Two New Virginia Polls - Odd Party ID?

Today, we see two new polls from Virginia. Survey USA gives Obama a 53%-43% lead, whereas Suffolk gives Obama an even larger 51%-39% lead. Looking at the internals, it's clear that BOTH polls have odd party ID.

For example, the Survey USA poll has 39% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 25% Independents. The Suffolk poll has 45% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 24% Independents/Unaffiliated voters. Neither poll is close to historic party ID in Virginia: The 2004 electorate was 39% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% Independent. This changed little in 2006, when the Allen-Webb electorate was 39% Republican, 36% Democratic, and 26% Independents.

Has party ID really shifted as drastically as Suffolk might have you believe?

Probably not. I will acknowledge that Democrats may have picked up some edge in party ID since 2004, but in two years I don't believe that Democrats have increased their support by 10% and Republicans have lost 9%.

The Survey USA poll is also fishy because it shows Obama doing equally as well among men and women (in 2004, Bush won men by an overwhelmingly margin and in 2006, Sen. George Allen won men by 10 points despite loss). I am not saying the poll is wrong - Obama probably does lead Virginia right now, but both polls have skewed party ID and other irregularities.

As noted in our State of the Race column released earlier today, if the election were held today, we believe Obama would win the state.

UPDATE: Welcome Campaign Spot readers! You may also enjoy our continuing series on Presidential Debates. You can find the latest installment here. Additionally, you may enjoy our State of the Day columns, as well as our weekly State of the Race column that covers the Presidential race, as well as all races for Governor, Senate, and the House of Representatives.