State of the Day - California

The Golden State leads the nation in population, and in many ways, problems of governance. Yet, outside of the 2003 recall spectacle, politics is not the spectator sport and does not command the same passion and attention as in other states. Thus, statewide campaigns are characterized by their enormous cost, exacerbated by the lack of grassroots or free media interest. The state’s Congressional seats are quite gerrymandered and very few are legitimately competitive.

In general, the coastal part of the state, which includes the major metropolitan areas, is liberal and votes Democratic. The interior part of the state can be quite conservative and generally votes Republican. In recent years, the state has entered into a stable equilibrium in which it has a serious Democratic lean, but not as much as some other states. Republicans have successes from time to time, but they tend to be minor and short lived. The most prominent Republican of the decade, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is quite liberal for a Republican and quite unpopular by any standard.

2010 looks to give California more of the same. Senator Barbara Boxer, who would have been much too liberal for the state even twenty years ago, should cruise to reelection. Democrats should also take back the Governor’s Mansion. At this point, the idea of a major Republican surge is nothing more than “California Dreamin’”.


President – 55 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 53%, George Bush (R) 42%
2004: John Kerry (D) 54%, Pres. George Bush (R) 44%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 61%, John McCain (R) 37%

Republicans dream of taking California, as it would essentially ensure a Republican victory. However, the state is becoming more and more hostile to GOP presidential candidates. It is not the most Democratic state in the country, and it isn’t hard to envision a scenario the mirror image of 2008, where a Republican winning a solid victory edges out a win in California. However, if California is even close that means the Republican already won. Combined with the ridiculous cost of competing in California, look for the Republicans to concede California for the immediate future.

Governor – Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

1998: Gray Davis (D) 58%, Dan Lungren (R) 38%
2002: Gov. Gray Davis (D) 47%, Bill Simon (R) 42%
2003 special: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49%, Cruz Bustamante (D) 34%
2006: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 56%, Phil Angelides (D) 39%

Schwarzenegger cannot run for a second full term, which is academic anyway given his 32% approval ratings. As of now, it appears as if Tom Campbell and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner will run for the Republican nomination. Poizner has won statewide office while Campbell is a multiple time loser in that regard. More candidates may emerge, but as of now, Poizner may be the better bet.

Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi has already announced his candidacy. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Representative Loretta Sanchez are also expected to seek the Democratic nomination. If Newsom were to be the nominee, his front and center position in the gay marriage battle may hurt him. In general, the nature of California makes the gubernatorial race lean toward the Democrats in any event.

Senior Senator – Dianne Feinstein (D)

1994: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 47%, Michael Huffington (R) 45%
2000: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 56%, Tom Campbell (R) 37%
2006: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 59%, Dick Mountjoy (R) 36%

Feinstein has attracted serious challengers in the past, but Republicans seem to have finally given up. It’s hard to blame them. Even if a challenger could scrounge up enough money to give her a real run for it, California’s base vote would lean seriously to her anyway. This is a poor investment for Republicans, and one they are not likely to make.

Junior Senator – Barbara Boxer (D)

1992: Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Bruce Herschensohn (R) 43%
1998: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 53%, Matt Fong (R) 43%
2004: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 58%, Bill Jones (R) 38%

In today’s California, Boxer is not really out of the political mainstream. Republicans look unlikely to put a serious investment into this uphill race. Assemblyman Chuck DeVore has announced that he will seek the Republican nomination, and would be favored to win it over his only current opponent, Al Ramirez. Neither will be more than a speed bump for Boxer. She’ll never get serious Republican support, but she won’t need it to post a win similar to her 2004 triumph.

House 1 – Mike Thompson (D)

2004: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 67%, Lawrence Wiesner (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 66%, John Jones (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) 68%, Zane Starkewolfe (R) 24%

This seat is safe for any Democrat. You’ll be hearing that a good deal in this column.

House 2 – Wally Herger (R)

2004: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 67%, Mike Johnson (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 64%, A.J. Sekhon (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Wally Herger (R) 57%, Jeff Morris (R) 43%

Herger’s numbers dipped due to some negative publicity concerning ethics. Short of an indictment or something similar, this is a safe Republican seat.

