State of the Day - Colorado

The Centennial State has symbolized the national shift toward the Democrats over the past four years more than any other state. For years, liberal Denver, Boulder, and the ski resorts have competed against the very socially conservative Outstate Colorado. The suburbs have always held the balance. For most of the 1990’s and early 2000’s, that gave Republicans an edge. However, the Colorado suburbs have shifted drastically to Democrats just as suburbs nationally have. This has made Colorado, at least for the time being, a Democratic leaning state. Democrats started their surge by taking an open Senate seat and the State Legislature in 2004. They then took the Governor’s Mansion and a House seat in 2006. They hit the mother lode in 2008, delivering the state for Barack Obama as well as seizing the other Senate seat and another House seat.

Now Colorado Democrats look to maintain and consolidate their gains. The demographic trends of the last five years give them a chance to do so, but it will not be a cakewalk. The House seat lost in 2008 provides an excellent chance for Republicans to bounce back, and Governor Bill Ritter and Senator Ken Salazar could be in some trouble with strong opponents and a good Republican climate. Colorado may be a blue state now, but that isn’t necessarily permanent.


President – 9 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 42%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 52%, John Kerry (D) 47%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 54%, John McCain (D) 45%

If one lines up the states from most conservative to most liberal, he will find that Colorado was the tipping point state providing the 270th Electoral Vote in 2008. This is a problem for Republicans not only because it went to Barack Obama, but that it was more Democratic than the national average. John McCain never seemed in good position in this state, even when he was leading. Republicans will need to either improve their relative position here or figure out how to make other states more Republican. In the current Electoral College Map, it will prove difficult for Republicans to win without Colorado. Given the recent trends, this is excellent news for Democrats.

Governor – Bill Ritter (D)

1998: Bill Owens (R) 49%, Gail Schoettler (D) 48%
2002: Gov. Bill Owens (R) 65%, Rollie Heath (D) 34%
2006: Bill Ritter (D) 57%, Bob Beauprez (R) 40%

Ritter is in good, if not great shape, with a 50% approval rating. As a pro-life Democrat, he is also in good shape to get some crossover votes. His big advantage comes from the recent Democratic trend here and Republican disarray. The leading GOP contender for the nomination at this point is anti-immigrant firebrand Representative Tom Tancredo. If he gets the nomination he has zero chance of attracting the broad based support necessary to win a statewide election. Republicans need to find somebody else if they want to challenge Ritter.

Senior Senator – Wayne Allard (R)

1996: Wayne Allard (R) 51%, Tom Strickland (D) 46%
2002: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) 51%, Tom Strickland (D) 46%
2008: Mark Udall (D) 53%, Bob Schaffer (D) 43%

In a year like 2008, there was never much doubt that Representative Mark Udall would win this open Senate seat. Udall will be the first truly liberal Senator Colorado has had since Gary Hart. His standing in 2014 will say a great deal about Colorado has become a real blue state by then.

Junior Senator – Ken Salzar (D)

1992: Ben Nighthorse Campbell (D) 52%, Terry Considine (R) 43%
1998: Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) 62%, Dottie Lamm (D) 35%
2004: Ken Salazar (D) 51%, Pete Coors (R) 47%

Salazar has kept a moderate profile and generally made himself a tough target for Republicans. If the Democratic climate subsides and Republicans bounce back, he could still theoretically be vulnerable. The real problem for the GOP is that they seem to lack a candidate. As of right now, this looks like a race where Salazar will get a pass and we’ll wonder why Republicans couldn’t give him a stiffer test.

House 1 – Diana DeGette (D)

2004: Rep. Diana DeGette (D) 73%, Roland Chicas (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Diana DeGette (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Diana DeGette (D) 72%, George Lilly (R) 24%

This seat did not need any Democratic surge to be safely in the blue column.

House 2 – Mark Udall (D)

2004: Rep. Mark Udall (D) 67%, Stephen Hackman (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Mark Udall (D) 68%, Rich Mancuso (R) 28%
2008: Jared Polis (D) 62%, Scott Starin (R) 34%

If this Boulder based seat came open in a big Republican year and Democrats nominated a bad candidate, a Republican win would not be impossible. Neither of those things occurred in 2008. Polis is probably safe barring scandal.

House 3 – John Salazar (D)

2004: John Salazar (D) 51%, Greg Walcher (R) 47%
2006: Rep. John Salazar (D) 62%, Scott Tipton (R) 37%
2008: Rep. John Salazar (D) 61%, Wayne Wolf (R) 39%

Republicans should be ashamed of their performances in this Republican leaning Grand Juction/Pueblo/West Colorado seat. Salazar is now in a position where he will be tough to evict, but it could get interesting if Republicans can pull themselves together.

House 4 – Marilyn Musgrave (R)

2004: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) 51%, Stan Matsunaka (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) 46%, Angie Paccione (D) 43%
2008: Betsy Markey (D) 56%, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (D) 44%

Republicans’ real problem in this Fort Collins/East Colorado seat was the controversial Musgrave, not the mostly Republican seat itself. I wouldn’t totally rule out Markey holding on here, but this seat would be tough to hold against a competent Republican in a non-Democratic wave year. Markey is one of the most vulnerable members of the House and a small underdog in 2010.

House 5 – Doug Lamborn (R)

2004: Rep. Joel Hefley (R) 71%, Fred Hardee (D) 27%
2006: Doug Lamborn (R) 60%, Jay Fawcett (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) 60%, Hal Bidlack (D) 37%

If it were possible for Republicans to lose this seat, Lamborn would have done it.

House 6 – Tom Tancredo (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) 59%, Joanna Conti (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) 59%, Bill Winter (D) 40%
2008: Mike Coffman (R) 60%, Hank Eng (D) 40%

Tancredo can look at the pathetic 2008 GOP performance among Hispanics and admire his handiwork. This is a safe Republican seat.

House 7 – Ed Perlmutter (D)

2004: Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) 55%, Dave Thomas (D) 43%
2006: Ed Perlmutter (D) 55%, Rick O’Donnell (R) 42%
2008: Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) 63%, John Lerew (R) 37%

This suburban Denver swing district perfectly illustrates the collapse of Colorado, and national, Republicans in the suburbs. It is going to be hard for Republicans to knock off Perlmutter, but it will also be hard for Republicans to win statewide without better performances in this district.