AR's State-by-State 2008 Election Analysis

AR is still sidelined by computer difficulties, but he emailed me some quick state-by-state thoughts about the election results. AR wrote these very quickly, so please excuse the lack of polish. These thoughts follow:

Alabama - Easy wins for McCain and Sessions almost certainly on racially polarized lines. Horrible loss for the GOP in House 2, but Bobby Bright will be continually hard pressed in that district, especially if Obama becomes branded as a liberal. Mike Rogers got a real test. Nice hold for the Democrats in AL-5. Bud Cramer held that seat forever, so Parker Griffith could become an institution and is much more likely than Bright to survive long term.

Alaska - It is now official. Alaska Democrats really can't win anything. It appears that convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens won, as did ethically challenged Rep. Don Young. They may both end up in jail, but it is safe to assume now that Republicans will replace them when they shuffle off.

Arizona - Honestly, had McCain not been from Arizona the state probably would have gone Democratic. No surprise that the Democrats picked up AR-1. Harry Mitchell only got 53%, and may be vulnerable if the GOP ever picks it up in House 5. In AR-8, it looks as if Gabrielle Giffords has entrenched herself.

Arkansas - Nothing to see here.

California - Obama had a 2.5 million vote plurality here, which deserves a moment of reflection. Dan Lungren had an unimpressive win in CA-3 and may see a real test if the Democrats stay hot. It appears as if CA-4 will get a recount, but Republican Tom McClintock is ahead by less than 500 votes. This seat should not be competitive at all, and it is hard to see the Democrats winning it if they can't this year. Jerry McNerney got a nice win in CA-11. David Dreier may have earned himself a future opponent by only taking 53% in CA-26. Ken Calvert came unnervingly close to losing CA-44, which was on no one's radar. Based on weak wins, I would look for Democrats to target Dana Rohrabacher (CA-46), Tom Campbell (CA-48), and Brian Bilbray (CA-50) more aggressively in the future.

Colorado - This state has clearly shifted its partisan preferences. It surprises no one that Obama won Colorado, but it should be noted that he won the state by more than his nationwide average. Thus, we can continue to look for Colorado to be a swing state or even lean Democratic in the future. Mark Udall's easy win is yet another piece of evidence that Colorado is more blue than red. In CO-4, GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave lost by such a large amount I cannot help but think it was about more than just Musgrave's weaknesses, and that Democrat Betsy Markey can actually hold the district.

Connecticut - Obama won easily as expected. GOP Rep. Christopher Shays finally lost in CT-4. Shays wasn't much of a Republican and actually denounced McCain last week, so this may simply save the GOP from spending resources here in the future. It does eliminate all Republicans from the New England House delegation, however.

Delaware - No surprises anywhere, and except for Rep. Michael Castle, no Republicans either. Joseph Biden gets a nice going away gift, and new Governor Sean Markell will appoint a Democrat to replace him.

DC - Next.

Florida - The Sunshine State is what we thought it was. It is a close state that can go Democratic, but the 51-49 margin for Obama indicates that it is still a few points more Republican than the nation. Thus, no Republican can win without it. Ric Keller can blame his own apathy for losing his House seat. In FL-13, Vern Buchanan clobbered Christine Jennings and should find himself safe in the future. Tom Feeney lost FL-24 due to ethical foibles. Republicans did have some good news, as the three Cubans won and they took the House seat donated by idiot Democrat Tim Mahoney.

Georgia - We were right about Georgia all along. Saxby Chambliss just missed a runoff. Without Obama driving black turnout it is hard to see Democrat Jim Martin winning a runoff, though you can expect all the excess DSCC funds to go here. Conservative Democrats Jim Marshall and John Barrow won much more easily than in 2006.

Hawaii - I know Obama has Hawaii roots and the state is heavily Democratic, but I expected McCain to get more than 27%.

Idaho - No surprises statewide. GOP Rep. Bill Sali is too conservative and abrasive even for Idaho, and even he only lost 51-49. Democrat Walt Minnick may be target number one for the GOP in 2010, assuming the Republicans can find a sane human being to challenge him.

Illinois - Obvious wins for Obama and Dick Durbin. The appointment lottery has begun for Obama's Senate seat. Given Governor Rod Blagojevich's ethical challenges, one might want to tread carefully with that. Republican Peter Roskam and Democrat Melissa Bean seem to have entrenched themselves. In IL-11, Democrat Debbie Halvorson's huge win is no surprise. Jim Oberweis should never run for public office again.

Indiana - It isn't hugely surprising given the polls, but Obama's win in Indiana is quite shocking on the national level. Yes, black turnout in Marion and Lake Counties was important, but McCain's real problem was that his margin in the rural counties, especially in Southern Indiana, were well behind George W. Bush in 2004 and Governor Mitch Daniels this year. I firmly believe his crusade against agricultural subsidies hurt him badly here. None of the House races were close, and Mike Sodrel can stop running now.

