State of the Day - Illinois

The Prairie State has a long history of some of the roughest, as well as most corrupt, politics in the nation. Generally, the Chicago Democratic machine has battled with mostly Republican Downstate Illinois, with the suburbs holding the balance of power. This is still the story, but the suburbs have shifted to the Democrats making Illinois a solidly Democratic state. This process accelerated with major Republican corruption scandals in the early part of this decade, leading to a Democratic takeover of the Governor’s Mansion (for the first time in thirty years) and the Legislature. Republican foibles nationally have only deepened the GOP problems in the suburbs, where the party has three House seats over the last two cycles.

Corruption in Illinois is hardly a sole dominion of one party, and now a major corruption scandal involving Governor Rod Blagojevich has thrown state politics into some disarray. The state celebrates its favorite son in Barack Obama, but has a major crisis on its hand with how to fill its Senate seat that Blagojevich allegedly tried to sell. This has provided a major opening for Republicans to retake the Governor’s Mansion and the Senate seat in 2010 (or perhaps earlier for the Senate), but it remains unknown what the political fallout will look like.


President – 21 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 55%, George Bush (R) 43%
2004: John Kerry (D) 55%, Pres. George Bush (R) 44%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 62%, John McCain (R) 37%

Quite frankly, I’m a bit surprised Obama didn’t win by more. He did lose Downstate Illinois, but this is all pretty unimportant. Barack Obama will easily carry his home state in 2012.

Governor – Rod Blagojevich (D)

1998: George Ryan (R) 51%, Glenn Poshard (D) 48%
2002: Rod Blagojevich (D) 52%, Jim Ryan (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) 50%, Judy Baar Topinka (R) 39%

If Blagojevich and Alan Keyes faced off in an election, who would win?

Senior Senator – Richard Durbin (D)

1996: Richard Durbin (D) 56%, Al Salvi (R) 41%
2002: Sen. Richard Durbin (D) 60%, Jim Durkin (R) 38%
2008: Sen. Richard Durbin (D) 63%, Steve Sauerberg (R) 33%

Durbin has caught some flack among Democrats for promoting the idea of special election of Obama, which some Democrats fear might give Republicans an opening. That’s about as much political discomfort as the Majority Whip can expect to feel at home. As he’s from Downstate Illinois, you can’t even tar him with the Chicago Machine, either.

Junior Senator – VACANT

1992: Carol Moseley-Braun (D) 53%, Richard Williamson (R) 43%
1998: Peter Fitzgerald (R) 50%, Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D) 47%
2004: Barack Obama (D) 70%, Alan Keyes (R) 27%

All I want for Christmas is a Senate seat.

House 1 – Bobby Rush (D)

2004: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 85%, Raymond Wardingley (R) 15%
2006: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 84%, Jason Tabour (R) 16%
2008: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) 86%, Antoine Members (R) 14%

How might history have been different had Barack Obama succeeded in his primary challenge to Rush in this obscenely Democratic district?

House 2 – Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)

2004: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) 85%, Robert Belin (R) 12%
2008: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) 89%, Anthony Williams (R) 11%

After his outing as the infamous Senate Candidate No. 5, I’m pretty sure that Jackson has no real shot at the Senate in the next two years. I am not sure of whether or not he deserves this or is the victim of a grave injustice.

House 3 – Daniel Lipinski (D)

2004: Daniel Lipinski (D) 73%, Ryan Chlada (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D) 77%, Raymond Wardingley (R) 23%
2008: Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D) 73%, Michael Hawkins (R) 21%

The Chicago Machine rolls on.

House 4 – Luis Gutierrez (D)

2004: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 84%, Tony Cisneros (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 86%, Ann Melichar (R) 14%
2008: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) 81%, Daniel Cunningham (R) 12%

When was first elected, Gutierrez so irritated Democratic leadership that one senior staffer said “he’ll never get off the Banking Committee.” Sixteen years later, he is indeed still on the Financial Services Committee. He may have, in his words, “gotten his rear end kicked around [the House],” but he does the rear end kicking back home.

House 5 – Rahm Emanuel (D)

2004: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) 76%, Bruce Best (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) 78%, Kevin White (R) 22%
2008: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) 74%, Tom Hanson (R) 22%

Emanuel remains in the House as of this writing, but he will soon vacate this seat to become White House Chief of Staff. A special election will presumably take place in the early part of next year, in which the Republicans will have zero chance of winning.

House 6 – Peter Roskam (R)

2004: Rep. Henry Hyde (R) 56%, Christine Cegelis (D) 44%
2006: Peter Roskam (R) 51%, Tammy Duckworth (D) 49%
2008: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) 58%, Jill Morgenthaler (D) 42%

Long though of as good Republican territory, this suburban Chicago seat has trended Democratic enough to where it is now a swing seat. Roskam has done a tremendous job under a difficult political climate, and he will be favored against an inevitably strong challenge in 2010.

House 7 – Danny Davis (D)

2004: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 86%, Antonio Davis-Fairman (R) 14%
2006: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 87%, Charles Hutchinson (R) 13%
2008: Rep. Danny Davis (D) 85%, Steve Miller (R) 15%

If this seat were any more Democratic it would be MSNBC.

