PA Senate: Specter Says He Is Running in 2010

Speculation has swirled around whether Republican Sen. Arlen Specter would run for re-election in 2010, especially since Specter will be 80 years old in 2010 and has battled cancer during his current term. Specter gave a definitive answer this weekend, telling CNN's Wolf Blitzer "Wolf, I don't know what anyone else is doing, but I know what one man is doing -- Arlen Specter is running."

Much discussion has centered around whether MSNBC host Chris Matthews host will return to Pennsylvania to mount a challenge against Specter. Matthews' intentions remain unclear, but I am highly doubtful that Matthews would be a particularly strong candidate. Matthews' loud and abrasive style may work well on Hardball, but probably would not translate well to a campaign for U.S. Senate. Additionally, in Matthews' several years as a broadcaster, he's almost certainly said several stupid things that can be used against him.

Additionally, Arlen Specter remains popular in his home state and Matthews (or any Democrat, for that matter) would have difficulty defeating him. While Specter strongly supported President Bush's Supreme Court nominees, Specter is anything but a staunch conservative. Specter's moderate tendencies make him the type of Republican that can win in Pennsylvania.

Specter's biggest problem may come from a conservative challenge on the right. In 2004, Rep. Pat Toomey lost to Specter in the Republican primary by only 2%. Specter will surely face a primary challenge, but it is uncertain whether he will face a high profile candidate like Toomey. As long as Specter hangs on in the primary, he is a favorite to retain his seat. If Specter loses to a more conservative Republican, then the seat would become a great pickup opportunity for the Democrats.