State of the Day - Louisiana

The Pelican State has a political culture totally unlike anything in any other state. It goes way beyond the state’s celebrated tolerance for corruption and roguish behavior, which actually may just be changing with the rise of Governor Bobby Jindal and the fall of Representative William Jefferson. More distinctly, the state celebrates the individual politician, especially the flamboyant ones, at the expense of political parties. Helped in large part by the state’s distinctive “jungle primary” system, abolished for federal races in 2008, party structures languished. Intraparty warfare and party switching rule the day, and incumbents almost never lose. Like all the Deep South states, it has racially polarized politics. Blacks form a liberal base, but most whites are social conservatives. Local Democrats can and do succeed with conservative profiles, but the state is out of reach for national Democrats, especially after Katrina led to a mass emigration of blacks.

Katrina also seemed to spark a revolution in public policy. Reformers have arisen from time to time, but never succeeded and ended up losing to non-reformers like Huey and Earl Long and more recently Edwin Edwards. Louisiana seems to have made moves more sensible public servants, personified in the form of the latest reformist, Governor Bobby Jindal. Corrupt Democratic Representative William Jefferson lost his heavily Democratic House seat as well. Democrats should win that seat back in 2010 and may have a shot at defeating Senator David “Sinner” Vitter, but the more important issue, whether Louisiana will continue its march to a sane political system, will only become clearer in time.


President – 9 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 53%, Al Gore (D) 45%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 57%, John Kerry (D) 42%
2008: John McCain (R) 59%, Barack Obama (D) 40%

Louisiana slipped away from Democrats’ grasp as the national party became associated with non-Southern social liberals. The reduction in black population after Katrina accelerated this trend. Indeed, McCain actually did better here than George W. Bush ever did despite a much poorer national showing. Louisiana should be off target lists, at least for 2012.

Governor – Bobby Jindal (R)

1999: Gov. Mike Foster (R) 62%, William Jefferson (D) 30%
2003: Kathleen Babineaux Blanco (D) 52%, Bobby Jindal (R) 48%*
2007: Bobby Jindal (R) 54%, Walter Boasso (D) 17%

*Runoff

Every so often, Louisiana puts a reformer in the Governor’s Mansion who promises to end the reign of the rogues that dates back to Huey Long. David Treen in 1979 and Buddy Roemer in 1987 entered office to great promise and acclaim, but utterly failed and ended up losing their office to Edwin Edwards, the ultimate non-reformer.

Jindal is trying to succeed where others have failed, and thus far he has. His technocratic, problem solving approach has won raves, to the tune of an insane 75% approval rating. He has received national notice as the “Republican Obama” and 2012 Presidential candidate. Realistically, he won’t be able to run for the White House if he maintains his desire to run for reelection in 2011. If he stays in the Governor’s Mansion, he won’t see serious opposition based on what we’ve seen so far.

Senior Senator – Mary Landrieu (D)

1996: Mary Landrieu (D) 50%, Woody Jenkins (R) 50%*
2002: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 52%, Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48%*
2008: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 52%, John Kennedy (R) 46%

*Runoff

Republicans have aimed at Landrieu ever since she won her seat by 5,788 votes in the 1996 runoff. They thought they had a good shot in 2008, especially after the emigration of significant numbers of African-Americans. However, a totally disorganized and anemic Republican campaign and a good Democratic year ended Republican hopes. Landrieu is an improbable three-term Senator and will probably face stiff competition again in six years. She could go down under the right circumstances, but Louisiana does not like to kick out incumbents. She will be tough to beat.

Junior Senator – David Vitter (R)

1992: Sen. John Breaux (D) 73%, Lyle Stockstill (R) 8%
1998: Sen. John Breaux (D) 64%, Jim Donelon (R) 32%
2004: David Vitter (R) 51%, Chris John (D) 29%

When Vitter revealed (sort of) in July 2007 that he had used the services of the DC Madam, he greatly increased the odds of a serious challenge in 2010. Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (Mary’s brother) has expressed interest in running. He has a good profile for Louisiana, name recognition, and should have no problem raising money. He’d be a tough candidate. Even so, Vitter has somehow (this is Louisiana, after all) maintained high favorability marks and remains favored for reelection in this increasingly conservative state.