Iowa - Everybody knew Obama would win. Tom Harkin is so hated by conservatives that his 63% is especially impressive even given his useless opponent.

Kansas - No surprise that McCain and Pat Roberts won easily. Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda did everything right, but her loss just proves again that Republicans don't lose in Kansas when they nominate moderates. Lynn Jenkins should have a long career in the House.

Kentucky - Obama had no appeal here. Mitch McConnell would probably have wanted to win by more, but he'll take it, especially since he might have 44 Senators when 39 looked like a possibility. The GOP margin in KY-2 was relatively narrow, but if Democrats couldn't win the open seat this year they are unlikely to in the future.

Louisiana - McCain's 19 point margin in Louisiana should move the state off anybody's target list in the near future. Mary Landrieu won 52% against a terrible opponent. She's had more good fortune than most over the years. Bill Jefferson (will his trial ever occur?) won his primary and will win the December general easily. Democrat Paul Carmouche will face Republican John Fleming in the December general election in House 4. Twice as many people voted in the Democratic primary, and Republican enthusiasm should be depressed after this election, so the advantage here goes to Carmouche. Bill Cassidy actually picked up a seat for the Republicans by knocking off Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux. Black independent Michael Jackson got 12%, which doomed Cazayoux.

Maine - Why was McCain bothering here? They love ticket splitting in Maine. Susan Collins ran twenty points ahead of McCain.

Maryland - An obvious and easy win for Obama. The news comes from MD-1, where it appears that Democrat Frank Kratovil beat Republican Andy Harris in a heavily Republican Eastern Shore district by 915 votes. The local GOP split Kansas style between Harris and moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, who lost the primary and endorsed Kratovil. Assuming he holds on, the Democrat will be a major target in 2010.

Massachusetts - Do they still practice two party politics here?

Michigan - Easy wins for Obama and Combover Carl Levin. Democrat Mark Schaeur beat arch-conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-7, and Rep. Joe Knollenberg lost in MI-9 after being unprepared to campaign. A terrible year for Michigan Republicans.

Minnesota - McCain was never going to win Minnesota, and I'm surprised he kept trying. Otherwise, it was actually a good year for the state GOP, relatively speaking. GOP Senator Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 477 votes. A recount will occur, but Coleman should win in the end. Franken was clearly hurt by the 15% vote for Dean Barkley. Coleman ran only two points behind McCain but Franken ran 12 points behind Obama. Republicans have to be happy with the wins by Erik Paulsen in the hotly contested race for the open MN-3 seat, as well as by Michele Bachmann's survival in MN-6.

Mississippi - I was a bit surprised that Senator Roger Wicker won so easily, but the voting here clearly followed racial lines and Musgrove didn't win many McCain voters. Republicans need to find a real candidate to challenge Democrat Travis Childers in MS-1.

Missouri - Nobody will call it, but it seems that McCain won Missouri. This should spell the end of the idea of Missouri as bellwether, as it is now clearly more conservative than the nation as a whole. Jay Nixon's easy win for Governor is no surprise. Republican Blake Leutkemeyer didn't win the open MO-9 seat by as much as a Republican should, but the GOP will take what they can get.

Montana - Talk about ticket splitting. McCain won 50-47, but Democrats Brian Scheweitzer and Max Baucus won by huge margins, as did GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg.

Nebraska - Obama fell short of the Omaha Electoral Vote, as predicted. Mike Johanns won easily, as predicted. Lee Terry survived in NE-2 despite generally stinking up the joint, as predicted.

Nevada - I expected Obama to win Nevada, but a 12 point margin astounds me and is very bad news for the GOP. Dina Titus's defeat of Jon Porter was expected, as was Dean Heller holding his seat.

New Hampshire - Just a disastrous year for the Republicans. Obama won easily, as did Governor John Lynch and Jeanne Shaheen (over Senator John Sununu). Carol Shea-Porter won again, despite almost universal agreement that Republican Jeb Bradley is a better candidate.

New Jersey - No surprises, except that Old Man Lautenberg nearly matched Obama. Democrat Jon Adler picking up the open NJ-3 seat was expected. In a year like 2008, Republican Leonard Lance's victory over Democrat Linda "Big Spender" Stender in the open NJ-7 seat is a noteworthy achievement.

New Mexico - Immigration hawks should pay attention. Not only did John McCain get his clock cleaned here (by a greater margin than McCain won Texas), but Democrat Tom Udall easily won the Senate seat and the GOP got destroyed in all three open House seats, two of which they held and one of them (NM-2) was supposed to be a Republican target. Total wipeout.