House 3 – Dan Lungren (R)

2004: Dan Lungren (R) 62%, Gabe Castillo (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 59%, Bill Durston (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 50%, Bill Durston (R) 44%

This suburban Sacramento/Central California seat is mostly Republican, but it isn’t totally off limits to Democrats. Lungren performed quite poorly against a bad candidate. If the political climate continues to favor Democrats, it might be worth their while to compete here. Lungren lost a challenge to Representative John Boehner for Minority Leader, throwing his House future somewhat into doubt.

House 4 – John Doolittle (R)

2004: Rep. John Doolittle (R) 65%, David Winters (D) 35%
2006: Rep. John Doolittle (R) 49%, Charlie Brown (D) 46%
2008: Tom McClintock (R) 50%, Charlie Brown (D) 50%

This seat should never elect a Democrat, yet Charlie Brown very nearly won it in 2008. The good Democratic tailwind helped, but he also benefitted from Doolittle’s serious ethical problems, a very conservative Republican candidate, and a lack of GOP attention. McClintock will probably appear on target lists in 2010, but if the Democrats couldn’t win this seat in 2008 it is hard to see how they ever will.

House 5 – Doris Matsui (D)

2004: Rep. Bob Matsui (D) 71%, Mike Dugas (R) 23%
2005 special: Doris Matusi (D) 68%, John Thomas Flynn (R) 8%*
2006: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) 71%, Claire Yan (R) 24%
2008: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) 75%, Paul Smith (R) 21%

*All party primary: Democrat Julie Padilla actually finished second with 9%

I can’t imagine a scenario that would imperil Matsui.

House 6 – Lynn Woolsey (D)

2004: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 73%, Paul Erickson (R) 23%
2006: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 70%, Todd Hooper (R) 26%
2008: Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) 72%, Mike Halliwell (R) 24%

This is one of the most Democratic districts in the nation, and Woolsey is one of the most liberal members of Congress. Representative democracy lives!

House 7 – George Miller (D)

2004: Rep. George Miller (D) 76%, Charles Hargrave (R) 24%
2006: Rep. George Miller (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. George Miller (D) 73%, Roger Petersen (R) 22%

Miller’s biggest problem in this overwhelmingly Democratic district is trying to make people forget that George W. Bush once gave him a nickname (“Big George”).

House 8 – Nancy Pelosi (D)

2004: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 83%, Jennifer Depalma (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 80%, Mike DeNunzio (R) 11%
2008: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) 72%, Dana Walsh (R) 10%

Pelosi has a better chance of losing the Speaker’s gavel in January than she ever does of losing her House seat. Cindy Sheehan (16%), running as Independent outpolled the Republican in the last election.

House 9 – Barbara Lee (D)

2004: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 85%, Claudia Bermudez (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 86%, John Den Dulk (R) 11%
2008: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) 86%, Charles Hargrave (R) 10%

Do you think Lee gloats over voting against war in Afghanistan?

House 10 – Ellen Tauscher (D)

2004: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) 66%, Jeff Ketelson (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) 66%, Darcy Linn (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) 65%, Nicholas Gerber (R) 31%

This seat in the Eastern Bay suburbs is the Republican seat in the San Francisco Bay Area. In practice, this means Republicans are merely highly unlikely to ever win it. The moderate Tauscher does not give them any openings. In fact, she’s probably more vulnerable to a liberal primary challenger than to a Republican.

House 11 – Jerry McNerney (D)

2004: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) 61%, Jerry McNerney (D) 39%
2006: Jerry McNerney (D) 53%, Rep. Richard Pombo (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 56%, Dean Andal (R) 34%

This is often described as a Republican district, but in truth it is a tossup district. McNerney took advantage of a controversial incumbent in 2006 and a weaker than expected challenge in 2008. If the political climate neutralizes McNerney will be vulnerable to a strong challenge, and he probably could not survive a good Republican year. Republicans should target this seat.

House 12 – Jackie Speier (D)

2004: Rep. Tom Lantos (D) 68%, Mike Garza (R) 21%
2006: Rep. Tom Lantos (D) 76%, Mike Moloney (R) 24%
2008 special: Jackie Speier (D) 77%, Greg Conlon (R) 9%
2008: Rep. Jackie Speier (D) 75%, Greg Conlon (R) 19%

Speier is set for life in this district. Not bad for someone who survived the hell of Jonestown.

