. However, he currently has a four point lead nationally, which gives him a substantial victory in the electoral college. He has more than enough votes to win even without toss up states, as if the election were today he would get between 288 and 375 Electoral Votes. The toss up category is filled with states McCain simply must win. He must also win Colorado and Virginia, both of which clearly lead to Obama. This is as lopsided as the race has been.


Tier I (Toss Up)

Obama (67) - Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio

McCain (22) - Indiana, Missouri

McCain seemed to go down in Florida during the week. On Monday, SurveyUSA gave him a one point lead while Insider Advantage/Poll Position had it even. The next day, PPP showed a three point Obama lead, which one would expect in a PPP poll. By Wednesday, Insider Advantage/Poll Position had a three point Obama lead. CNN/Time and WSVN had four point leads for Obama and Quinnipaic had an eight point lead for Obama. This mirrors the national slide and is very bad news for McCain. The RCP average has a lead of 3 for Obama, which seems about right. It remains too close to call, but Obama has an edge.

McCain has also collapsed in North Carolina, a state he simply must win to have a prayer. ARG (and their dubious accuracy) has a two point lead for McCain, but PPP predictably has a three point Obama lead. A Thursday Rasmussen poll also has a three point Obama lead. The state is essentially tied, which dooms McCain even if he wins the Tar Heel State. On the weight of the majority of the polls, I assign it to Obama this week, even though that is pretty arbitrary.

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (26) - Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia

McCain (8) - Montana, West Virginia

Obama continues to hang around in Montana. Rasmussen released a poll on Thursday showing him down by eight points. McCain's standing is so bad nationally I have a gut feeling Obama may make one more run at Big Sky Country, so I move the state up to Tier II.

New Hampshire had seemed to be lagging behind the Obama surge, but now appears to have caught up according to two polls released on Friday. St. Anselm University/SLBI had Obama up 8, while Rasmussen gave Obama a 10 point. This makes sense given the national polls, and even if I believe the lead is smaller in New Hampshire, it still exists. New Hampshire moves out of the top tier.

West Virginia has been one of the toughest states to figure in this election. It is quite Democratic, but not exactly demographically tailored to Obama. The little polling of the state has been all over hte place. I move it up based primarily on Obama's national standing, but I admit that I don't have much to base that on.

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (63) - Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

McCain (39) - Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota

I would normally dismiss a ten point Obama lead in Michigan because it is a PPP poll. However, McCain's decision to pull out indicates it isn't really in play. The economic meltdown probably killed his chances here.

Rasmussen's poll of Mississippi gave McCain a 52-44 lead. This tracks a 4-6 national Obama lead. I don't think Obama can win Mississippi, but like Georgia, it is in single digits, and thus a state more appropriate for Tier III than Tier IV.

McCain isn't doing much better in Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac's 15 point lead for Obama seems high, but Franklin & Marshall (7 point Obama lead) and FOX News/Rasmussen (8 points), seem about right. This is a long shot for McCain.

Tier IV (Safe)

Obama (197) - California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

McCain (116) - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

I don't know why McCain is staying in Maine. He'd need to get within three points of Obama to have a chance of getting one Electoral Vote, and he isn't within ten points of that. He'd be better off in Michigan.

I'm ready to say New Jersey is totally out of play. SurveyUSA had Obama with a ten point lead and even Republican firm Strategic Vision had McCain down nine. Combined with a climate that suggests winning New Jersey is impossible, I'll mark that down for Obama.

Current Outlook
Electoral Votes
Obama 353 (pick up CO, FL, IA, NV, NM, NC, OH, VA)
McCain 185

Popular Vote
Obama 51.7%
McCain 47.9%

Governors

Republicans continue to look very respectable in the Governor's races, pulling ahead in North Carolina and locked in a total tossup in Washington. Right now we project a one seat GOP gain, with the worst Republican result being a push.

