State of the Day - Maine

The Pine Tree State (how appropriate for Christmas!) is probably the least trendy state in terms of voting patterns. Traditionally Republican, it never voted for Franklin Roosevelt. For years, many of its voting patterns went against the national pattern. Like the rest of New England (and the nation in this decade), it has trended generally toward the Democrats. It is not an overwhelmingly Democratic state and it maintains some distinction. It likes third party candidates. This was Ross Perot’s best state and it elected Independent Angus King as Governor in 1994 and 1998. To this day, it consistently gives a higher percentage of its vote to third party candidates than any state. As the nation as turned toward straight ticket voting, Maine has retained a high level of ticket splitting. As Democrats have won most offices in Maine, its two liberal Republican Senators remain its most popular politicians.

Maine has an open Governor’s race in 2010 that should be among the less predictable of the cycle. Democrats should have no problem keeping the House seats, but Maine will remain interesting.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 49%, George Bush (R) 44%
2004: John Kerry (D) 54%, George Bush (R) 45%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 58%, John McCain (R) 40%

Maine certainly leans Democratic in Presidential races, but it could go Republican if the GOP won a victory similar to Obama’s in 2008. The state gives two electoral votes to the statewide winner, and one vote to the winner in each Congressional district. McCain actually went after the slightly more Republican 2nd district in Northern Maine, but it was to no avail. The two districts really aren’t that different, and the Republican would need to come within about a point statewide to pick up that vote. McCain was never going to get anywhere near there, and barring disaster the next Republican nominee won’t either.

Governor – John Baldacci (D)

1998: Gov. Angus King (D) 59%, James Longley (R) 19%*
2002: John Baldacci (D) 47%, Peter Cianchette (R) 41%
2006: Gov. John Baldacci (D) 38%, Chandler Woodcock (R) 30%

Baldacci cannot run for reelection. Democratic Attorney General Steven Rowe is the favorite to replace him, given the state’s Democratic lean and his name recognition as a statewide officeholder. One cannot count the Republicans out, however.

Senior Senator – Olympia Snowe (R)

1994: Olympia Snowe (R) 60%, Thomas Andrews (R) 36%
2000: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) 69%, Mark Lawrence (R) 31%
2006: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) 74%, Jean Hay Bright (D) 21%

Conventional wisdom says Snowe is unbeatable in Maine. In this case, conventional wisdom is correct.

Junior Senator – Susan Collins (R)

1996: Susan Collins (R) 49%, Joseph Brennan (D) 44%
2002: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 58%, Chellie Pingree (D) 42%
2008: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 61%, Tom Allen (D) 39%

Collins has long been considered the more vulnerable of Maine’s two liberal Republican Senators. After her strong win against good competition in a Democratic sweep, it may be time to class her with Olympia Snowe.

House 1 – Tom Allen (D)

2004: Rep. Tom Allen (D) 60%, Charles Summers (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Tom Allen (D) 61%, Darlene Curley (R) 31%
2008: Chellie Pingree (D) 55%, Charles Summers (R) 45%

This Democratic leaning district includes Augusta, Portland, and the northern fourth of the state. Given the climate, Pingree’s win was not particularly impressive. She’ll continue to be favored, but it might be worth it for Republicans to challenge her.

House 2 – Michael Michaud (D)

2004: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 58%, Brian Hamel (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 71%, Laurence D’Amboise (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 67%, John Frary (R) 33%

This district includes Bangor, Lewiston, Waterville, and the northern three fourths of the state. Like the First it merely leans Democratic, but Michaud has entrenched himself to the point of safety.