State of the Day - Maryland

The Old Line State consists of large numbers of African-Americans, government workers, and upscale liberals. This makes it one of the most Democratic states in the Union. Republicans have generally been limited to pockets in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore. The GOP tried to make a push early in this decade, winning the Governor’s Mansion in 2002 for the first time in forty years. That effort has been astoundingly rejected. Democrat Martin O’Malley took back the Governor’s Mansion in 2006. In 2008, Republicans even managed to lose their stronghold House seat on the Eastern Shore.

As Democratic as Maryland is, Republicans have an opening in 2010. They should have an excellent chance of retaking the Eastern Shore House seat. Governor Martin O’Malley has struggled badly and may be vulnerable himself. Republicans have a chance for a big election cycle, if only in the relative sense.


President – 10 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 57%, George Bush (R) 40%
2004: John Kerry (D) 56%, Pres. George Bush (R) 43%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 62%, John McCain (R) 37%

Forget about it.

Governor – Martin O’Malley (D)

1998: Gov. Parris Glendening (D) 55%, Ellen Sauerbrey (R) 45%
2002: Robert Ehrlich (R) 52%, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) 48%
2006: Martin O’Malley (D) 53%, Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) 46%

O’Malley is in serious trouble, with a 34% approval rating. After already having pushed through tax increases and facing continued fiscal trouble, O’Malley will find that it probably won’t get better. Robert Ehrlich got buried in the Democratic tsunami of 2006, but generally had better favorable numbers than O’Malley does now. He might even be favored to beat O’Malley in 2010.

If he passes, the overwhelming Democratic nature of the state may just save O’Malley. State Senator Andy Harris has expressed interest, but he couldn’t even win the solidly Republican First District House seat. Mike Pappas may be a last resort option for the GOP.

Senior Senator – Barbara Mikulski (D)

1992: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 71%, Alan Keyes (R) 29%
1998: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 71%, Ross Z. Pierpont (R) 30%
2004: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 65%, E.J. Pipkin (R) 34%

This may be the most uncompetitive race of 2010.

Junior Senator – Ben Cardin (D)

1994: Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D) 59%, Bill Brock (R) 41%
2000: Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D) 63%, Paul H. Rappaport (R) 37%
2006: Ben Cardin (D) 54%, Michael Steele (R) 44%

Cardin is basically a generic Democrat, but that is more than enough here. He’ll never get a closer race than his 2006 victory.

House 1 – Wayne Gilchrest (R)

2004: Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R) 76%, Kostas Alexakis (D) 24%
2006: Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R) 69%, Jim Corwin (D) 31%
2008: Frank Kratovil (D) 49%, Andy Harris (R) 48%

This should be a safe Republican district, but events conspired to change the normal way of things. The very conservative Harris ousted the moderate Gilchrest in the primary. The incensed incumbent then turned around and endorsed Democrat Kratovil. Combined with some Harris missteps and big Democratic year, Kratovil edged out a narrow plurality win. I’m not totally writing off Kratovil, but this seat definitely leans to the Republicans in 2010.

House 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

2004: Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 67%, Jane Brooks (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 69%, Jimmy Mathis (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Dutch Ruppersberber (D) 72%, Richard Matthews (R) 25%

This suburban Baltimore seat would be tough for Republicans under the best of circumstances. It will be downright impossible to defeat Ruppersberger.

House 3 – John Sarbanes (D)

2004: Rep. Ben Cardin (D) 63%, Bob Duckworth (R) 34%
2006: John Sarbanes (D) 64%, John White (R) 34%
2008: Rep. John Sarbanes (D) 70%, Tom Harris (R) 30%

Sarbanes has cinched this mostly Democratic Baltimore/Annapolis district. He will probably run for statewide office someday.

House 4 – Donna Edwards (D)

2004: Rep. Albert Wynn (D) 75%, John McKinnis (R) 20%
2006: Rep. Albert Wynn (D) 81%, Michael Starkman (R) 19%
2008 special: Donna Edwards (D) 80%, Peter James (R) 18%
2008: Rep. Donna Edwards (D) 86%, Peter James (R) 13%

All you need to know here is that Wynn and his 85 ADA rating were too conservative for this district. He quit in petulance after Edwards defeated him in the primary.

House 5 – Steny Hoyer (D)

2004: Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) 69%, Brad Jewitt (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) 74%, Collins Bailey (R) 24%

The Majority Leader is safe in this mostly Democratic Southern Maryland district.

House 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R)

2004: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 67%, Kenneth Bosley (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 59%, Andrew Duck (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 58%, Jennifer Dougherty (D) 39%

This is an overwhelmingly Republican district. Bartlett has slipped enough to where Democrats might take a look, but it won’t amount to anything.

House 7 – Elijah Cummings (D)

2004: Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) 73%, Tony Salazar (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) 80%, Michael Hargadon (R) 19%

Michael Hargadon wrote me a comment blasting me for dismissing his chances. Mr. Hargadon, feel free to apologize in the comments or at beyondthepolls@gmail.com

House 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D)

2004: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) 75%, Chuck Floyd (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) 77%, Jeffrey Stein (R) 22%
2008: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) 75%, Steve Hudson (R) 22%

The Lions will win the Super Bowl before the Republicans win this one.