Democrats lead 22-17 in states not up for election this year.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Republican (1) - Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Tier II(Leaning)

Republican (1) - North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring)

Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has been steadily gaining on Democratic Lt. Governor Beverley Perdue in North Carolina, and now has a definite edge. Rasmussen gave McCrory a four point edge, and even PPP showed him up three. This continues a trend of slow but steady McCrory gains all summer. Even as John McCain is collapsing in the state, the GOP is looking good for the Governor's Mansion.

Tier III (Likely)

NONE

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (5) - Delaware (Ruth Ann Minner retiring), Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring), Montana (Brian Schweitzer), New Hampshire (John Lynch), West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Republican (4) - Indiana (Mitch Daniels), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Utah (Jon Huntsman), Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Current Outlook
Democrats 27 (pick up MO)
Republicans 23 (pick up NC, WA)

Senate

We saw some odd and gyrating polls this week, but the picture remains the same, which is bad news for the Republicans. We know predict a five to eight seat pickup for the Democrats, with the most likely number being seven.

Democrats lead uncontested seats 39-26.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrats (2) - North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Republicans (1) - Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

PPP released a poll showing Democratic State Sen. Kay Hagan leading GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, 46-38. That's a dubious result with a bunch of undecideds from a partisan Democratic firm. The race remains too close to call, but I'll shift it to Hagan this week.

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (3) - Alaska (Ted Stevens), Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring), New Hampshire(John Sununu)

Republican (1) - Mississippi special (Roger Wicker)

Rasmussen shows Mississippi GOP Sen. Roger Wicker leading Democrat Ronnie Musgrove 49-47, continuing a trend of small but definite Wicker leads. The race is close, but the state's Republicanism and Musgrove's lack of money give Wicker an edge.

I moved New Hampshire to tossup last week, which was premature. GOP Sen. John Sununu has gained on Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, but he is still behind. Rasmussen gives Shaheen a 50-45 lead, which sounds right to me. This race leans Democratic.

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (1) - New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Republican (2) - Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

SurveyUSA showed a mere two point lead for GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss over Democrat Jim Martin. I don't believe that for a second. However, the last two polls taken in this race have shown single digit margins, so I have no choice but to move the race to Tier III.

Two polls were released this week in Kentucky. Mason-Dixon showed GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Bruce Lunsford by merely one point, while Rasmussen gave McConnell a nine point lead. That Mason-Dixon poll is almost certainly an outlier, but the Rasmussen poll in single digits forces me to take this race out of Tier IV. Even so, I really don't think Lunsford is in the race.

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (13) - Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph Biden), Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (John Warner retiring), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (12) - Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Idaho (Larry Craig retiring), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Maine (Susan Collins), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring), Oklahoma (James Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Michael Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

A Rasmussen poll showed Democratic Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu leading Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy by thirteen points. Polls have shown double digit Landrieu leads for two months, and Kennedy is showing no signs of life. Landrieu is safe.

Current Outlook
Democrats 58 (pick up AK, CO, NH, NM, NC, OR, VA)
Republicans 42

House

We don't change any party assignments this week, but a deeper look shows a deteriorating situation for the GOP. More and more Republican seats are coming into play, increasing the chances of a huge Democrat year. We predict a Democratic pickup of between 2 and 16 seats, with the most likely number being a nine seat pickup.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (7) - AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring), KS-2 (Nancy Boyda), NV-3 (Jon Porter), NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring), NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring), OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring)

Republican (7) - CT-4 (Christopher Shays), LA-6 (Don Cazayoux), MI-7 (Tim Walberg), MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring), NJ-7 (Robert Ferguson retiring), NC-8 (Robin Hayes), WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

In CT-2, GOP Rep. Christopher Shays is now in so much trouble that the race is a tossup. His challenger, Democrat Jim Himes, released a poll showing the race tied. Given the source, this probably means Shays is sill barely ahead, but not by much. Shays's biggest problem is that the climate is horribly against. After he barely survived in 2006, he is the last GOP Representative in New England. Obama should win his district easily and the area is trending Democratic so rapidly you can almost see it. While Shays is pretty liberal, it is hard to see him surviving another big Democratic year.

