State of the Day - Georgia

The Empire State of the South has become one of the hearts of the Republican Party. Traditionally Democratic, Georgia voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and nearly voted for him again in 1996. However, George W. Bush easily won it twice. Democrats totally collapsed on the state level in this decade, losing the Governor’s Mansion and state legislature for the first time in 2002. Republicans now keep a firm hold on the two Senate seats and House delegation. Democrats hoped for a comeback in 2008 based on heavy black turnout for Barack Obama. That turnout materialized, but it still wasn’t enough for Obama or Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin.

The Republican stranglehold in Georgia should continue. Even with black turnout increasing up to perhaps 30% of the total electorate, Republicans still held on here. The December runoff for Senate featured drastically reduced black turnout, and a corresponding decrease in Democratic performance. Democrats can lose badly in normal circumstances and respectably with Obama on the ballot, but cannot win in either situation.


President – 15 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 55%, Al Gore (D) 43%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 58%, John Kerry (D) 41%
2008: John McCain (R) 52%, Barack Obama (D) 47%

Democrats breathlessly talked about carrying Georgia through most of the campaign. The idea apparently was that black turnout would increase so much that Obama would rocket to victory. This idea was ludicrous given how badly Democrats do among white Georgia voters, but it persisted nonetheless.

The black turnout did increase, making up nearly 30% of the electorate, up from 25% four years earlier. It still wasn’t near enough. McCain’s victory here even while losing badly nationally and facing increased black turnout indicates just how solidly red Georgia is. Unless Obama bumps up his national total to 57 or 58 percent, he will lose Georgia again in 2012.

Governor – Sonny Perdue (R)

1998: Roy Barnes (D) 53%, Guy Millner (R) 44%
2002: Sonny Perdue (R) 51%, Gov. Roy Barnes (D) 46%
2006: Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) 58%, Mark Taylor (D) 38%

Perdue cannot run for reelection. He is the first Republican Governor of Georgia, but he won’t be the last. Senator Johnny Isakson passed on this race, but Republicans still look to have a competitive primary between Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. Either would be heavily favored over Democrat David Poythress.

Senior Senator – Saxby Chambliss (R)

1996: Max Cleland (D) 49%, Guy Millner (R) 48%
2002: Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%, Sen. Max Cleland (D) 46%
2008: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 57%, Jim Martin (D) 43%*

*Runoff required under Georgia law when no candidate reached 50% in the general election. Chambliss fell just short of that mark, leading Martin 50-47.

Chambliss is a solid conservative well suited to the Georgia of the 21st Century. Nevertheless, he got caught up in the huge black turnout, which led to his falling just a little less than 5,000 votes short of 50%. Blacks did not turn out for Martin in the runoff like they did for Obama, falling to just over 20% of the electorate. This resulted in the sort of rout that has become expected in Georgia in recent years. It will take a major change in Georgia’s political outlook to threaten Chambliss.

Junior Senator – Johnny Isakson (R)

1992: Paul Coverdell (R) 51%, Sen. Wyche Fowler (D) 49%*
1998: Sen. Paul Coverdell (R) 52%, Michael Coles (D) 45%
2000 special: Sen. Zell Miller (D) 58%, Mack Mattingly (R) 38%
2004: Johnny Isakson (R) 58%, Denise Majette (R) 40%

*Runoff. Fowler lead Coverdell 49-48 in the November general election.

Isakson will be solid favorite over any Democrat.

House 1 – Jack Kingston (R)

2004: Rep. Jack Kingston (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jack Kingston (R) 69%, Jim Nelson (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Jack Kingston (R) 67%, Bill Gillespie (D) 33%

This district is as red as Stone Mountain.

House 2 – Sanford Bishop (D)

2004: Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) 67%, Dave Eversman (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) 68%, Bradley Hughes (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) 69%, Lee Ferrell (R) 31%

This Southwest Georgia district, which includes Albany and the southern parts of Columbus, is an odd one. It is 48% black, but racial patterns are so polarized that it divides almost evenly between the two parties. Bishop, by far the most conservative member of the Congressional Black Caucus, is a perfect fit here. He is safe as long as he runs.

House 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (R)

2004: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 63%, Calder Clay (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) 68%, Mike McGraw (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) 66%, Stephen Camp (D) 34%

Westmoreland will never face a serious Democratic challenge in this district.