New York - Republicans here are pathetic. In NY-13, Republican Robert Straniere went down in flames to lose Vito Fossella's seat, as predicted. Dan Maffei easily took NY-25 for the Dems. Republican Randy Kuhl also lost his seat to a guy he beat in 2006. Thus, the GOP currently holds three of New York's 29 House seats. GOP good news this year: they easily held Tom Reynold's seat, they almost beat Michael Arcuri in NY-24, and aided by ethical problems, Charles Rangel dipped to 88% this year.

North Carolina - A very impressive win (I'm going to call it for Obama). Obama won huge margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. That was expected, but the financial services meltdown probably gave him more votes in Charlotte. McCain couldn't match Bush's numbers in the rest of North Carolina. North Carolina has always been a mostly Republican state in White House races that go Democratic in a blowout. It may be less Republican than it used to be, but this is still basically true. Liddy Dole ran a terrible campaign, and her stink probably hurt McCain. It was pretty obvious the Democratic movement in North Carolina would knock off Robin Hayes in NC-8, and so it did.

North Dakota - This wasn't as close as advertised. Honestly, I thought John Hoeven would do better than the 74% he got for Governor.

Ohio - It is still two points more Republican than the nation, and will remain a necessary ingredient to any White House victory for the GOP. In the House, Steve Chabot finally fell victim to the large amounts of minorities in his district (OH-1). Jean Schmidt pulled out another unimpressive victory in heavily Republican OH-2. John Boccieri was expected to pick up OH-16 for the Dems. I am surprised Republican Steve Stivers held onto OH-15 and I am shocked he won by five points.

Oklahoma - Hope, no. Inhofe, yes.

Oregon - This is no longer a state the GOP has a chance to win in a Presidential race. Right now, Democrat Jeff Merkley leads GOP Sen. Gordon Smith by about 4,000 votes, but with Oregon's brilliant mail balloting only 78% of precincts are in. If Merkley wins (and I think he will), it will be solely due to the big Democratic climate. The Dems held OR-5 easily.

Pennsylvania - McCain's big push here got him nowhere, which certainly didn't surprise me. The GOP just didn't do all that well in Western Pennsylvania. Kathy Dahlkemper knocked off Phil English in PA-3, which should provide a warning signal to incumbents who don't prepare for reelection. Jim Gerlach held PA-6 by closer than expected and might get a better opponent next time. Democrat Paul Kanjorski defied the polls by holding off anti- immigration mouthpiece Lou Barletta in PA-11.

Rhode Island - Obama won by 29 points, which was worse than Jack Reed and every other Democrat on the ballot.

South Carolina - Lindsey Graham ran better than John McCain, which was a tad surprising, though Graham's opponent was a borderline lunatic. Joe Wilson's 54% in SC-2 may get him a better opponent.

South Dakota - McCain, Johnson, Herseth Sandlin...ticket splitting in the Dakotas is not a new phenomenon.

Tennessee - Easy wins for McCain and Lamar Alexander, and no excitement at all.

Texas - John Cornyn's victory perfectly matched McCain's in a state that specializes in straight ticket voting. Chet Edwards only got 53% in TX-17, which suggests the conservative Democrat might have trouble in an actual non-Democratic year. Then again, that has been said before about him. Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson predictably lost TX-22 with an actual person opposing him on the ballot.

Utah - Obama did well to get 34%. Democrat Bob Springmeyer pulled 20% in the gubernatorial race.

Vermont - Easy wins for Obama and GOP Governor Jim Douglas.

Virginia - This is now the ultimate swing state, basically right at the national average. I'm not too surprised Obama won it, but I am surprised he won it by five. McCain just didn't pull the big margins he needed outside of Northern Virginia, which made Obama's victory look more like the broad based Warner/Kaine coalition than the narrow Jim Webb win. Mark Warner's huge win was no shock. Thelma Drake going down in VA-2 was a mild surprise, and McCain's inability to pull the margins he needed outside of Northern Virginia cost her big time. Right now, Virgil Goode appears to have lost VA-5 by 80 votes. There will obviously be a recount. The only surprise in VA-11 was that Gerry Connolly did not win by more.

Washington - No recount this time for Governor Christine Gregoire. The big Obama win helped her. Dave Reichert leads Darcy Burner in House 8 by 618 votes, but only 49% of precincts have reported (Washington and Oregon, please adopt better systems! Please!!!)

West Virginia - We can now say West Virginia realigned in 2000 for White House races, as McCain won easily, as did local Democrats Jay Rockefeller and Joe Manchin.

Wisconsin - The easy win for Obama was expected. Democrat Steve Kagen in WI-8 should hope he never faces a big Republican year.

Wyoming - Obvious easy wins for McCain and Senators Enzi and Barrasso. Republicans have to be happy with the relatively easy win for Cynthia Lummis in the House race.