House 13 – Pete Stark (D)

2004: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 72%, George Bruno (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 75%, George Bruno (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Pete Stark (D) 76%, Raymond Chui (R) 24%

Stark is next in line to chair the Ways and Means Committee. He is also one of the most controversial and outrageous and controversial members of Congress, which may help keep Honest Charlie Rangel in the chair.

House 14 – Anna Eshoo (D)

2004: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 70%, Chris Haugen (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 71%, Rob Smith (R) 24%
2008: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) 70%, Ronny Santana (R) 22%

I’m sure you’re shocked to learn that Eshoo has nothing to worry about.

House 15 – Mike Honda (D)

2004: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 72%, Raymond Chukwu (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 72%, Raymond Chukwu (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Mike Honda (D) 72%, Joyce Cordi (R) 23%

You have to give Honda points for consistency.

House 16 – Zoe Lofgren (D)

2004: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 72%, Douglas McNea (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 73%, Charel Winston (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) 72%, Charel Winston (R) 24%

No wonder Californians don’t find politics interesting. This seat will never be competitive.

House 17 – Sam Farr (D)

2004: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 67%, Mark Risley (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 76%, Anthony DeMaio (R) 23%
2008: Rep. Sam Farr (D) 73%, Jeff Taylor (R) 27%

I’m not feeling very creative today, so I don’t have much to say about this one.

House 18 – Dennis Cardoza (D)

2004: Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 68%, Charles Pringle (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 65%, John Kanno (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) unopposed

This Central Valley district is actually a swing seat, but nobody has bothered to tell the Republicans. I think it is safe to say that Cardoza is entrenched at this point.

House 19 – George Radanovich (R)

2004: Rep. George Radanovich (R) 66%, James Bufford (D) 27%
2006: Rep. George Radanovich (R) 61%, T.J. Cox (D) 39%
2008: Rep. George Radanovich (R) unopposed

This is a safe Republican district. Don’t let anyone tell you that the Democratic redistricters are ungenerous.

House 20 – Jim Costa (D)

2004: Jim Costa (D) 53%, Roy Ashburn (R) 47%
2006: Rep. Jim Costa (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jim Costa (D) 74%, Jim Lopez (R) 26%

This Fresno to Bakersfield seat leans Democratic, but Costa seems to have wrapped it up. Check back if a Republican wave develops.

House 21 – Devin Nunes (R)

2004: Rep. Devin Nunes (R) 73%, Fred Davis (D) 27%
2006: Rep. Devin Nunes (R) 67%, Steven Haze (D) 30%
2008: Rep. Devin Nunes (R) 68%, Larry Johnson (D) 32%

They had to pack all the Republicans somewhere, and this is the place. Nunes is safe.

House 22 – Kevin McCarthy (R)

2004: Rep. Bill Thomas (R) unopposed
2006: Kevin McCarthy (R) 71%, Sharon Beery (D) 29%
2008: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) unopposed

McCarthy chaired the Republican Platform Committee and is one of the fastest rising stars in the House. He has nothing to worry about at home.

House 23 – Lois Capps (D)

2004: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 63%, Don Regan (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 65%, Victor Tognazzini (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Lois Capps (D) 68%, Matt Kokkonen (R) 32%

This coastal district could possibly go Republican in a big GOP year in which the seat was open. Capps is safe, however. It certainly does not hurt her cause that she is annually voted the nicest member of Congress.

House 24 – Elton Gallegly (R)

2004: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 63%, Brett Wagner (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 62%, Jill Martinez (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) 58%, Marta Jorgensen (D) 42%

This Southern California seat leans Republican, but not so much so that Gallegly can afford to fall asleep if the political climate remains hostile to Republicans.

House 25 – Buck McKeon (R)

2004: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 64%, Tim Willoughby (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 60%, Robert Rodriguez (D) 36%
2008: Rep. Buck McKeon (R) 58%, Jackie Conaway (D) 42%

This massive North Los Angeles/Central California seat is not totally out of reach for Democrats, but if they haven’t been able to get close to McKeon the last two years you have figure that McKeon is probably in good shape.