House 1 – Steve Scalise (R)

2004: Bobby Jindal (R) 78%, Roy Armstrong (D) 7%
2006: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) 88%, David Gereighty (D) 7%
2008 special: Steve Scalise (R) 75%, Gilda Reed (D) 23%
2008: Rep. Steve Scalise (R) 66%, Jim Harlan (D) 34%

This is an overwhelmingly Republican district where Democrats have no chance. Despite being home to such bizarre characters as David Duke and Monica Monica in recent years, the seat has been a sort of springboard. The previous three incumbents, Bob Livingston, David Vitter, and Bobby Jindal all moved on to greater (or at least bigger) things.

House 2 – William Jefferson (D)

2004: Rep. William Jefferson (D) 79%, Art Schwertz (R) 21%
2006: Rep. William Jefferson (D) 30%, Joseph Lavigne (R) 13%*
2008: Anh Cao (R) 50%, Rep. William Jefferson (D) 47%

*All party primary. Jefferson defeated fellow Democrat Karen Carter in the runoff 57-43.

Very rarely do I agree with Nate Silver, but he was right on the money here. This was a good result for Democrats. The party now has a large enough majority in the House to where his vote was not worth carrying around Jefferson’s frozen carcass. As for 2010, if I were Cao I’d stick to renting in DC.

House 3 – Charlie Melancon (D)

2004: Charlie Melancon (D) 50%, Billy Tauzin III (R) 50%*
2006: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) 55%, Craig Romero (R) 40%
2008: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) unopposed

*Runoff

This Southeast Louisiana seat leans Republican, all else equal, but Melancon’s incumbent status and conservative record count for more than party in Louisiana. He first won this seat by 569 votes, but he is now entrenched and safe.

House 4 – Jim McCrery (R)

2004: Rep. Jim McCrery (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jim McCrery (R) 57%, Artis Cash (D) 17%
2008: John Fleming (R) 48%, Paul Carmouche (D) 47%

Democrats probably would have won this mostly Republican Shreveport based seat had the election not been postponed until December by Hurricane Gustav. More than twice as many people voted in the Democratic primary runoff than the Republican runoff in November. Fleming edged out a very narrow victory in the low turnout December election. Given the odd circumstances Democrats may try again here, and certainly any winner who fails to get a majority is vulnerable. However, Louisiana does not like to evict incumbents, and given the district’s nature Fleming will have an edge.

House 5 – Rodney Alexander (R)

2004: Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) 59%, Zelma Blakes (D) 25%
2006: Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) 68%, Gloria Williams Hearn (D) 29%
2008: Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) unopposed

Alexander somehow managed to win this overwhelmingly Republican district as a Democrat, which is quite impressive even for Louisiana. His life is much easier as a Republican.

House 6 – Don Cazayoux (D)

2004: Rep. Richard Baker (R) 72%, Rufus Craig (D) 19%
2006: Rep. Richard Baker (R) unopposed
2008 special: Don Cazayoux (D) 49%, Woody Jenkins (R) 46%
2008: Bill Cassidy (R) 48%, Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) 40%

This Baton Rouge based seat is very difficult for Democrats, but not impossible. In fact, Democrats won a 2008 special election here. Cazayoux owes his November defeat to the Independent candidacy of African-American State Rep. Michael Jackson, whom Cazayoux defeated in the special primary. Jackson took 12%, almost all of it African-American which would otherwise have gone to the Democrat. This may be a point of personal pride for Jackson, but otherwise I have a hard time seeing what positive purpose he accomplished. Cazayoux, or a similar candidate, may be able to take back this seat without the interference of Jackson. Otherwise, Cassidy should roll to reelection.

House 7 – Charles Boustany (R)

2004: Charles Boustany (R) 55%, Willie Mount (D) 45%*
2006: Rep. Charles Boustany (R) 71%, Mike Stagg (D) 29%
2008: Rep. Charles Boustany (R) 62%, Don Cravins (D) 34%

*Runoff

This Lafayette to Lake Charles Southwest Louisiana seat is mostly Republican, but it can and until recently did elect conservative Louisiana Democrats. However, it is not going to toss out Boustany.