State of the Day - Kentucky

The Bluegrass State has always been half Appalachia, half Dixie. It practiced slavery, but did not secede during the Civil War, instead “maintaining neutrality”. It shares the South’s social conservatism and tendency toward populism, but has fewer blacks. It has traditionally been an agricultural and blue collar state, but maintained a historic preference for Democrats. Republicans have gained here over the past two decades and in many ways have continued to gain even as the party has retrenched nationally. Bill Clinton won Kentucky twice, but Democrats have not come close since. Republicans have the two Senate seats and a majority of the House delegation. Democrats are still competitive on the state level, however. They maintain the State House and won the Governor’s Mansion in 2007 over an ethically scarred incumbent. Republicans have the upper hand here, but state politics is still a close affair.

For 2010, Democrats will hope to gain a major breakthrough and defeat uberconservative Republican Senator Jim Bunning, which they nearly did in 2004. The state’s six Representatives all look safe, so we can expect all eyes in Kentucky on the Senate race.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 57%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 60%, John Kerry (D) 40%
2008: John McCain (R) 57%, Barack Obama (D) 41%

Some early polls actually showed Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in Kentucky, and indeed she beat the snot out of Barack Obama in the state’s primary. This is a state with relatively few blacks and a relatively uneducated and socially conservative population. In other words, Kentucky is especially designed to be immune to the appeal of Obama. There is enough of a Democratic base for Kentucky to go blue in a huge Obama landslide, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Governor – Steven L. Beshear (D)

1999: Gov. Paul Patton (D) 61%, Peppy Martin (R) 22%
2003: Ernie Fletcher (R) 55%, Ben Chandler (D) 45%
2007: Steven L. Beshear (D) 59%, Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) 41%

Beshear won the Governor’s Mansion primarily because Republican predecessor Ernie Fletcher got himself in major ethical trouble. To this point, Beshear has struggled, currently checking in with a terrible 39% approval rating. He hasn’t committed any huge gaffe that would preclude his reelection, but he needs to get it in gear, especially in a state where Republicans can certainly win. One year into his term, Beshear is turning himself into a big underdog in 2011.

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

1996: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 55%, Steven L. Beshear (D) 43%
2002: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 65%, Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35%
2008: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 53%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 47%

The Minority Leader remains a polarizing figure, and it is not surprising that he ran behind John McCain. Between the unlimited funds he can raise and the state’s conservative tendencies, he’ll still remain favored as long as he runs.

Junior Senator – Jim Bunning (R)

1992: Sen. Wendell Ford (D) 63%, David Williams (R) 36%
1998: Jim Bunning (R) 50%, Scotty Baesler (D) 49%
2004: Sen. Jim Bunning (R) 51%, Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49%

Political neophyte Darlene Fitzgerald is the only announced Democrat in the race to challenge Bunning, but Democrats will probably want somebody with a little more heft to seriously challenge for the seat. The race begins leaning toward Bunning, but he will need to avoid the bizarre and offensive behavior that nearly doomed his 2004 reelection.

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

2004: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 67%, Billy Cartwright (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 60%, Tom Barlow (R) 40%
2008: Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) 64%, Heather Ryan (D) 36%

This is a safe Republican district.

House 2 – Ron Lewis (R)

2004: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) 68%, Adam Smith (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) 55%, Mike Weaver (D) 45%
2008: Brett Guthrie (R) 53%, David Boswell (D) 47%

This is a solidly Republican district, but Democrats took a shot at it this year when it came open in a big Democratic year. If they couldn’t win it in those circumstances they probably never will. Guthrie may get some competition in 2010, but he should easily survive.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

2004: Rep. Anne Northup (R) 60%, Tony Miller (D) 38%
2006: John Yarmuth (D) 51%, Rep. Anne Northup (R) 48%
2008: Rep. John Yarmuth (D) 59%, Anne Northup (R) 41%

This tossup Louisville seat did exactly as expected, flipping to the Democrats as they surged nationally. Yarmuth clearly made a good impression in this district, which has trended Democratic as have most urban and suburban districts nationally. This district should continue to see vigorous competition, but Yarmuth has a clear edge.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

2004: Geoff Davis (R) 54%, Nick Clooney (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 52%, Ken Lucas (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 63%, Michael Kelly (D) 37%

I can’t believe a Democrat held this seat from 1999-2005. Davis is safe.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

2004: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) 74%, Kenneth Stepp (D) 26%
2008: Rep. Harold Rogers (R) unopposed

This Pikeville to Somerset Southeast Kentucky seat is not totally safe for Republicans, but it is totally safe for Rogers.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

2004: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 59%, Tom Buford (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 65%, Jon Larson (R) 35%

This mostly Republican Frankfort/Lexington seat really shouldn’t be electing Chandler, but he has a great Kentucky name, a moderate record, and a great connection with the district. Chandler should and probably will see stiffer competition, but the seat will lean toward the Democrats as long as the locally popular Chandler runs.