State of the Race

Tomorrow is Election Day and this will be our final State of the Race column for the 2008 elections. However, we will be providing last minute predictions tomorrow morning or early afternoon. On Election Day (especially at night), we will provide coverage of many close House races and the election in general.

All of our regular features will be continuing well past November 4. We will restart our State of the Day columns soon with an eye toward the 2009 and 2010 contests and State of the Race will remain a weekly feature. Stick with us - this long election may be over, but Beyond The Polls is just getting started.

NOTE: The handicapping for this column is done by AR and represents his projections, though the write-ups are authored by yours truly.

President

This week, Senator Barack Obama maintained his healthy lead over Sen. John McCain. The national tracking polls have been all over the place, with some tightening and others expanding. Right now, we project that Obama will win anywhere from 306 to 380 Electoral Votes. This week's projection is very similar to last week's, though we have moved Indiana back into McCain's column.

Once again, these projections probably represent the higher end of the spectrum for Obama when it comes to Electoral Votes. AR's projection gives Obama the benefit of the doubt in almost every close state except for Indiana and North Dakota. It's very possible (and in my mind, even likely) that McCain will squeak out victories in Missouri and North Carolina. Nevada is looking increasingly tough for McCain, but it is notoriously a hard state to poll.

While the Obama campaign is focusing on our Tier II/Obama states, we don't think Obama will win in Arizona, Georgia or Montana. Democrats are jazzed by early voting numbers in Georgia (showing high African-American turnout), but no public poll has ever shown Obama ahead there. The same can be said for Arizona. McCain seems to have boosted his numbers in Montana, with multiple polls giving him a lead there this week (except for a PPP poll today giving Obama a 1 point lead).

Pennsylvania has been moved up to Tier III. While Obama has led most recent polls by double digits, two new Pennsylvania polls released Saturday suggested that it was a 4-5 point race. McCain is making a huge push for the state and his "Joe The Plumber" arguments play fairly well there. Could McCain pull off an upset? It's possible, but the odds are definitely stacked against him.

*NOTE: If state appears in bold, that means we expect it to switch from its 2004 result. For example, Florida is in bold because it was a red state in 2004 and we project that it would "turn blue" if the election were held today.

Tier I (Tossup)

Obama (58)
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina

McCain
Indiana
North Dakota

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (42)
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia

McCain (28)
Arizona
Georgia
Montana

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (30)
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Pennsylvania

McCain (5)
West Virginia

Tier IV

Obama (234)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

McCain (127)
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Nebraska
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Current Outlook
Electoral Count
Obama - 364(pickup CO, FL, IA, MO, NC, NM, NV, OH, VA)
McCain - 174

Popular Vote
Obama 52.6%
McCain 47.1%

Governors

There is no change in the gubernatorial races. We think that the GOP will narrowly hang onto the governor's mansion in North Carolina and that Christine Gregoire will be re-elected in Washington state.

Tier I

Republican (1)
North Carolina (Michael Easley retiring)

Tier II

Democrat (1)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Tier III

Tier IV

Democrat (5)
Delaware (Ruth Ann Minner retiring)
Missouri (Matt Blunt retiring)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Republican (4)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels)
North Dakota (John Hoeven)
Utah (Jon Huntsman)
Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Current Outlook
Democrats - 28
Republicans - 22

Senate

In addition to the Presidential race, much attention has been focused on the Democrats' attempts to secure a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the Senate (in reality, they probably don't even need 60 seats on most issues). While the Republicans received a large blow this week with Ted Stevens' conviction, it has become increasingly unlikely that Democrats will net enough seats to reach 60.

Several Republican incumbents remain in danger. With Ted Stevens on his way to jail, Alaska will find itself with a Democratic Senator for the next six years. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman seems to have picked up a little ground. Coleman responded strongly to one of Al Franken's ads by suing him for libel. However, at best, Minnnesota is a toss up. Kay Hagen also filed suit against Dole in North Carolina - Dole is running an ad calling Hagen "Godless". Dole's ad wreaks of desperation and we doubt she can win at this point. In Oregon, Gordon Smith's chances of retaining his seat are fading.

Even if the Democrats sweep the three seats mentioned above, they still need to win either Georgia, Kentucky or Mississippi to have a 60 seat majority. The Chambliss-Martin race is surely closer than Republicans had hoped, but Chambliss has still led every poll and he seems to have rebounded a bit in recent days. If Chambliss or Martin win a plurality with less than 50% (which is very possible), there will be a runoff in December. In our opinion, a runoff favors Chambliss because African-American turnout would almost surely be lower in December than it will be next Tuesday.

