State of the Day - Connecticut

The Constitution State used to have pretty competitive politics. Now, for the most part Democrats dominate the state. Democrats have dominated on the Presidential level for some time. Republicans have now lost all five House seats and are horribly outnumbered in the State Legislature. Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell remains popular and Democrats have not been in the Governor’s Mansion for nearly two decades. Other than that, however, the closest Republicans get to winning anything here is with Senator Joe Lieberman. With solid majorities from both upper crust West Connecticut and Blue Collar East Connecticut, this is now a reliably Democratic state.

Democrats will try to make it a clean sweep by ousting Governor Rell in 2010. It won’t be easy, especially if Senator Christopher Dodd’s ethical problems blossom enough to invite a credible Republican challenge. In the macro picture, however, Democrats will continue to rule Connecticut.


President – 7 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 56%, George Bush (R) 38%
2004: John Kerry (D) 54%, Pres. George Bush (R) 44%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 61%, John McCain (R) 38%

Connecticut has not been interesting since George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988 and there is no reason to expect it to be close in 2012.

Governor – M. Jodi Rell (R)

1998: Gov. John Rowland (R) 63%, Barbara Kennelly (D) 35%
2002: Gov. John Rowland (R) 56%, Bill Curry (D) 44%
2006: Gov. M. Jodi Rell (R) 63%, John DeStefano (D) 35%

The last Connecticut Republican standing, Rell has maintained solid popularity ratings (currently 58%) since assuming the office from the disgraced John Rowland. Connecticut has become so Democratic that it would be hard to describe Rell as safe. However, Democrats will need a strong candidate and a serious effort to unseat Rell. Otherwise, the Democratic exile from the Governor’s Mansion will enter its third decade.

Senior Senator – Christopher Dodd (D)

1992: Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) 59%, Brook Johnson (R) 38%
1998: Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) 65%, Gary A. Franks (R) 32%
2004: Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) 66%, Jack Orchulli (R) 32%

Dodd encountered some disastrous publicity earlier this year when it was revealed that he was enrolled in a special VIP program with Nationwide Insurance. He further compounded this error by claiming that he thought this deal was available to the general public. This has the makings of a scandal, but to this point the situation hasn’t blossomed into a career threatening situation.

Unless the Nationwide incident becomes a bigger deal, Dodd will cruise to a sixth term. If Dodd continues in public hot water he may face some problems. In that case, the Republicans biggest problem is finding a candidate. Some had suggested the recently defeated Representative Christopher Shays, but he has announced he will not run.

Junior Senator – Joe Lieberman (D)*

1994: Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) 67%, Jerry Labriola (R) 31%
2000: Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) 63%, Phil Giordano (R) 34%
2006: Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) 50%, Alan Schlesinger (R) 10%*

*Lieberman lost the Democratic primary in 2006 and ran in the General Election under the Connecticut For Lieberman Party. He is now generally described as either an Independent or Independent Democrat, though he caucuses with Democrats and is thus considered a Democrat here. In 2006, Democratic nominee Ned Lamont won 40% of the vote.

In 2006, Lieberman won the general election with about one-third of Democrats and three-fourths of Republicans. After endorsing John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election, winning even a third of Democrats looks like a major stretch. He certainly could not win a Democratic primary. Making matters worse, his favorable ratings in Connecticut have sunk to around forty percent. If Republicans nominate anybody with a pulse who can command support from rank and file party members, Lieberman is finished. At this point, it seems that this is likely Lieberman’s last term in the Senate. The most probable scenario is that a more conventional Democrat replaces him. It is hard to find any scenario where a Republican wins this seat.

House 1 – John Larson (D)

2004: Rep. John Larson (D) 73%, John Halstead (R) 27%
2006: Rep. John Larson (D) 74%, Scott MacLean (R) 26%
2008: Rep. John Larson (D) 72%, Joe Visconti (R) 26%

Larson looks strikingly like Ted Kennedy, and is about as safe here as Kennedy is in Massachusetts.

House 2 – Joe Courtney (D)

2004: Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 54%, Jim Sullivan (D) 46%
2006: Joe Courtney (D) 50%, Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 50%
2008: Rep. Joe Courtney (D) 66%, Sean Sullivan (R) 32%

This New London/East Connecticut seat is mostly Democratic, but a Republican win here would not be impossible. After all, Republicans held the seat for most of this decade and only lost it by 83 votes in 2006. That said, Courtney avoided a serious challenge and seemed to entrench himself during his first term. It would take a major Republican wave to oust Courtney, which seems highly unlikely given the Republican struggles in the Northeast.

House 3 – Rosa DeLauro (D)

2004: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) 72%, Richter Elser (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) 76%, Joseph Vollano (R) 22%
2008: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) 77%, Bo Itshaky (R) 20%

DeLauro’s job security is much stronger than her fashion sense, which is repeatedly voted the worst in Congress by Capitol Hill staffers.

House 4 – Christopher Shays (R)

2004: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) 52%, Diane Farrell (D) 48%
2006: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) 51%, Diane Farrell (D) 48%
2008: Jim Himes (D) 52%, Rep. Christopher Shays (R) 47%

Democrats finally succeeded in knocking liberal Republican Shays out of this Democratic leaning Bridgeport/Stamford seat. Himes is not yet totally safe and may see a challenge if Republicans turn it around, but he will be strongly favored to hold this seat.

House 5 – Chris Murphy (D)

2004: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) 60%, Theresa Gerratana (D) 38%
2006: Chris Murphy (D) 54%, Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) 44%
2008: Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 59%, David Cappiello (R) 39%

This Danbury/New Britain/Waterbury seat is the most Republican in Connecticut. Even so, it still leans Democratic and Murphy had no problem taking and holding this seat. In all likelihood, it will take an open seat or a major Republican wave, if not both, for the GOP to reclaim this one.