The Sunflower State has developed a very distinct brand of three party politics. The majority Republicans have divided into two nearly equal and opposing camps: conservatives and moderates. When the party nominates hard right conservatives, the moderates often don’t go along and defect in large enough numbers to allow Democrats to win. Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius won her office in this way, and Democrat Nancy Boyda won a term in the House in 2006 when moderate Republicans abandoned their party. When Kansas Republicans stay united on a candidate however, they win easily. Thus, the state is never close in Presidential elections and Democrats almost never win when the Republicans nominate moderates.
As ever, Democratic chances here depend on the Republicans. This could cause major trouble for them in 2010. With Sebelius term limited, Republicans look good to replace her with Senator Sam Brownback, a conservative who can keep the Republicans united. Democrats can only hope that Republicans have a civil war in finding nominees to replace Brownback or the two Representatives that are running for the Senate, but that is quite a long shot.
President – 6 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 58%, Al Gore (D) 37%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 62%, John Kerry (D) 37%
2008: John McCain (R) 57%, Barack Obama (D) 42%
There were some suggestions by wide eyed Democrats during the campaign that Obama could compete here because his mother’s family came from Kansas. Obama did do better than Gore or Kerry here, but no better than you’d expect given that he ran ahead of them overall. Kansas will go safely to the Republican in 2012.
Governor – Kathleen Sebelius (D)
1998: Gov. Bill Graves (R) 73%, Tom Sawyer (D) 23%
2002: Kathleen Sebelius (D) 53%, Tim Shallenburger (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) 58%, Jim Barnett (R) 40%
Sebelius cannot run for reelection. As usual, Democratic chances depend on Republicans engaging in internecine warfare and nominating a conservative that moderates will not support. Senator Sam Brownback, the almost certain Republican nominee, minimizes the chances of that happening. He is indeed a conservative, but he has already proven that he can win moderate Republican voters. With him in the race and the Republican Party united, Democrats have only a slim chance of holding the Governor’s Mansion.
Senior Senator – Sam Brownback (R)
1992: Sen. Bob Dole (R) 63%, Gloria O’Dell (D) 31%
1996 special: Sam Brownback (R) 54%, Jill Docking (D) 43%
1998: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) 65%, Paul Feleciano Jr. (D) 32%
2004: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) 69%, Lee Jones (D) 27%
Brownback is retiring to run for Governor. Republicans look to have a primary between Representatives Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. This would be classic Kansas primary, with the party dividing between the moderate Moran and the conservative Tiahrt, with both starting off on equal ground. Democrats may have some hope if Tiahrt wins and cannot keep moderates with the party for the general election. However, Democrats have not elected a Senator in Kansas for seventy years and this isn’t a propitious time for them to start.
Junior Senator – Pat Roberts (R)
1996: Pat Roberts (R) 62%, Sally Thompson (D) 34%
2002: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) unopposed
2008: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 60%, Jim Slattery (D) 36%
Democrats were oddly talking up Jim Slattery’s chances during the summer, but this predictably came to nothing. Roberts is an affable moderate Republican, making him a perfect fit for Kansas. Barring a wide stance or something similar, he will keep this seat as long as he wants it.
House 1 – Jerry Moran (R)
2004: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) 79%, John Doll (D) 20%
2008: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) 82%, James Bordonaro (D) 13%
Moran is leaving this seat to run for the House. This is one of the most Republican districts in the nation and won’t change party hands. As of now, the Republican primary looks like a contest between State Senator Tim Huelskamp and Rob Wasinger, who used to serve as Chief of Staff to Sam Brownback.
House 2 – Nancy Boyda (D)
2004: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) 56%, Nancy Boyda (D) 41%
2006: Nancy Boyda (D) 51%, Rep. Jim Ryun (R) 47%
2008: Lynn Jenkins (R) 51%, Rep. Nancy Boyda (D) 46%
Boyda’s fate was sealed the moment moderate Lynn Jenkins beat polarizing conservative Jim Ryun in the Republican primary. This Lawrence/Manhattan/Topeka/East Kansas seat is clearly not safe, but it is quite Republican. Jenkins will probably see strong competition in 2010, but as a moderate who can keep the GOP together she will be favored.
House 3 – Dennis Moore (D)
2004: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 55%, Kris Kobach (R) 43%
2006: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 65%, Chuck Ahner (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 56%, Nick Jordan (R) 40%
Moore decided to run for reelection in the House in 2010 rather than run for the Senate, a huge break for Democrats in this Republican leaning Kansas City/Lawrence/Overland Park seat. Moore has never faced a real Republican wave, so he could fall if a big anti-Democrat, anti-Obama backlash hits in 2010. I’m not betting against him, however.
House 4 – Todd Tiahrt (R)
2004: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 66%, Michael Kinard (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 64%, Garth McGinn (D) 34%
2008: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 63%, Donald Betts (D) 32%
Tiahrt is giving up this seat to run for the Senate. Even without him, this district is safe for Republicans.
Monday, December 22, 2008
State of the Day - Kansas
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2 comments:
The only thing this Kansan would add is that there was a reason folks were talking up Slattery's chances mid-summer: A poll was commissioned that showed a generic lead for a Republican Senate candidate at just 1 percent....and Slattery started off the race only 9 points down.
'Course, that was before Roberts spent millions on TV smacking Slattery around. Looking at it from above and without any of that perspective, I understand why you might say it was odd folks were talking Slattery up.
I'm not familiar with the first poll you mention, but a poll with a generic Republican is irrelevant when the actual race involves a well known incumbent like Roberts.
I'm familiar with the 9 point poll, but that's not exactly a tight race. That looked more like statistical noise than anything, and I never believe Slattery had a shot.
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