State of the Day - Florida

The Sunshine State trended toward the Democrats in the 1990’s, culminating with the Great Recount of 2000. Republicans seemed to pick up their game from there, stealing an open Senate seat in 2004 and easily holding the Governor’s Mansion in 2002 and 2006. However, Democrats have had their moments over the past two cycles. They have picked up multiple House seats and benefitted from Republican self-immolation to hold the Senate seat in 2006. Barack Obama carried Florida in 2008, but edged out a very narrow win here while he was winning big nationally. Florida remains a Republican leaning state, but one in which Democrats can certainly compete.

Democrats have more opportunities in 2010. Governor Charlie Crist looks in pretty good shape to win reelection, but Democrats have a major opportunity to pick up an open Senate seat. They will also have some opportunities to pick up more House seats, especially in South Florida, but will also have to work to maintain their gains from 2006 and 2008.


President – 27 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 49%, Al Gore (D) 49%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 52%, John Kerry (D) 47%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 51%, John McCain (R) 48%

Florida has actually trended Republican over the last eight years compared to the rest of the nation. Mirroring the nation in 2000, it went one point more Republican than the nation in 2004, but two points more Republican than the nation in 2008. The end result is a state that Democrats can obviously win, but don’t need in order to win the election. No Republican can expect to have a chance in today’s map without Florida. It’s an important state, but not one which will decide the election. Still, due to the state’s size and importance to Republicans, we expect Barack Obama to spend a good amount of time here to try to cement Florida, and by extension his reelection, for 2012. If he is a successful and popular President, he will probably win Florida again, but this is one of the first states he will lose if his standing slips.

Governor – Charlie Crist (R)

1998: Jeb Bush (R) 55%, Buddy MacKay (D) 45%
2002: Gov. Jeb Bush (R) 56%, Bill McBride (D) 43%
2006: Charlie Crist (R) 52%, Bill McBride (D) 45%

Crist maintains a solid 55% approval rating. Florida has enough of a Democratic base to where he could see a real challenge. However, to this point nobody of any import seems interest in challenging him. With the open Senate seat a potentially more enticing and realistic prize for a Democrat, Crist may get a free pass.

Senior Senator – Bill Nelson (D)
1994: Sen. Connie Mack (R) 70%, Hugh Rodham (D) 30%
2000: Bill Nelson (D) 51%, Bill McCollum (R) 46%
2006: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 60%, Katherine Harris (R) 38%

Nelson is in solid shape, but he will almost certainly get a better challenge in 2012 than the ludicrous Katherine Harris.

Junior Senator – Mel Martinez (R)

1992: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 65%, James Grant (R) 35%
1998: Sen. Bob Graham (D) 62%, Charlie Crist (R) 38%
2004: Mel Martinez (R) 49%, Betty Castor (D) 48%

Martinez has announced that he will not seek another term. Jeb Bush is clearly the strongest potential candidate and would probably clear the field on both sides if he runs. If he passes, Allan Bense is the most likely Republican nominee.

So far, the Democratic contest has been marked by who won’t run. Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jim Naugle and Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler have all passed.

Republicans remain favored if Bush runs. If he doesn’t this race is a tossup with perhaps a slight edge to the Democrats.

House 1 – Jeff Miller (R)

2004: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 73%, Mark Coutu (D) 27%
2006: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 69%, Joe Roberts (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Jeff Miller (R) 70%, James Bryan (D) 30%

This district is a bastion of Republicanism that will never elect a Democrat

House 2 – Allen Boyd (D)

2004: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 62%, Bev Kilmer (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) 62%, Mark Mulligan (R) 38%

Boyd has set himself in fine position in this swing Tallahassee/North Florida seat, and is probably safe barring a severe reversal of fortune. An open seat would be a slugfest.

House 3 – Corrine Brown (D)

2004: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Corrine Brown (D) unopposed

This is a GOP wasteland.

House 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)

2004: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) 70%, Robert Harms (D) 30%
2008: Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) 65%, Jay McGovern (D) 35%

It would take the return (and migration) of Mark Foley to make Democrats competitive here.

House 5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

2004: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 66%, Robert Whittel (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 60%, John Russell (R) 40%
2008: Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) 61%, John Russell (R) 39%

This Central Florida seat leans Republican, but Brown-Waite has benefitted from a total inability of Democrats to field a competent candidate. Brown-Waite will always be favored, but this may be an intriguing Democratic target with the right opportunity. Democrats have certainly won worse districts in the past two cycles.

House 6 – Cliff Stearns (R)

2004: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 64%, David Bruderly (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 60%, David Bruderly (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Cliff Stearns (R) 61%, Tim Cunha (D) 39%

It would take a series of very fortuitous circumstances for Democrats to win this oddly shaped North Florida seat. Stearns doesn’t appear to be helping them.

House 7 – John Mica (R)

2004: Rep. John Mica (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Mica (R) 63%, John Chagnon (D) 37%
2008: Rep. John Mica (R) 62%, Faye Armitage (D) 38%

This Republican leaning Daytona Beach/Northeast Coast seat seemingly provided a good opportunity for Democrats during their surge. Nevertheless, they never provided a serious challenge and Mica looks like he will be tough to upend, despite his horrid toupee.

House 8 – Ric Keller (R)

2004: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 61%, Stephen Murray (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Ric Keller (R) 53%, Charlie Stuart (D) 46%
2008: Alan Grayson (D) 52%, Ric Keller (R) 48%

Keller totally fell asleep, which is inexcusable given the marginal nature of this Orlando area seat. This looks to be a total tossup for 2010.

