State of the Day - Massachusetts

The Bay State is so Democratic that it has become a punch line for those wishing to make liberal jokes. Massachusetts is hardly a homogenous state, but its voting patterns tend to be. Farmers in Western Massachusetts, blue collar workers in South Boston, minorities in Dorchester, and academics in Cambridge all vote Democratic. The only question is how Democratic. From 1991 to 2007 the state elected Republican governors as a sort of check, but it has quit doing even that. Republicans are nearly extinct here.

If Republicans are going to accomplish anything in 2010, it will be threatening unpopular Democratic Governor Deval Patrick. He is vulnerable, but this state is so Democratic that betting on the Republicans is dangerous. This will not change for the foreseeable future.


President - 12 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 60%, George Bush (R) 33%
2004: John Kerry (D) 62%, Pres. George Bush (R) 37%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 62%, John McCain (R) 36%

Take a wild guess. It will make no difference if Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination.

Governor - Deval Patrick (D)

1998: Gov. Paul Cellucci (R) 51%, Scott Hershberger (D) 47%
2002: Mitt Romney (R) 50%, Shannon O’Brien (D) 45%
2006: Deval Patrick (D) 56%, Kerry Healey (R) 35%

Patrick has been in trouble from the start. He started out by spending exorbitant amounts of money on his inauguration and government perks. Ethical troubles and budget problems have also dogged him. His approval rating has sunk to 38%, which puts him in trouble even in this state.

Still, he may survive due to the nature of this state and weak Republican opposition. Kerry Healey is the Republican frontrunner, but her statewide appeal is questionable at best given her resounding defeat in 2006. Still, with Patrick’s performance and a different political climate, I wouldn’t count her out. Jim Ogonowski may also run as a Republican. His statewide appeal is uncertain, but he did run a shockingly close race in the Fifth District House special election in 2007. Right now, I’d rate Patrick as a slight favorite to win again based solely on how Democratic Massachusetts is, but he has a large amount of work to do.

Senior Senator - Edward Kennedy (D)

1994: Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) 58%, Mitt Romney (R) 41%
2000: Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) 73%, Jack E. Robinson III (R) 13%
2006: Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) 69%, Ken Chase (R) 31%

I’m not going to speculate on Kennedy’s health, but I will say that he will always win as long as he runs.

Junior Senator - John Kerry (D)

1996: Sen. John Kerry (D) 52%, William Weld (R) 45%
2002: Sen. John Kerry (D) unopposed
2008: Sen. John Kerry (D) 66%, Jeffrey Beatty (R) 31%

Kerry has schemed to get out of the Senate for most of this decade, but he remains there after another easy victory. He has yet to really distinguish himself as a Senator. Now the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, he should take a cue from his senior colleague and devote the second half of his career to becoming a great Senator.

House 1 - John Olver (D)

2004: Rep. John Olver (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Olver (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. John Olver (D) 73%, Nate Bech (R) 27%

The Pirates will win the World Series before Republicans win this seat.

House 2 - Richard Neal (D)

2004: Rep. Richard Neal (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Richard Neal (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Richard Neal (D) unopposed

George “The Animal” Steele will model for Victoria’s Secret before Republicans win this seat.

House 3 - Jim McGovern (D)

2004: Rep. Jim McGovern (D) 71%, Ron Crews (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Jim McGovern (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jim McGovern (D) unopposed

There will be Middle East peace before Republicans win this seat.

House 4 - Barney Frank (D)

2004: Rep. Barney Frank (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Barney Frank (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Barney Frank (D) 68%, Earl Sholley (R) 25%

Frank will shut up before Republicans win this seat.

House 5 - Niki Tsongas (D)

2004: Rep. Martin Meehan (D) 67%, Thomas Tierney (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Martin Meehan (D) unopposed
2007 special: Niki Tsongas (D) 51%, Jim Godowsky (R) 45%
2008: Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) unopposed

Nate Silver will say something nice about Sarah Palin before Republicans win this seat.

House 6 - John Tierney (D)

2004: Rep. John Tierney (D) 70%, Stephen O’Malley (R) 30%
2006: Rep. John Tierney (D) 70%, Richard Barton (R) 30%
2008: Rep. John Tierney (D) 70%, Richard Baker (R) 30%

Pat Robertson will name Hugh Hefner Man of the Year before Republicans win this seat.

House 7 - Edward Markey (D)

2004: Rep. Edward Markey (D) 74%, Kenneth G. Chase (R) 22%
2006: Rep. Edward Markey (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Edward Markey (D) 76%, John Cunningham (R) 24%

Michael Moore will endorse Jeb Bush before Republicans win this seat.

House 8 - Michael Capuano (D)

2004: Rep. Michael Capuano (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Michael Capuano (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Michael Capuano (D) unopposed

Men will walk on Pluto before Republicans win this seat.

House 9 - Stephen Lynch (D)

2004: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) 78%, Jack Robinson (R) 22%
2008: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) unopposed

Paris Hilton will join a convent before Republicans win this seat.

House 10 - Bill Delahunt (D)

2004: Rep. Bill Delahunt (D) 66%, Michael Jones (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Bill Delahunt (D) 64%, Jeffrey Beatty (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Bill Delahunt (D) unopposed

This Southeast Massachusetts seat is the only one in the state that I have to take seriously, though it would take a perfect storm for Republicans to win. It will never happen as long as Delahunt hangs around.