State of the Day - Delaware

The First State has always been blessed with a general sense of stability. Between its Turnpike and status as the center of American corporations, it can generally maintain a sunny fiscal picture while keeping a light tax burden on its own citizens. For most of its history, it has had a vigorous two party politics marked a sense of civil decorum. However, the tax issue didn’t work here as well as it did elsewhere in the 1990’s and 2000’s. Thus, as it has become more socially liberal along with the rest of the Metro Atlantic region, Delaware has become a markedly Democratic state. Moderate Republican Representative Michael Castle remains popular and Republicans maintain a decent local infrastructure. However, Democrats dominate the state’s Senate seats and won a landslide victory for Governor, the party’s fifth in a row. Delaware is now a solidly Democratic state in both national and state elections.

Republicans hope for a rebound in 2010. Joseph Biden’s Senate seat will be open in a special election, and the machinations to get his son Beau into the seat have stirred some ill will and a potentially decent Republican opportunity. In general, however, there is little reason to suspect Delaware will see a Republican resurgence any time soon.


President – 3 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 55%, George Bush (R) 42%
2004: John Kerry (D) 53%, Pres. George Bush (R) 46%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 62%, John McCain (R) 37%

Believe it or not, Delaware was the nation’s best bellwether until 1996, voting for the winner twelve times in a row. However, it has become a heavily Democratic state over the last decade. It would take an epic collapse for Barack Obama to lose the state in 2012.

Governor – Ruth Ann Minner (D)

2000: Ruth Ann Minner (D) 59%, John M. Burris (R) 40%
2004: Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) 51%, Bill Lee (R) 46%
2008: Jack Markell (D) 68%, Bill Lee (R) 32%

Republicans must wonder if they will ever win the Governor’s Mansion, having failed to do so since 1988. They couldn’t beat Minner even when she was struggling, and State Treasurer Jack Markell won a landslide victory. No Delaware Governor has lost reelection since Sherman Tribbitt in 1976. Between the state’s proclivity for incumbents, the serious Democratic lean, and his own huge victory, Markell is in as good a shape as any Governor who has not yet taken office can be.

Senior Senator – Joseph Biden (D)

1996: Sen. Joseph Biden (D) 60%, Raymond Clatworthy (R) 38%
2002: Sen. Joseph Biden (D) 58%, Raymond Clatworthy (R) 41%
2008: Sen. Joseph Biden (D) 65%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 35%

Forty-eight years ago, Papa Joe Kennedy wanted his youngest son Teddy to take the Senate that older son John vacated to assume the Presidency. Unfortunately, Teddy was only 28, two years short of the constitutionally required 30. Undeterred, Papa Joe found John Kennedy’s old college roommate, Benjamin Smith, to serve the two years until a 1962 special election. This raised a stink and Teddy had serious competition, but he won and remains in the Senate to this day, a monument to nepotism among other things, both good and bad.

So history repeats itself. With Joseph Biden set to become Vice President, his son Attorney General Beau Biden would seem to be a natural fit. However, he will be in the Middle East with the National Guard for a year. Instead, Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Joseph Biden’s former Chief of Staff, Ted Kaufman, to serve until a 2010 special election. Kaufman has already announced he will not run for the full term. According to his statement, he believes it would be wrong for Delaware to run for reelection while serving. Considering he served as Biden’s Chief of Staff for 19 years, during which time Biden won three reelections, color me skeptical. Joseph Biden says Beau “would have it no other way but to win it himself.” Yeah, right.

Things like this usually don’t go over well, and Republicans may have an opening, especially if the Obama Administration is unpopular. However, Republicans really don’t have a credible candidate for this seat and have shown very few flashes of competence over the past few years. The Democrat, probably Beau Biden, look likely to hold this seat in the special election.

Junior Senator – Thomas Carper (D)

1994: Sen. William V. Roth Jr. (R) 56%, Charles Oberly (D) 43%
2000: Thomas Carper (D) 56%, Sen. William V. Roth Jr. (R) 44%
2006: Sen. Thomas Carper (D) 70%, Jan Ting (R) 29%

Carper is well on his way to being the next Joseph Biden, all the way down to the atrocious hair.

House At-Large – Michael Castle (R)

2004: Rep. Michael Castle (R) 69%, Paul Donnelly (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Michael Castle (R) 57%, Dennis Spivack (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Michael Castle (R) 61%, Karen Hartley-Nagle (D) 38%

This is the most Democratic district in the nation currently held by a Republican (at least until Anh Cao in Louisiana-2 takes office). The moderate Castle remains highly popular in Delaware. He has not really faced a serious challenge to his seat. It would not surprise me to see Democrats make a push here. They are out of low hanging fruit to pick off, making seats like this more attractive. They have also succeeded in evicting entrenched incumbents in mostly Democratic seats over the past two years. He may no longer get free passes, but Castle remains a favorite for 2010.