In MI-7, controversial GOP Rep. Tim Walberg is in serious trouble. His own party seems to be divided against him and Democrat Mark Schaeur is a strong, well funded candidate. An EPIC-MRA poll shows Walberg up 43-40, a slight edge perhaps, but one that shows his vulnerability. This race is a toss up.

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (4) - FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter), PA-10 (Christopher Carney), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)

Republican (9) - CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave), FL-6 (Ric Keller), FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Tom Feeney), LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring), MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg), NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), TX-22 (Nick Lampson)

An aggressive Democratic campaign in FL-21 seems to be paying off. SurveyUSA actually came out with a poll showing Democrat Raul Martinez, who has raised quite a bit of money, leading GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart 48-46. This seems a bit much, and I keep it out of Tier I until more evidence comes in. That said, Diaz-Balart is clearly in some trouble in this Democratic year, especially as Republicans seem to be losing their lock on the Cuban vote which dominates that district.

The bad economy in Michigan has GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg in trouble in MI-9. Democrat Gary Peters released a poll showing him up four. EPIC-MRA sees a seven point Knollenberg lead, but with quite a few undecideds. Knollenberg is in a fight, but is in better shape than his fellow Michigander Tim Walberg. Knollenberg would win if the election was today, but the election is not today. This race moves up to Tier II.

In normally reliably red NM-2, Republican Ed Tinsley continues to struggle. Democrat Harry Teague is looking like he might have a real chance to win.

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (7) - AK-AL (Don Young), AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney), GA-8 (Jim Marshall), IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring), MS-1 (Travis Childers), WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (4) - AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring), OH-1 (Steve Chabot), PA-3 (Phil English)

In PA-3, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper continues to run a strong race against GOP Rep. Phil English, who seems to be having trouble activating his campaign machinery. I don't believe the Dahlkemper poll showing her leading, but this race is no longer safe for English. This race is much more likely to move up than down.

Tier IV (Probably Safe)

Democrat (29) - AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell), AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords), CT-2 (Joe Courtney), CT-5 (Chris Murphy), FL-22 (Ron Klein), GA-12 (John Barrow), IL-8 (Melissa Bean), IL-14 (Bill Foster), IN-2 (Joe Donnelly), IN-7 (Andre Carson), IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth), IN-9 (Baron Hill), KS-3 (Dennis Moore), KY-3 (John Yarmuth), ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring), MN-1 (Tim Walz), NH-2 (Paul Hodes), NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring), NY-19 (John Hall), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh retiring), OH-18 (Zack Space), OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring), PA-4 (Jason Altmire), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy), TN-4 (Lincoln Davis), TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez), VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring)

Republican (37) - AZ-3 (John Shadegg), CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan), FL-15 (Dave Weldon retiring), FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart), ID-1 (Bill Sali), IL-6 (Peter Roskam), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), IL-13 (Judy Biggert), IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring), IN-3 (Mark Souder), IA-4 (Tom Latham), KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring), LA-7 (Charles Boustany), MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring), MN-2 (John Kline), MN-6 (Michele Bachmann), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring), NE-2 (Lee Terry), NV-2 (Dean Heller), NJ-5 (Scott Garrett), NC-10 (Patrick McHenry), OH-2 (Jean Schmidt), OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring), OH-14 (Steven LaTourette), PA-6 (Jim Gerlach), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), TX-7 (John Culberson), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), VA-2 (Thelma Drake), VA-5 (Virgil Goode), VA-10 (Frank Wolf), WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito), WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

Tier V (Totally Safe)

Democrat (198)

Republican (133)

Current Outlook
Democrats 245 (pick up AK-AL, AZ-1, IL-11, NV-3, NJ-3, NM-1, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11)
Republicans 190 (pick up LA-6, TX-22)