State of the Day - Arizona

The Grand Canyon State has historically been one of the more Republican states. It produced Barry Goldwater and, except for Bill Clinton, has voted Republican for President. Things may be changing, however. The state voted Republican for President again, but that had more to do with the candidacy of Arizonan John McCain than anything else. Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano has been extremely popular, while Republican anti-immigration rhetoric has served them very badly here. That issue gave the Democrats two House seats in 2006 (they picked up another seat in 2008), and risks alienating the rapidly growing Hispanic population which went heavily Democratic nationally in 2008.

Democrats will be in strong position to continue their good work in 2010. Napolitano is leaving but Democrats have multiple potentially strong candidates to replace her. McCain should be safe for another term in the Senate, but Democrats look in good shape to keep the three House seats they have picked up over the past two cycles. Democrats have made huge strides in the West over the past four years, and they can make big strides in Arizona, too.


President – 10 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 45%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 55%, John Kerry (D) 44%
2008: John McCain (R) 54%, Barack Obama (D) 45%

Obama spent some money here the last two weeks of the campaign, but otherwise he didn’t really compete in John McCain’s home state. Obama won the reservation counties and the heavily Hispanic border area, but lost everything else. Interestingly, McCain won 48% of under 30 voters, much better than nationally.

McCain’s familiarity here clearly helped him, but it almost certainly won’t help the Republican nominee in 2012. The state still leans Republican, but not by the amount McCain won it by. It’s hard to see any Republican winning in 2012 without Arizona, but this is easily Obama’s best chance to pick up a McCain state.

Governor – Janet Napolitano (D)

1998: Gov. Jane Hull (R) 61%, Paul Johnson (D) 36%
2002: Janet Napolitano (D) 46%, Matt Salmon (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) 63%, Len Munsil (R) 35%

The term limited Napolitano will leave office next month to become Secretary of Homeland Security, assuming she wins confirmation as expected. Arizona has no Lieutenant Governor (perhaps it should get one, as three governors in the past twenty years have failed to finish their terms), so the Governor’s Mansion falls to Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican. Practically, this will help her as it will likely clear the primary field and allow her to establish herself in advance of the election.

Brewer seems likely to face a stiff challenge in the general election from either Attorney General Terry Goddard or Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon. Goddard has won statewide, while Gordon has positive name recognition in the state’s largest media market. At this point, the race would seem to lean Republican, based on Brewer’s incumbency and the probability of the political climate bouncing back toward Republicans at least somewhat. However, all is dependent on Brewer’s job performance. If she maintains the 55% approval ratings Napolitano did, she’ll be fine.

Senior Senator – John McCain (R)

1992: Sen. John McCain (R) 56%, Claire Sargent (D) 32%
1998: Sen. John McCain (R) 69%, Ed Ranger (D) 27%
2004: Sen. John McCain (R) 77%, Stuart Starky (D) 21%

McCain has already announced plans to run again. Governor Janet Napolitano was clearly the strongest candidate against him, but her appointment as Secretary of Homeland Security almost certainly takes her out of the race. McCain isn’t as strong as he was in 2004, when he was the Democratic Party’s favorite Republican. However, he is in strong enough shape that it does not seem likely he will attract a serious challenger. Even if he does, I don’t think McCain is beatable barring unforeseen circumstances.

Junior Senator – Jon Kyl (R)

1994: Jon Kyl (R) 54%, Sam Coppersmith (D) 40%
2000: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) unopposed
2006: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) 53%, Jim Pederson (D) 43%

Kyl impressed by getting an easy win over stiff competition in horrible circumstances in 2006. Kyl cannot be totally safe given Arizona’s Democratic trend, but he seems a likely winner in 2012.

House 1 – Rick Renzi (R)

2004: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) 59%, Paul Babbit (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) 52%, Ellen Simon (D) 43%
2008: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 56%, Sydney Hay (R) 40%

Renzi’s ethical problems forced this Flagstaff/Prescott/Northeast Arizona swing seat to open up in 2008, and like generally happened in open swing seats the past two cycles, the Democrats picked it up easily. Even in the Democratic year of 2008, Ann Kirkpatrick’s easy win was impressive in a district designed to be competitive. She will almost certainly get a tough challenge in 2010, especially if Barack Obama and the Democrats struggle. However, a notable Democratic trend in this district and Kirkpatrick’s demonstrated strength keep this seat leaning Democratic.

House 2 – Trent Franks (R)

2004: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 59%, Randy Camacho (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 59%, John Thrasher (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 60%, John Thrasher (D) 37%

This Sun City based district is a mostly Republican seat. As Franks has easily survived the last two cycles, it is hard to see him being in much danger. He is probably set for life.

House 3 – John Shadegg (R)

2004: Rep. John Shadegg (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Shadegg (R) 59%, Herb Paine (D) 38%
2008: Rep. John Shadegg (R) 54%, Bob Lord (D) 42%

Shadegg had originally retired from this North Phoenix seat, but decided to run again. Bob Lord provided stiff opposition, but came nowhere close to Shadegg in this Republican leaning seat. Shadegg may continue to see competition given the Democratic trend in the suburbs, but the seat will continue to lean his way as long as he holds it.

House 4 – Ed Pastor (D)

2004: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 70%, Don Karg (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 73%, Don Karg (R) 24%
2008: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 72%, Don Karg (R) 22%

This is an utterly safe Democratic district. Pastor has no worries.

House 5 – Harry Mitchell (D)

2004: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) 59%, Elizabeth Rogers (D) 38%
2006: Harry Mitchell (D) 50%, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) 46%
2008: Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 53%, David Schweikert (R) 44%

This Scottsdale/Tempe seat leans Republican, but Mitchell took advantage of a controversial incumbent to pick the seat off in 2006. He faced a decent, but hardly sterling challenge in 2008. This is the sort of seat where Democrats have done very well in the past two cycles, but in which continued success is hardly guaranteed. If I were the NRCC, I would target this seat for 2010. With a strong Republican in a year more conducive to Republicans, this is a total tossup, if not a slight Republican advantage. This is district to watch in determining whether the Republicans are serious about making major House gains in 2010.

House 6 – Jeff Flake (R)

2004: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) 63%, Rebecca Schneider (D) 35%

Flake is not a standard issue Republican, often angering GOP leadership by opposing any sort of spending. Nevertheless, this is a safe Republican seat and Flake looks to keep on being, well, a sort of flake (albeit a principled one).

House 7 – Raul Grijalva (D)

2004: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 62%, Joseph Sweeney (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 61%, Ron Drake (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 63%, Joseph Sweeney (R) 33%

This district is so Democratic that Grijalva’s margins of victory aren’t really very impressive. He may attract a competent opponent, but he’s not going to lose.

House 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) 60%, Eva Bacal (D) 36%
2006: Gabrielle Giffords (D) 54%, Randy Graf (R) 42%
2008: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) 55%, Tim Bee (R) 43%

Giffords is a rising star and future statewide candidate. She won this Tuscon based seat against a loony opponent in 2006, but held it impressively against a very strong opponent in 2008. She certainly not home free, especially if the environment moves back in favor of the Republicans, but she has a definite edge here.