House 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)

2004: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) unopposed
2006: Gus Bilirakis (R) 56%, Phyllis Busansky (D) 44%
2008: Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) 62%, Bill Mitchell (D) 36%

Democrats have had success targeting Republican leaning districts in the last few elections, but not so much in Florida. They are unlikely to budge Bilirakis from this North Tampa seat.

House 10 – Bill Young (R)

2004: Rep. Bill Young (R) 69%, Bob Derry (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Bill Young (R) 66%, Samm Simpson (D) 34%
2008: Rep. Bill Young (R) 61%, Bob Hackworth (D) 39%

By all accounts, this Clearwater/Largo seat should be closely competitive, but Democrats have not gone after the veteran Young. That may change, but Young will remain favored as long as he runs.

House 11 – Kathy Castor (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Davis (D) unopposed
2006: Kathy Castor (D) 70%, Eddie Adams (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Kathy Castor (D) 72%, Eddie Adams (R) 28%

This is a totally safe Democratic district. Eddie Adams can give up now.

House 12 – Adam Putnam (R)

2004: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) 65%, Bob Hagenmaier (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Adam Putnam (R) 58%, Doug Tudor (D) 42%

Democrats are unlikely to knock Putnam out of this Republican leaning Central Florida seat. Nevertheless, Putnam’s rising star seems to have dimmed a bit, as he seemed to be forced out as Republican Conference Chairman. His future seems more likely to come in statewide office.

House 13 – Vern Buchanan (R)

2004: Rep. Katherine Harris (R) 55%, Jan Schneider (D) 45%
2006: Vern Buchanan (R) 50%, Christine Jennings (D) 50%
2008: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 56%, Christine Jennings (D) 38%

After nearly being derailed by the Democratic wave and the Katherine Harris Show in 2006, Buchanan emphatically put his stamp on this Republican leaning East Central Florida seat in 2008. He is not out of the woods yet, but his career is definitely looking up.

House 14 – Connie Mack (R)

2004: Connie Mack (R) 68%, Robert Neeld (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Connie Mack (R) 64%, Robert Neeld (D) 36%
2008: Rep. Connie Mack (R) 59%, Robert Neeld (D) 25%

Mack can take up house with new wife Mary Bono in California, because he has no worries here.

House 15 – Dave Weldon (R)

2004: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 65%, Simon Pristoop (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dave Weldon (R) 56%, Bob Bowman (D) 44%
2008: Bill Posey (R) 53%, Stephen Blythe (D) 42%

Democrats’ failure to come even close to this Republican leaning Melbourne based seat in a year like 2008 bodes very poorly on their chances of winning here in the future.

House 16 – Tim Mahoney (D)

2004: Rep. Mark Foley (R) 68%, Jeff Fisher (D) 32%
2006: Tim Mahoney (D) 50%, Joe Negron (R) 48%
2008: Tom Rooney (R) 60%, Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) 40%

This Port St. Lucie seat remains, at heart, a tossup district. However, one has to think that Rooney can only benefit from the low bar set by his predecessors.

House 17 – Kendrick Meek (D)

2004: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) unopposed

It doesn’t get any safer than this.

House 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

2004: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 65%, Sam Sheldon (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 62%, David Patlak (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 58%, Annette Taddeo (D) 42%

Democrats hoped that a better performance among Cubans, especially younger Cubans hyped about Obama, would imperil Florida’s three Cuban Republicans. They tried hard, but it didn’t happen. This Miami/Florida Keys district still leans Republican, and Ros-Lehtinen remains a very tough target.

House 19 – Robert Wexler (D)

2004: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Robert Wexler (D) 66%, Edward Lynch (R) 27%

Wexler acts like his goal in life is to get more air time than Charles Schumer. He really doesn’t need it to hold this seat.

House 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

2004: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 70%, Margaret Hostetter (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) unopposed

Wasserman Schultz is not quite as skilled as Wexler in getting on television, though she certainly has the potential to be after a few more years in office.

House 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

2004: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 59%, Frank Gonzalez (D) 41%
2008: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 58%, Raul Martinez (R) 42%

National Democrats were writing Diaz-Balart’s political obituary immediately before the election, but he won easily against a spirited challenge. Given the outcome, it is hard to see Democrats knocking him out of this Republican leaning Pembroke Pines/Hialeah district.

House 22 – Ron Klein (D)

2004: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 63%, Robin Rorapaugh (D) 35%
2006: Ron Klein (D) 51%, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Ron Klein (D) 55%, Allen West (R) 45%

West wants to run again, which should elicit groans at NRCC headquarters. In any event, this weird looking Coral Springs/coastal district leans Democratic and Klein has an excellent chance of holding on for the long term.

House 23 – Alcee Hastings (D)

2004: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) 82%, Marion Thorpe (R) 18%

Hastings should call Rod Blagojevich to offer advice on how to live life after disgrace.

House 24 – Tom Feeney (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Tom Feeney (R) unopposed
2008: Suzanne Kosmas (D) 57%, Tom Feeney (R) 41%

Feeney lost this seat because he caught getting cozy with Jack Abramoff. Nevertheless, this Daytona Beach/Orlando mess of a district could generally go either way, and Kosmas is the early favorite to hold the seat, though she can expect stiff competition.

House 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

2004: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 58%, Michael Calderin (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 53%, Joe Garcia (D) 47%

Democrats need to go back to the drawing board with their plans to knock the Cuban Republicans out of these Republican leaning seats. Mario Diaz-Balart had the closest call of the three, but he still survived with a decent margin for error. He will be favored over any challenger.