State of the Day - Virginia

The Old Dominion has changed as much as any state in recent years. It hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Even so, it has never been the most conservative of states in the Old Confederacy. Over the past decade, Northern Virginia has filled rapidly with government employees and high income private sector workers. This population has made Northern Virginia quite Democratic. Northern Virginia is balanced by the rest of the state, which tends to be Republican.

Virginia's Democrats bottomed out in 1999-2000, when they lost the state legislature and Republican George Allen knocked off Democratic Senator Charles Robb. However, since then, the Democrats have made quite a comeback. It began in 2001 with Mark Warner winning the Governor's Mansion. Taking advantage of unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore, Warner assiduously courted rural Virginia and won a rather broad based, if not sweeping victory. As Governor, Warner completely divided Virginia Republicans over a tax reform plan, creating a breach between conservatives and moderates that exists to this day. That division helped Tim Kaine essentially duplicate Warner’s victory in 2005 and Democrats capture the State Senate in 2007.

Jim Webb did not duplicate the Warner/Kaine victory. Taking advantage of the new demographics, a big Democratic year, and a series of awful mistakes by George Allen, he just barely eeked out a win with minimal support outside of Northern Virginia. If Barack Obama is to win Virginia in 2008, he will probably need to duplicate Webb's huge margins in Northern Virginia because he will probably run behind Warner/Kaine in the rest of the state.

Virginia is one of the closest states in this year's Presidential contest. While many have been predicting that Virginia could become more Democratic with time, few expected it would be in play this year. Just four years ago, George W. Bush won a ten point victory in the state. However, Democrats have registered tons of new voters and the President's lack of popularity certainly hurt McCain's chances. Now, Obama leads in several public polls and it seems like Obama has a very good chance of winning the state next Tuesday.

President – 13 Electoral Votes

1996: Bob Dole (R) 47%, Pres. Bill Clinton (D) 45%
2000: George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 44%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%

No Democrat has carried Virginia since 1964, but that overstates how Republican the state has been. Jim Webb proved that a Democrat can win a statewide race in Virginia without getting significant support outside of the Democratic base. It seems that Sen. Barack Obama may be close to replicating that feat, with the help of an enthusiastic base of African-American supporters and strong support in Northern Virginia.

Even so, Virginia will still be close. Right now, polls indicate that Obama will win Virginia by a fairly comfortable margin, but I have a hunch it could be a bit closer. As you will see below, AR predicts that Obama will win by a six point margin.

Prediction: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 47%

Governor – Tim Kaine (D)

1997: Jim Gilmore (R) 56%, Don Beyer (D) 43%
2001: Mark Warner (D) 52%, Mark Earley (R) 47%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) 52%, Jerry Kilgore (R) 46%

Governor Kaine cannot run for reelection, as Virginia is the last state where Governors cannot succeed themselves. Republicans have apparently reached an agreement to have a unified party. Attorney General Bob McDonnell will run, while Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling will run for reelection. Should Kaine vacate the office early (perhaps for a Cabinet post), then Bolling will run and McDonnell will wait for 2013. Democrats look to have a primary between conservative State Senator Creigh Deeds and more liberal State Delegate Brian Moran.

Republicans seem to have an edge here, with an apparently unified party and a nominee who has won statewide. Kaine is only modestly popular, so he cannot anoint his successor with his touch. It should be a good race, but the GOP probably starts with an edge, especially since the state probably does still tilt a bit Republican. Then again, if the Democratic candidate can build off Obama's progress in the state, it very well could be a fairly even playing field.

Senior Senator – John Warner (R)

1990: Sen. John Warner (R) unopposed
1996: Sen. John Warner (R) 52%, Mark Warner (D) 47%
2002: Sen. John Warner (R) unopposed

Senator John Warner is retiring - both sides of the aisle concede that will leave a big hole in the Senate. The race to replace him is pretty simple. Both Democrat Mark Warner (no relation) and Republican Jim Gilmore are former Governors. Warner left office very popular, and Gilmore left very unpopular. Add in that the fact that moderate Republicans loathe Gilmore and almost denied him the nomination, Gilmore's ridiculous run for the White House, pathetic fundraising, and revelations about false information on a disclosure form concerning his ties to contractors accused of wrongdoing, and this is going to be a wipe out.

Prediction: Warner (D) 64%, Gilmore (R) 35%

Junior Senator – Jim Webb (D)

1994: Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 46%, Oliver North (R) 43%
2000: George Allen (R) 52%, Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 48%
2006: Jim Webb (D) 50%, Sen. George Allen (R) 49%

Senator Webb may have one advantage when he runs for reelection in 2012. If the present demographic trends continue, Virginia may be more legitimately a Democratic state. At the same time, Webb should have a major challenge. There is a serious chance liberals will be tired of Webb by 2012, given his social conservatism and interesting ideas on foreign policy. He also seems to be a somewhat volatile figure, prone to off the cuff remarks and bad ideas like confronting the President at a White House reception. He may be a slight favorite as of now, but he will almost certainly face a major challenge.