Like Chambliss, Mitch McConnell would probably feel more comfortable with a bigger lead, but he has consistently led in the polls (most Republican Senate candidates would love to be able to say the same thing this year). A few polls do show McConnell slightly under 50%, but with McCain winning Kentucky by a large margin, McConnell will probably be fine. In Mississipi, Roger Wicker had even better news this week - two polls showing him ahead of former Gov. Musgrove by double digits.

We project that the Democrats' majority in the Senate will fall in the narrow range of 58 or 59 seats.

NOTE: If a seat is in bold, we expect it to switch parties.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Republican (1)
Minnesota

Tier II (Leaning)

Democratic (2)
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)
Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Republican (2)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

Tier III (Likely)

NONE

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (16)
Alaska (Ted Stevens)
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Colorado (Wayne Allard retiring)
Delaware (Joseph Biden)
Illinois (Richard Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)
New Hampshire (John Sununu)
New Mexico (Pete Domenici retiring)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
Virginia (John Warner retiring)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican (13)
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Idaho (Larry Craig retiring)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Maine (Susan Collins)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Nebraska (Chuck Hagel retiring)
Oklahoma (James Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)
Texas (John Cornyn)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

Current Outlook
Range: D+6 - D+7
Democrats - 58 (pick up AK, CO, MN, NH, NM, NC, OR and VA)
Republicans - 42

House

The House landscape is pretty bleak for the Republicans. We think that Democrats are likely to net 21 seats (Democrats 257, Republicans 178), though it could range anywhere from a 12 seat gain to a 33 seat gain. In this range, a higher gain is definitely more probably than a smaller one. For example, Democrats could theoretically win in almost all of the 8 Tier I seats we currently award to the Republicans and some Tier II/Republicans could be in trouble as well, such as the Diaz-Balart brothers. We will be closely following these races tomorrow night, as they will truly indicate whether tomorrow night is bad for the GOP or totally awful.

NOTE: If a seat is in bold, we expect it to switch parties.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (12)
AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring)
CT-4 (Christopher Shays)
ID-1 (Bill Sali)
LA-4 (Jim McCrery retiring)
LA-6 (Don Cazayoux)
MN-3 (Jim Ramstad retiring)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NV-3 (Jon Porter)
NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NJ-3 (Jim Saxton retiring)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce retiring)
PA-3 (Phil English)

Republican (9)
AL-2 (Terry Everett retiring)
CA-4 (John Doolittle retiring)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk)
MD-1 (Wayne Gilchrest retiring)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
NJ-7 (Michael Ferguson retiring)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (5)
CO-4 (Marilyn Musgrave)
KS-2 (Nancy Boyda)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl)
NC-8 (Robin Hayes)
OH-15 (Deborah Pryce retiring)

Republican (8)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
KY-2 (Ron Lewis retiring)
MO-9 (Kenny Hulshof retiring)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NY-26 (Tom Reynolds retiring)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson)
VA-2 (Thelma Drake)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (5)
AK-AL (Don Young)
FL-8 (Ric Keller)
GA-8 (Jim Marshall)
MI-9 (Joe Knollenberg)
NM-1 (Heather Wilson retiring)

Republican (1)

WY-AL (Barbara Cubin retiring)

Tier IV (Probably Safe)

Democrat (36)

AZ-1 (Rick Renzi retiring)
AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
GA-13 (David Scott)
IL-8 (Melissa Bean)
IL-11 (Jerry Weller retiring)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth)
IN-9 (Baron Hill)
KS-3 (Dennis Moore)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-1 (Tom Allen retiring)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MS-1 (Travis Childers)
NH-2 (Paul Hodes)
NY-13 (Vito Fossella retiring)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
NY-25 (James Walsh retiring)
OH-16 (Ralph Regula retiring)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
OR-5 (Darlene Hooley retiring)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-8 (Patrick Murphy)
PA-10 (Christopher Carney)
PA-12 (John Murtha)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Tom Davis retiring)
WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (36)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
AZ-3 (John Shadegg)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-15 (Dave Weldon)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-18 (Ray LaHood retiring)
IN-3 (Mark Souder)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
NV-2 (Dean Heller)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-7 (Dave Hobson retiring)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Henry Brown)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
VA-5 (Virgil Goode)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)

Tier V (Totally Safe)

Democrat (199)
Republican (122)

Current Outlook
Democrats - 257 (pick up AK-AL, AZ-1, CO-4, CT-4, ID-1, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, LA-4, MI-9, MN-3, MN-6, NM-1, NM-2, NC-8, NJ-3, NV-3, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, VA-11).
Republicans - 178 (pick up FL-16, PA-11, TX-22).

UPDATE (Tuesday afternoon): AR's final changes - CA-4 to Toss Up, D. North Carolina - Perdue wins governor's race. McCain wins Missouri.