State of the Day - Arkansas

The Natural State has developed a marked dichotomy. It is a quite conservative state, especially socially, and this is reflected in the fact that Arkansas has become a reliably Republican state in Presidential elections. In fact, it was one of the few states that gave John McCain a bigger margin of victory than it ever gave George W. Bush. Locally, however, the partisan balance is a different story. Arkansas Democrats tend to be much more conservative than their national counterparts. These conservative Democrats personified in Governor Mike Beebe and the state’s Congressional delegation, dominate Arkansas politics on all levels. The Republican Party, aside from some strength in Northwest Arkansas, is totally disorganized and demoralized. This has led to some embarrassingly poor performances in a state that should be friendly to the GOP.

Not much looks to change in the near future. Governor Beebe and Senator Blanche Lincoln look to coast to reelection. The hapless Republicans have shown no evidence they can compete for any of the three Democratic House seats or cut into the Democrats’ 3 to 1 advantage in the State Legislature. The status quo looks to continue to reign in Arkansas.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%
2008: John McCain (R) 59%, Barack Obama (D) 39%

Other than going solidly for native son Bill Clinton twice, Arkansas has been a reliably Republican state since 1980. It has gotten more Republican this decade, going from a target state in 2000 to one of McCain’s best states in 2008. It really has nothing to recommend it to Obama. It has the lowest black percentage of any Southern state and a relatively old and uneducated population. Arkansas has enough of a Democratic base to where I won’t discount Obama’s 2012 chances entirely, but if the Republican nominee doesn’t win this state then he’ll be headed for a historic wipeout.

Governor – Mike Beebe (D)

1998: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 60%, Bill Bristow (D) 39%
2002: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 53%, Jimmie Lou Fisher (D) 47%
2006: Mike Beebe (D) 56%, Asa Hutchinson (R) 41%

Beebe has a 68% approval rating and Arkansas Republicans have neither a credible candidate nor any demonstrated competence. Beebe should win another term easily.

Senior Senator – Blanche Lincoln (D)

1992: Sen. Dale Bumpers (D) 60%, Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
1998: Blanche Lincoln (D) 55%, Fay Boozman (R) 42%
2004: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 56%, Jim Holt (R) 44%

If I just looked at Lincoln’s previous numbers and McCain’s big win here, I’d say this was a tossup and a real pickup chance for Republicans. However, the incompetent Arkansas Republicans don’t appear to have any halfway presentable candidate. Mike Huckabee could probably beat her, but he looks like he is running for President instead. The folksy, conservative Lincoln will win again unless another Republican star emerges.

Junior Senator – Mark Pryor (D)

1996: Tim Hutchinson (R) 53%, Winston Bryant (D) 47%
2002: Mark Pryor (D) 54%, Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%
2008: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) unopposed

I know the conservative Pryor, blessed with a great Arkansas name, would be tough to beat, but Republicans should be ashamed for not nominating anybody. 2014 is a long way off, but unless the Arkansas Republicans show a pulse Pryor should at least match his father’s three terms in the Senate.

House 1 – Marion Berry (D)

2004: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 67%, Vernon Humphrey (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 69%, Mickey Stumbaugh (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Marion Berry (D) unopposed

In any other state, this would be a swing district. In Arkansas, Republicans are required by law to be inert, so it is safely Democratic. Berry is entrenched in this Jonesboro based seat.

House 2 – Vic Snyder (D)

2004: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 58%, Marvin Parks (R) 42%
2006: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 61%, Andy Mayberry (R) 39%
2008: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) unopposed

Snyder, like the rest of Arkansas’s Democratic Congressional delegation, has a good profile for this conservative state. Between that and a lack of decent Republican challengers, Snyder is perpetually safe in this Little Rock centered district.

House 3 – John Boozman (R)

2004: Rep. John Boozman (R) 59%, Janice Judy (D) 38%
2006: Rep. John Boozman (R) 62%, Woodrow Anderson (D) 38%
2008: Rep. John Boozman (R) unopposed

This district is so Republican not even Arkansas Republicans can lose it.

House 4 – Mike Ross (D)

2004: Rep. Mike Ross (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mike Ross (D) 75%, Joe Ross (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Mike Ross (D) unopposed

Ross is your typical successful Arkansas Democrat. By definition, this means Republicans don’t bother making his life difficult. The Hot Springs/Southern Arkansas looks like it can go either way on paper, but you’ve probably picked on the theme that “on paper” doesn’t amount to hog droppings in Arkansas.