House 8 – Melissa Bean (D)

2004: Melissa Bean (D) 52%, Rep. Phil Crane (R) 48%
2006: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) 51%, David McSweeney (R) 44%
2008: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) 61%, Steve Greenberg (R) 39%

Bean has done an amazing job in this Republican leaning Waukegan/Suburban Chicago district. She didn’t face much competition in 2008, but her win was still impressive. Bean should face better competition in the future, and a revival of Republican fortunes could pose major trouble for her, but she has an edge.

House 9 – Jan Schakowsky (D)

2004: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 76%, Kurt Eckhardt (R) 24%
2006: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 75%, Michael Shannon (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) 75%, Michael Younan (R) 22%

Notice that of all these Representatives thus far, you see diversity of every sort imaginable, except that they are all Democrats.

House 10 – Mark Kirk (R)

2004: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 64%, Lee Goodman (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 53%, Dan Seals (D) 47%
2008: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 53%, Dan Seals (D) 47%

Kirk has performed a political miracle by keeping this Democratic leaning Waukegan/Evanston/Northern Chicago Suburbs seat through two Republican disasters in a row. Kirk continues to be a major Democratic target, especially if the Democrats find a more appealing candidate than Dan Seals. Even so, you can see why Democrats fear Kirk running in a special election for Senate.

House 11 – Jerry Weller (R)

2004: Rep. Jerry Weller (R) 59%, Tari Renner (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Jerry Weller (R) 55%, John Pavich (D) 45%
2008: Debbie Halvorson (D) 58%, Marty Ozinga (R) 35%

Republicans had more than enough problems nationally. They certainly didn’t need the internal meltdown they suffered in this district, especially since they ended up with an awful candidate. This Joliet to Bloomington Northern Illinois seat is prime swing territory, but it is also the sort of seat Halvorson should be able to hold onto. She’s a solid favorite for reelection.

House 12 – Jerry Costello (D)

2004: Rep. Jerry Costello (D) 69%, Erin Zweigart (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Jerry Costello (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jerry Costello (D) 71%, Tim Richardson (R) 25%

Costello has entrenched himself in this Democratic leaning East St. Louis seat. He needs to find himself a better anti-baldness technique.

House 13 – Judy Biggert (R)

2004: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 65%, Gloria Schor Andersen (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 58%, Joseph Shannon (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 54%, Scott Harper (D) 44%

Biggert’s performance has dropped to the level that she can expect a serious challenge. This Naperville centered district still leans Republican, however, and Biggert will be a tough out.

House 14 – Bill Foster (D)

2004: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) 69%, Ruben Zamora (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) 60%, Jonathan Laesch (D) 40%
2008 special: Bill Foster (D) 53%, Jim Oberweis (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Bill Foster (D) 58%, Jim Oberweis (R) 42%

I don’t know why the Republicans felt so safe here. Yes, this Aurora based seat leans Republican, but Republicans have lost quite a number of similar seats over the last two cycles. There certainly was not enough room for error under the circumstances to nominate a perennial loser like Jim Oberweis. This should be one of the most competitive districts in the nation in 2010, assuming Republicans find a semi-competent candidate this time. Even so, Foster has established himself as a better than even money bet to hold on.

House 15 – Tim Johnson (R)

2004: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 61%, David Gill (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 58%, David Gill (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Tim Johnson (R) 64%, Steve Cox (D) 36%

After surviving the Republican wipeout with ease, we can call Johnson safe in this Republican leaning Bloomington/Champaign/East Illinois seat.

House 16 – Don Manzullo (R)

2004: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 69%, John Kutsch (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 64%, Richard Auman (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) 61%, Bob Abboud (D) 36%

Despite hatching the bright idea to foist Alan Keyes upon the people of Illinois, Manzullo has had no problems in this Republican leaning Rockford based seat. He can’t afford to fall asleep, but it’s hard to see him losing the seat.

House 17 – Phil Hare (D)

2004: Rep. Lane Evans (D) 61%, Andrea Lane Zinga (R) 39%
2006: Phil Hare (D) 57%, Andrea Lane Zinga (R) 43%
2008: Rep. Phil Hare (D) unopposed

On paper, this bizarrely shaped, Democratic leaning Decatur/Springfield/Western Illinois seat shouldn’t be hopeless for Republicans. In reality, they’ve never had any success here and appear to have given up on Hare without even trying.

House 18 – Ray LaHood (R)

2004: Rep. Ray LaHood (R) 70%, Steve Waterworth (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Ray LaHood (R) 67%, Steve Waterworth (D) 33%
2008: Aaron Schock (R) 59%, Colleen Callahan (D) 38%

Democrats justifiably talked up their chances in this Republican leaning, Peoria based Western Illinois seat. However, nothing came close to happening for them even in a big Democratic year with an Illinoisan at the top of the ticket. Schock most likely has a long career ahead of him.

House 19 – John Shimkus (R)

2004: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 69%, Tim Bagwell (D) 31%
2006: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 61%, Danny Stover (D) 39%
2008: Rep. John Shimkus (R) 65%, Daniel Davis (D) 33%

I can devise scenarios in which Democrats compete for this mostly Republican Southern Illinois seat. None of them involve the popular Shimkus running.