House 26 – David Dreier (R)

2004: Rep. David Dreier (R) 54%, Cynthia Matthews (D) 43%
2006: Rep. David Dreier (R) 57%, Cynthia Matthews (D) 38%
2008: Rep. David Dreier (R) 53%, Russ Warner (D) 40%

Dreier doesn’t really run ahead of a generic Republican in this Rancho Cucamonga/Northern LA suburbs district. Don’t be surprised if he gets stronger competition in 2010. That said, Dreier is the ranking member on the Rules Committee and has a huge war chest, so he’ll be tough to beat.

House 27 – Brad Sherman (D)

2004: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 62%, Robert Levy (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 69%, Peter Hankwitz (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 69%, Navraj Singh (R) 25%

As we get into the Los Angeles seats, this is Safe Democrat Number One

House 28 – Howard Berman (D)

2004: Rep. Howard Berman (D) 71%, David Hernandez (R) 23%
2006: Rep. Howard Berman (D) 74%, Stanley Kesselman (R) 19%
2008: Rep. Howard Berman (D) unopposed

Safe Democrat Number Two (even safer than Number One)

House 29 – Adam Schiff (D)

2004: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 65%, Harry Scolinos (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 63%, William Bodell (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) 69%, Charles Hahn (R) 27%

Safe Democrat Number Three (who we miss on Law & Order)

House 30 – Henry Waxman (D)

2004: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) 71%, Victor Elizalde (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) 71%, David Jones (R) 26%
2008: Rep. Henry Waxman (D) unopposed

Safe Democrat Number Four (who just knocked John Dingell out of the Energy & Commerce Chair, thus signaling a triumph of green oriented House Democrats).

House 31 – Xavier Becerra (D)

2004: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) 80%, Luis Vega (D) 20%
2006: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) unopposed

Safe Democrat Number Five is in line to be the U.S. Trade Representative. Republicans shouldn’t hold their breath in the special election.

House 32 – Hilda Solis (D)

2004: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Hilda Solis (D) unopposed

Safe Democrat Number Six sort of blends in with the crowd.

House 33 – Diane Watson (D)

2004: Rep. Diane Watson (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Diane Watson (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Diane Watson (D) 87%, David Crowley (R) 13%

Safe Democrat Number Seven is really liberal, not that it’s a problem here.

House 34 – Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

2004: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 74%, Wayne Miller (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 77%, Wayne Miller (R) 23%
2008: Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 77%, Christopher Balding (R) 23%

Safe Democrat Number Eight has a name that is a pain to type.

House 35 – Maxine Waters (D)

2004: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) 81%, Ross Moen (R) 15%
2006: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) 82%, Ted Hayes (R) 14%

Safe Democrat Number Nine should be ashamed that she only got 82%

House 36 – Jane Harman (D)

2004: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 62%, Paul Whitehead (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 63%, Brian Gibson (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Jane Harman (D) 68%, Brian Gibson (R) 32%

Safe Democrat Number Ten is not on good terms with Nancy Pelosi.

House 37 – Laura Richardson (D)

2004: Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) 75%, Vernon Van (R) 20%
2006: Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) unopposed
2007 special: Laura Richardson (D) 67%, John Kanaley (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Laura Richardson (D) unopposed

Safe Democrat Number Eleven is set for a long career.

House 38 – Grace Napolitano (D)

2004: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) 75%, Sidney Street (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) unopposed

I really don’t have much to say about Safe Democrat Number Twelve.

House 39 – Linda Sanchez (D)

2004: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) 61%, Tim Escobar (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) 66%, James Andion (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) 69%, Diane Lenning (R) 31%

Safe Democrat Number Thirteen has benefitted greatly from using her maiden name rather than her Anglo married name.

House 40 – Ed Royce (R)

2004: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 68%, Tilman Williams (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 67%, Florice Hoffman (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Ed Royce (R) 63%, Christina Avalos (D) 37%

The string is up! This Fullerton/Anaheim/Orange district is mostly Republican. An open seat in a Democratic year might be interesting, but Royce should have no problem holding on as long as he wants.

House 41 – Jerry Lewis (R)

2004: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) 67%, Louie Conteras (D) 33%
2008: Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) 62%, Tim Prince (D) 38%

This San Bernardino district is mostly Republican. Lewis had some ethical issues but still won easily. Unless this blossoms into an indictment, Democrats are out of luck.

