State of the Day - Indiana

Long one of the most Republican bastions in the nation, the Hoosier State has not always played true to form. Democrats controlled the Governor’s Mansion from 1989 to 2005. Popular moderate Democrat Evan Bayh has entrenched himself in the Senate, and three conservative Democrats won House seats in 2006. The mold really broke in 2008. Even as Republican Mitch Daniels won reelection easily, Indiana voted for Barack Obama, who has very little in common with the moderate to conservative Democrats who have succeeded here. Even in a Democratic year against a Republican uniquely unsuited to Indiana, this was an astounding result.

Republicans face an uphill battle in trying to regain ground in 2010. Bayh looks untouchable and none of the Democratic House members will be easy targets. The Republican priority at this point should be to build their infrastructure to the point where their Presidential nominee won’t lose this state in 2012.


President – 11 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 57%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 60%, John Kerry (D) 39%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 50%, John McCain (R) 49%

Even with a sizable national victory, we would not have expected Obama to win Indiana. We wouldn’t even expect him to get close enough for any “Illinois Neighbor” advantage to put him over the top. In my mind, McCain’s problem in Indiana came primarily from his loud opposition to agricultural subsidies. The state is one of the top five ethanol producers, which makes it a very poor match for the anti-ethanol McCain. The Republican underperformed what you’d expect a Republican to do, even accounting for the diminished performance nationally, in the top nine ethanol producing states, which are clustered in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains states. Indeed, McCain won most of the rural counties in Indiana, but with drastically reduced margins from George W. Bush in 2004 and even Mitch Daniels in 2008. Combine that with big Democratic turnout in Indianapolis, Gary, and South Bend, and you can see how this happened.

The question moving forward is whether this is a fluke. My personal thought is that while Obama has enough systemic advantages here to do better than Gore or Kerry ever did, he probably would have lost to a candidate who had a bit more appeal in rural Indiana. This is the single most likely Obama state to flip to the GOP in 2012, and I would rate the state as leaning Republican. Needless to say, the Republican has no prayer of winning without Indiana.

Governor – Mitch Daniels (R)

2000: Gov. Frank O’Bannon (D) 57%, David McIntosh (R) 42%
2004: Mitch Daniels (R) 53%, Gov. Joe Kernan (D) 45%
2008: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 58%, Jill Thompson (D) 40%

Heading into 2008, Daniels seemed unpopular and vulnerable. Thus, his huge win was a bit surprising, especially since John McCain lost the state. Daniels cannot run for reelection in 2012.

Senior Senator – Richard Lugar (R)

1994: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) 67%, Jim Jontz (D) 31%
2000: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) 67%, David L. Johnson (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Richard Lugar (R) unopposed

When the state chairman of the opposing party calls Lugar “beloved”, you know Lugar will keep this seat as long as he wants it. Lugar probably even managed to increase his standing among Democrats by allowing Barack Obama to expropriate Lugar’s signature achievement in preventing nuclear proliferation.

Junior Senator – Evan Bayh (D)

1992: Sen. Dan Coats (R) 57%, Joseph Hogsett (D) 41%
1998: Evan Bayh (D) 64%, Paul Helmke (R) 35%
2004: Sen. Evan Bayh (D) 62%, Marvin Scott (R) 37%

The moderate Bayh remains very popular in Indiana. A very strong Republican candidate could potentially push him to the wall, but at this point none seems to be forthcoming.

House 1 – Peter Visclosky (D)

2004: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 68%, Mark Leyva (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 70%, Mark Leyva (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) 71%, Mark Leyva (R) 27%

Under the right circumstances, a Republican win in this mostly Democratic Gary based seat is possible. It’s clear that Visclosky vs. Mark Leyva is not the right formula for the GOP, however.

House 2 – Joe Donnelly (D)

2004: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 54%, Joe Donnelly (D) 45%
2006: Joe Donnelly (D) 54%, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 46%
2008: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) 67%, Luke Puckett (R) 30%

This Northern Indiana seat, which stretches from Elkhart and South Bend all the way down to Kokomo, leans Republican. Donnelly, however, is an excellent fit and won a smashing reelection in 2008. He is likely to hold on for quite a while.

House 3 – Mark Souder (R)

2004: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 69%, Maria Parra (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 54%, Thomas Hayhurst (D) 46%
2008: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 55%, Mike Montagano (D) 40%

Souder is not exactly setting the world on fire here. Luckily for him, this seat is impossible for a Democrat to win.

House 4 – Steve Buyer (R)

2004: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 69%, David Sanders (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 62%, David Sanders (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Steve Buyer (R) 60%, Nels Ackerman (D) 40%

Buyer’s results have suffered along with the Republican Party, but he will never see any real danger here.

House 5 – Dan Burton (R)

2004: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 72%, Katherine Carr (D) 26%
2006: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 65%, Katherine Carr (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Dan Burton (R) 66%, Mary Ruley (D) 34%

This is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. Burton actually runs a bit behind a generic Republican.

House 6 – Mike Pence (R)

2004: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 67%, Melina Fox (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 60%, Barry Welsh (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Mike Pence (R) 64%, Barry Welsh (D) 33%

This one is much too red for the Democrats to ever worry about taking.

House 7 – Andre Carson (D)

2004: Rep. Julia Carson (D) 54%, Andy Horning (R) 44%
2006: Rep. Julia Carson (D) 54%, Eric Dickerson (R) 46%
2008 special: Andre Carson (D) 54%, Jon Elrod (R) 43%
2008: Rep. Andre Carson (D) 65%, Gabrielle Campo (R) 35%

This mostly Democratic Indianapolis seat saw some activity due to the perennially anemic performances of Julia Carson. With her death and the accession of her much more energetic grandson, Andre, this seat should be off Republican target lists.

House 8 – Brad Ellsworth (D)

2004: Rep. John Hostettler (R) 53%, Jon Jennings (D) 45%
2006: Brad Ellsworth (D) 61%, Rep. John Hostettler (R) 39%
2008: Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) 65%, Greg Goode (R) 35%

This Terra Haute/Evansville/Southwest Indiana seat is mostly Republican. Ellsworth is very appealing and not very liberal. He could conceivably have a very tough time if Obama struggles and provides an anchor to which a Republican could try to tie Ellsworth. However, his two impressive wins make him a favorite.

House 9 – Baron Hill (D)

2004: Mike Sodrel (R) 49%, Rep. Baron Hill (D) 49%
2006: Baron Hill (D) 50%, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) 45%
2008: Rep. Baron Hill (D) 58%, Mike Sodrel (R) 38%

Sodrel has run four times in a row and only won this mostly Republican Bloomington/Jefferson/Southeast Indiana seat once, and then only by 1,425 votes. He can give up now. Like Ellsworth, Hill still needs to prove himself in a difficult climate against an opponent better than Sodrel. This is one district in which candidate recruitment will be very important for Republicans. The raw materials are there to oust Hill, but it won’t be as easy it might look.