State of the Day - Hawaii

The Aloha State quietly has one of the most powerful and long lasting political machines in the United States. This is a Democratic state, and it is run by an insular political machine every bit as powerful as those in Illinois and New York. For forty years, offices were passed around like office Christmas gifts. However, government performance slowly slipped and Hawaii’s economy suffered. This helped create cracks in the machine. Republican Linda Lingle won the Governor’s Mansion in 2002 after a close call in 1998. However, as Democrats have surged nationally, the machine has rebounded in Hawaii. Senator Daniel Akaka survived a vigorous challenge from outsider Ed Case, and machine stalwart Mazie Hirono took Case’s place in the House.

The Democratic machine has an excellent chance of retaking total control of Hawaii in 2010. Governor Linda Lingle will vacate the Governor’s Mansion, and Hawaii Republicans have returned to their normal sorry state. With Daniel Inouye cruising to yet another reelection, all the action will center on the race to replace Lingle.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 56%, George Bush (R) 47%
2004: John Kerry (D) 54%, Pres. George Bush (R) 45%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 72%, John McCain (R) 27%

Hawaii is a solidly Democratic state, though it does seem to have an affinity for Republican incumbents. Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan carried Hawaii in their reelections, and George W. Bush turned in a surprisingly respectable performance in 2004. Barack Obama’s family ties to Hawaii seemed to help in 2008, as his margin of victory over McCain was ridiculous even by Hawaii’s standards. I cringe to think of the state the country would have to be in for Hawaii to even be part of the discussion in 2012.

Governor – Linda Lingle (R)

1998: Gov. Ben Cayetano (D) 50%, Linda Lingle (R) 49%
2002: Linda Lingle (R) 52%, Mazie Hirono (D) 47%
2006: Gov. Linda Lingle (R) 63%, Randy Iwase (R) 35%

Lingle cannot run for reelection. Lieutenant Governor James Aiona is the most likely Republican nominee. Lingle remains popular so I wouldn’t totally discount his chances of winning. However, it will be a seriously uphill fight. Representative Neil Abercrombie would be the leading Democrat if he decides to run. Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa are other possible Democrats.

Senior Senator – Daniel Inouye (D)

1992: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 57%, Rick Reed (R) 27%
1998: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 79%, Crystal Young (R) 18%
2004: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 76%, Cam Cavasso (R) 21%

Inouye is a living legend and will not have any problem winning reelection as long he wants to run.

Junior Senator – Daniel Akaka (D)

1994: Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) 72%, Maria Hustace (R) 24%
2000: Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) 73%, John Carroll (R) 25%
2006: Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) 61%, Cynthia Thielen (R) 37%

Akaka is decidedly not a living legend, but he is well respected in Hawaii. He survived an insurgent primary challenge from Ed Case in 2006, and he might face another one in 2012 when he’ll be 88. Even so, Akaka will be a heavy favorite against anybody from either party.

House 1 – Neil Abercrombie (D)

2004: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) 63%, Dalton Tanonaka (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) 69%, Richard Hough (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) 77%, Steve Tataii (R) 19%

Abercrombie is safe in this mostly Democratic Honolulu district. This race could possibly get interesting if it came open in a very good Republican year. Otherwise, it should remain in the blue column.

House 2 – Mazie Hirono (D)

2004: Rep. Ed Case (D) 63%, Mike Gabbard (R) 37%
2006: Mazie Hirono (D) 61%, Bob Hogue (R) 39%
2008: Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) 76%, Roger Evans (R) 20%

This is the more Democratic seat in Hawaii, and Republicans will never have a prayer of winning it no matter what set of circumstances may arise.