State of the Day - Idaho

The Gem State has not given many happy moments to Democrats over the past two decades. Filled with economic libertarians, social conservatives, and very few minorities, it would be hard to create a state more hostile to the Democratic Party. Up until two years ago, it could be hard to find a Democrat in this state. Republicans swept all federal and statewide offices and held huge majorities in the Legislature. However, Idaho Democrats have made a veritable comeback. They made very respectable challenges for the open Governor’s Mansion and First District House seat in 2006. In 2008, they actually won the First District House seat.

Republicans still dominate here, and the House victory in 2008 had more to do with an unappealing Republican than anything else. Republican Governor Butch Otter looks good for reelection. The First District should prove a real barnburner again in 2010. The Democratic moment of glory in Idaho may have already passed.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 67%, Al Gore (D) 28%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 68%, Al Gore (D) 30%
2008: John McCain (R) 61%, Barack Obama (D) 36%

While Obama did very well by recent Democratic standards, Idaho didn’t exactly buy into Barack Obama’s brand of hope, though the eight Democratic caucus goers certainly did. If you are reading this website, you know what the result in Idaho will be in 2012.

Governor – Butch Otter (R)

1998: Dirk Kempthorne (R) 68%, Robert Huntley (D) 29%
2002: Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) 56%, Jerry Brady (D) 42%
2006: Butch Otter (R) 53%, Jerry Brady (D) 44%

Otter continues to sport approval ratings in the mid-60’s, which should cement his reelection in this extremely Republican state. Democrats Jerry Brady and Lane Startin have already announced they won’t run. Boise Mayor David Bieter would be the strongest Democratic candidate. However, given the long odds it seems highly doubtful a decent Democrat will run.

Senior Senator – Larry Craig (R)

1996: Sen. Larry Craig (R) 57%, Walt Minnick (D) 40%
2002: Sen. Larry Craig (R) 65%, Alan Blinken (D) 33%
2008: Jim Risch (R) 58%, Larry LaRocco (D) 34%

Assuming he avoids the pitfalls of public restrooms, Risch should be set for life.

Junior Senator – Mike Crapo (R)

1992: Dirk Kempthorne (R) 57%, Richard Stallings (D) 43%
1998: Mike Crapo (R) 70%, Bill Mauk (D) 28%
2004: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) unopposed

Crapo, whose surname is not pronounced the way an eight year old would pronounce it, is probably the safest member of the Senate.

House 1 – Bill Sali (R)

2004: Rep. Butch Otter (R) 70%, Naomi Preston (D) 31%
2006: Bill Sali (R) 50%, Larry Grant (D) 45%
2008: Walt Minnick (D) 51%, Rep. Bill Sali (R) 49%

Minnick’s win was incredible in this overwhelmingly Republican district, but he owes it to incompetence on the part of Sali. The incumbent is too far to the right even for Idaho, and he seems to enjoy rubbing it in people’s faces. He has left a long trail of alienated people in his wake during his career. Minnick is pretty clearly a one termer unless Sali shows up again, which just may happen as he expressed interest in trying to regain his seat.

Considering Minnick just barely beat Sali in a huge Democratic year, the GOP just needs to nominate a sane individual in order to win. Possibilities include Keith Johnson, State Senator John McGee, State Representatives Mike Moyle and Ken Roberts, and Norm Semanko, current chairman of the State GOP. Any would be significant favorites over Minnick.

House 2 – Mike Simpson (R)

2004: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 71%, Lin Whitworth (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 62%, Jim Hansen (D) 34%
2008: Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 71%, Debbie Holmes (D) 29%

This is what would happen in the First District if Republicans nominated a normal person instead of Helen Chenoweth or Bill Sali. Simpson will only have problems if he creates them for himself, which he doesn’t seem inclined to do.