House 4 – Hank Johnson (D)

2004: Cynthia McKinney (D) 64%, Catherine Davis (R) 36%
2006: Hank Johnson (D) 75%, Catherine Davis (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Hank Johnson (D) unopposed

Sometimes when I’m trying to assign the Alan Keyes Award, I find myself missing Cynthia McKinney.

House 5 – John Lewis (D)

2004: Rep. John Lewis (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Lewis (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. John Lewis (D) unopposed

After initially supporting Hillary Clinton for President, Lewis attracted primary challengers who accused him of not looking out for African-Americans. Whatever.

House 6 – Tom Price (R)

2004: Tom Price (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Tom Price (R) 72%, Steve Sinton (D) 28%
2008: Rep. Tom Price (R) 68%, Bill Jones (D) 32%

I’m a bit short of safe district one liners tonight.

House 7 – John Linder (R)

2004: Rep. John Linder (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Linder (R) 71%, Allan Burns (D) 29%
2008: Rep. John Linder (R) 62%, Doug Heckman (D) 38%

Linder can hold all night bitch sessions with co-author Neal Boortz. He won’t be doing much legislating in the 111th Congress.

House 8 – Jim Marshall (D)

2004: Lynn Westmoreland (R) 76%, Silvia Delamar (D) 24%
2006: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 51%, Mac Collins (R) 49%
2008: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 57%, Rick Goddard (R) 43%

Marshall’s life was made immeasurably more difficult by a 2005 redistricting that turned this Central Georgia seat, based primarily in Macon and Warner Robins, into a mostly Republican territory. Marshall’s talents and conservative record, as well as the serious Democratic tailwind, has helped him survive. In 2008 he benefitted from increased black turnout in a 32% black district. Marshall is a resourceful politician, but he will be in serious trouble in a better Republican year, especially without Obama on the ballot. This should be considered a tossup for 2010.

House 9 – Nathan Deal (R)

2004: Rep. Charlie Norwood (R) 74%, Bob Ellis (D) 26%
2006: Rep. Nathan Deal (R) 77%, John Bradbury (D) 23%
2008: Rep. Nathan Deal (R) 75%, Jeff Scott (D) 25%

If Republicans ever lose this district it will mean that the Green Party is now America’s second major party.

House 10 – Paul Broun (R)

2004: Rep. Nathan Deal (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Charlie Norwood (R) 67%, Terry Holley (D) 33%
2007 special: Paul Broun (R) 21%, James Marlow (D) 20%*
2008: Rep. Paul Broun (R) 61%, Bobby Saxon (D) 39%

*Georgia special elections are all party primaries with runoffs. Republican Jim Whitehead actually led the first round with 44 percent to 21 for Broun and 20 for Marlow. Broun won the runoff by 394 votes.

Broun is more vulnerable to a primary challenge from Republicans angered at his Ron Paul Jr. impersonation than from outmanned Democrats.

House 11 – Phil Gingrey (R)

2004: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) 57%, Rick Crawford (D) 43%
2006: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) 71%, Patrick Pillion (D) 29%
2008: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) 68%, Hugh Gammon (D) 32%

Gingrey would probably chalk up his victories to favor from God. I chalk them up to a serious lack of Democrats in this district.

House 12 – John Barrow (D)

2004: John Barrow (D) 52%, Rep. Max Burns (R) 48%
2006: Rep. John Barrow (D) 50%, Max Burns (R) 50%
2008: Rep. John Barrow (D) 66%, John Stone (R) 34%

This Augusta to Savannah seat is legitimate tossup. This made Barrow’s struggles in 2006 quite odd, considering the Democratic climate. The population here is 45% black, which made a Republican victory in 2008 impossible. Republicans could come back here, but will need to find someone more appealing than John Stone. Barrow is a strong favorite in any circumstances.

House 13 – David Scott (D)

2004: Rep. David Scott (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. David Scott (D) 69%, Deborah Honeycutt (R) 31%
2008: Rep. David Scott (D) 69%, Deborah Honeycutt (R) 31%

Scott actually votes quite conservatively for someone in such a safe Democratic district. I can’t help but wonder if he might have ambitions for higher office.