House 42 – Gary Miller (R)

2004: Rep. Gary Miller (R) 68%, Lewis Myers (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Gary Miller (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Gary Miller (R) 61%, Ed Chau (D) 39%

Democrats will never win this one.

House 43 – Joe Baca (D)

2004: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 66%, Ed Laning (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 64%, Scott Folkens (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Joe Baca (D) 68%, John Roberts (R) 32%

No, that was not the Chief Justice.

House 44 – Ken Calvert (R)

2004: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 62%, Louis Vandenberg (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 60%, Louis Vandenberg (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) 52%, Bill Hedrick (D) 48%

Calvert got a tough call from a third tier opponent in this Republican leaning Riverside based seat. Calvert will almost certainly see better competition in 2010, though he remains favored.

House 45 – Mary Bono (R)

2004: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 67%, Richard Meyer (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 61%, David Roth (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Mary Bono (R) 57%, Julie Bornstein (D) 43%

This Riverside County seat is one of the few real swing districts in California. It surprises me that Mrs. Connie Mack hasn’t gotten real competition. Even if she does, she remains favored.

House 46 – Dana Rohrabacher (R)

2004: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 62%, Jim Brandt (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 60%, Jim Brandt (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) 53%, Debbie Cook (D) 43%

Rohrabacher survived a decently serious challenge in this Huntington Beach based seat. This district leans Republican, and Rohrabacher will be tough to beat, especially in a more neutral environment.

House 47 – Loretta Sanchez (D)

2004: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 60%, Alex Coronado (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 62%, Tan Nguyen (R) 38%
2008: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 69%, Rosie Avila (R) 26%

This Garden Grove/Santa Ana seat leans Democratic, but nearly as much as these other Democratic seats. Sanchez is safe as long as she runs, but she has expressed interest in running for Governor. If she does vacate the seat, a decent Republican would have a chance in the right year.

House 48 – John Campbell (R)

2004: Rep. Chris Cox (R) 65%, John Graham (D) 32%
2005 special: John Campbell (R) 44%, Steve Young (D) 28%
2006: Rep. John Campbell (R) 60%, Steve Young (D) 37%
2008: Rep. John Campbell (R) 56%, Steve Young (D) 41%

Campbell hasn’t totally locked this mostly Republican Irvine based seat. However, after holding on the last two cycles it is hard to see him losing.

House 49 – Darrell Issa (R)

2004: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 63%, Mike Byron (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 63%, Jeeni Criscenzo (D) 33%
2008: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 59%, Robert Hamilton (D) 37%

Issa dreams of statewide office. In the meantime, he will content himself with this safe seat.

House 50 – Brian Bilbray (R)

2004: Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R) 58%, Francine Busby (D) 36%
2006 special: Brian Bilbray (R) 50%, Francine Busby (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) 53%, Francine Busby (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) 50%, Nick Leibham (D) 45%

This Republican leaning North San Diego seat looked like a huge target for Democrats over the past two cycles, but despite a good deal of Democratic money and effort the Republicans held on. The unimpressive Bilbray actually slipped in 2008 and may still be in trouble, but he maintains an edge.

House 51 – Bob Filner (D)

2004: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 62%, Michael Giorgino (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 67%, Blake Miles (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Bob Filner (D) 73%, David Joy (R) 25%

A Republican victory in this San Diego/Imperial County seat isn’t inconceivable, but Filner’s biggest problem is a primary challenge from Hispanics, who make up a majority of the district. Filner will not lose a general election as long as he is the Democratic nominee.

House 52 – Duncan Hunter (R)

2004: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) 69%, Brian Keliher (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) 65%, John Rinaldi (D) 32%
2008: Duncan D. Hunter (R) 57%, Mike Lumpkin (D) 39%

I thought Democrats might go after this mostly Republican San Diego seat when it came open due to Duncan Hunter’s ridiculous run for the White House. However, they essentially gave the incumbent’s son, Duncan D. Hunter, a pass. The younger Hunter’s not entrenched yet, but it would be tough to dislodge him.

House 53 – Susan Davis (D)

2004: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 66%, Darin Hunzeker (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 68%, John Woodrum (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Susan Davis (D) 69%, Michael Crimmins (R) 28%

In a fitting end to this column, we close with a safe Democratic seat.