House 1 – Rob Wittman (R)

2002: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) 63%, Shawn O’Donnell (D) 35%
2007 special: Rob Wittman (R) 61%, Philip Forgit (D) 37%

Pretty much everything would need to go right for Democrats to win this seat. Despite Democratic advantages this yer, Democratic nominee Keith Hummel still has no chance.

House 2 – Thelma Drake (R)

2002: Rep. Ed Schrock (R) unopposed
2004: Thelma Drake (R) 55%, David Ashe (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 51%, Phil Kellam (D) 48%

Drake has yet to master this Republican leaning Norfolk/Virginia Beach based district. She has serious opposition again from Democrat Glenn Nye. Drake remains favored for a few basic reasons.

First, she survived a terrible Republican year against strong opposition in 2006. Drake has raised two times as much money as Nye, Drake has another term of incumbency working for her, and John McCain should do well in this district with a large veteran population. A few polls have shown Nye within striking distance, but Drake has led all of them by at least five points. It is hard to see how Nye is going to do in 2008 what Kellam could not do in 2006.

House 3 – Bobby Scott (D)

2002: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) 69%, Winsome Sears (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed

This black majority district poses no threat to Democrats, and indeed, Scott is unopposed.

House 4 – Randy Forbes (R)

2002: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) 64%, Jonathan Menefee (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) unopposed

Democrat Andrea Miller only raised $45,193 for this race. She has too many obstacles to seriously challenge Forbes in this Republican leaning seat.

House 5 – Virgil Goode (R)

2002: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 63%, Meredith Richards (D) 36%
2004: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 64%, Al Weed (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 59%, Al Weed (D) 40%

This is a Republican leaning Southern Virginia seat, which includes Charlottesville, Bedford, South Boston, Martinsville, and Danville. Democrats had been hopeful that Democrat Tom Perriello, a fairly strong recruit, would give Goode serious competition.

Even though Perriello marginally outraised Goode, it looks like Goode has been able to solidfy his standing within the district. While Mark Warner and Tim Kaine saw success in this district, all recent polls indicate that Goode is in good standing (no pun intended). A recent Democratic poll showed Goode ahead by eight points and near 50%. When your own party's polls show you down by a significant margin, you know you have no chance.

House 6 – Bob Goodlatte (R)

2002: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed

Democrat Sam Rasoul has no chance in this heavily Republican district.

House 7 – Eric Cantor (R)

2002: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 69%, Ben Jones (D) 30%
2004: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 64%, James Nachman (D) 34%

Cantor will cruise against Democrat Anita Hartke in this overwhelmingly Republican district. Cantor is a rising star in the Republican Party. While talk of him as McCain's running mate may have been a bit much, expect to hear more from Cantor in the future.

House 8 – Jim Moran (D)

2002: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 60%, Scott Tate (R) 37%
2004: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 60%, Lisa Marie Cheney (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 66%, Tom O’Donoghue (R) 31%

This has seat has become out of reach to Republicans, especially since Moran has learned to avoid controversy. He is safe against Republican Mark Ellmore, who barely raised any money for this race.

House 9 – Rick Boucher (D)

2002: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 66%, Jay Katzen (R) 34%
2004: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 59%, Kevin Triplett (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 68%, Charles Carrico (R) 32%

This is a tough district for Democrats, but Boucher has entrenched himself locally. Even so, Republicans should never fail to run a candidate in a district that voted 59% for George W. Bush in 2004. Boucher is unopposed.

House 10 – Frank Wolf (R)

2002: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 72%, John Stevens (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 64%, James Socas (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 57%, Judy Feder (D) 41%

Judy Feder is trying again. She is a serious candidate who has actually raised slightly more money than Wolf. Unfortunately for her, this includes Winchester, Manassas, and fast growing Loudoun County, leans Republican.

Feder is a strong and credible challenger, but she is unlikely to pull this one off. Wolf is pretty moderate and locally popular. Feder did not come close in the hugely Democratic year of 2006. The area might have become more Democratic, but not sixteen points more Democratic.

Last week, Wolf faced controversy when You Tube video popped up showing that he witnessed an incident in which Wolf staffers allegedly beat a Judy Feder campaign worker. Democrats sought to make this Wolf's "macaca" moment, but Wolf did issue an apology. The DCCC is also targeting Wolf and one poll showed her five points behind, but this one is probably a stretch. Wolf is probably safe.

House 11 – Tom Davis (R)

2002: Rep. Tom Davis (R) unopposed
2004: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 60%, Ken Longmyer (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 55%, Andrew Hurst (R) 44%

Davis is retiring from this Fairfax based swing district that is rapidly becoming more Democratic, so much so that Davis’s wife lost her state Senate seat in 2007. Democrats nominated Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly. Republicans went with Keith Fimian.

Fimian has one thing going for him . . . money, namely his own. Other than that, Connolly has the edge. He is well known, should benefit from Obama's margin in the distrcit, and the district is trending his way. Connolly will pick up this seat for the Democrats.

House Predictions: 7 Republicans, 4 Democrats…+1 DEMOCRATS