State of the Day - Michigan

The Great Lakes State has hit upon hard times. It has grown at a very slow pace for two generations, and things just seem to be getting worse. The demise of domestic automobile production has devastated the state’s industrial towns. Detroit has drowned in a cycle of crime and mismanagement. The automobile industry itself is now on the brink of total collapse. With its declining industry, pro-union policies, and high taxes, Michigan had a “one state recession” before the national recession. On the whole, the political balance here has been closer than most people would think. The state leans Democratic, with Detroit blacks and the United Auto Workers providing a strong backbone. But Republicans have maintained strength in some of the Detroit suburbs and in Outstate Michigan, keeping them in control of the State Senate and reasonably competitive overall.

2008 saw a major shift to the Democrats. The GOP lost two House seats, and John McCain pulled out of Michigan early despite polls showing the state competitive. The national economic collapse further buoyed the Democrats. Republicans are concentrating on winning the election to replace unpopular Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm and recouping their losses in the House. Democrats maintain the upper hand, but the situation in Michigan has grown so dire that Republicans have an opportunity to get a fair hearing.


President - 17 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 51%, George Bush (R) 46%
2004: John Kerry (D) 51%, Pres. George Bush (R) 48%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 41%

Until September, polls showed Barack Obama with at best only a narrow lead over John McCain. The Republican pulled out of Michigan very early, which seems in retrospect to have been a prudent move. He was not going to win this economically depressed state after the national economy started tanking.

Michigan is not nearly as Democratic as its national reputation. A Republican could certainly win it. However, the state is about three or four points more Democratic than the nation, meaning it is not the “tipping point” state that will make or break the election. If Republicans win Michigan, they have already won the White House.

Governor - Jennifer Granholm (D)

1998: Gov. John Engler (R) 62%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) 38%
2002: Jennifer Granholm (D) 51%, Dick Posthumus (R) 47%
2006: Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) 56%, Dick DeVos (R) 42%

Granholm cannot run for reelection. Her stock has sunk along with the Michigan economy, giving Republicans a real shot at taking this seat. For the Democrats, Flint Mayor Don Williamson is running, but several foibles make him a non-viable candidate in a general election. Lieutenant Governor John Cherry and House Speaker Andy Dillon would be better choices. Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel and George Perles may figure into the mix as well.

Republicans look likely to damage their chances with a contentious primary. Attorney General Mike Cox and Representative Pete Hoekstra are in the race. Secretary of State Terri Land and her predecessor, Candice Miller may figure into the equation as well. Any of the four would be a strong candidate.

This should be one of the more interesting and competitive gubernatorial races of the cycle. I’d give Democrats the slight edge at this point based on Michigan’s natural tilt, but Republicans do have a strong chance.

Senior Senator - Carl Levin (D)

1996: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 58%, Ronna Romney (R) 40%
2002: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 61%, Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%
2008: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 63%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 34%

Levin’s status as both a Senator and owner of the world’s worst comb over is secure.

Junior Senator - Debbie Stabenow (D)

1994: Spencer Abraham (R) 52%, Bob Carr (D) 43%
2000: Debbie Stabenow (D) 49%, Sen. Spencer Abraham (R) 48%
2006: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 57%, Mike Bouchard (R) 41%

Stabenow is not as invincible as Levin, but she has a significant advantage over any potential challengers.

House 1 - Bart Stupak (D)

2004: Rep. Bart Stupak (D) 66%, Don Hooper (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Bart Stupak (D) 69%, Don Hooper (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Bart Stupak (D) 65%, Tom Casperson (R) 33%

On paper, this Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula seat should be a tossup. In practice, Stupak has it locked down. He could have problems against a huge Republican wave, but it isn’t likely.

House 2 - Pete Hoekstra (R)

2004: Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) 69%, Kimon Kotos (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) 66%, Kimon Kotos (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) 62%, Fred Johnson (D) 35%

Hoekstra has already announced that he will run for Governor in 2010. This Western Michigan seat is mostly Republican, but not so much that Democrats can’t credibly hope to win it. Even so, Republican State Representative Bill Huizenga has already declared his candidacy and is the odds on favorite to replace Hoekstra.

House 3 - Vernon Ehlers (R)

2004: Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R) 67%, Peter Hickey (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R) 63%, James Rinck (D) 35%
2008: Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R) 61%, Henry Sanchez (D) 35%

This Grand Rapids based seat isn’t totally hopeless for Democrats, but Ehlers will not appear on anyone’s target list.

House 4 - Dave Camp (R)

2004: Rep. Dave Camp (R) 64%, Mike Huckleberry (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Dave Camp (R) 61%, Mike Huckleberry (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Dave Camp (R) 62%, Andrew Colcannon (D) 36%

This Republican leaning seat runs from the northern part of Lake Michigan to the western part of Saginaw. Camp may never be 100% safe, but after easily surviving the last two cycles it does not look like he is going anywhere.

House 5 - Dale Kildee (D)

2004: Rep. Dale Kildee (D) 67%, Myrah Kirkwood (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Dale Kildee (D) 73%, Eric Klammer (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Dale Kildee (D) 70%, Matt Sawicki (R) 27%

Michael Moore hails from this district and fits in perfectly with the area’s political leanings.

House 6 - Fred Upton (R)

2004: Rep. Fred Upton (R) 65%, Scott Elliott (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Fred Upton (R) 61%, Kim Clark (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Fred Upton (R) 59%, Don Cooney (D) 39%

As I predicted, much to the chagrin of one frequent commenter, Don Cooney got wiped out. This Southeast Michigan seat should be up for grabs, but Upton holds it easily. While he will be tough to beat, Democrats might want to get a more serious challenger up against him. He’s been allowed to coast so it might be worth it to find out how he’d react to a test. Some of his similarly situated colleagues haven’t done so well.

House 7 - Tim Walberg (R)

2004: Joe Schwarz (R) 58%, Sharon Renier (D) 36%
2006: Tim Walberg (R) 50%, Sharon Renier (D) 46%
2008: Mark Schauer (D) 49%, Rep. Tim Walberg (R) 47%

Republicans dumped the moderate Schwarz for ultraconservative Walberg in the 2006 primary, which turned out to be a major and obvious mistake in this middle of the road district that contains parts of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, and Lansing. Schauer could certainly hold on, but getting a plurality against a weak incumbent in a very Democratic year ensures that he will get a strong challenge. Expect one of the hardest fought races in the country, but Schauer starts out as a slight underdog against anybody except Walberg.

House 8 - Mike Rogers (R)

2004: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 61%, Robert Alexander (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 55%, Jim Marcinkowski (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 57%, Robert Alexander (D) 40%

This Lansing and suburban Detroit district is quite marginal, which makes it odd that Democrats couldn’t do any better than Robert Alexander in 2008. The nature of the district makes it a prime Democratic target, especially since they’ve already taken so many targets. Rogers will be favored in any event.

House 9 - Joe Knollenberg (R)

2004: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 58%, Steven Reifman (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 52%, Nancy Skinner (D) 46%
2008: Gary Peters (D) 52%, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (D) 43%

Knollenberg fell asleep, which was a dumb thing to do in this tossup Farmington Hills/Pontiac district. Like Schaeur, Peters will find himself a serious target in 2010. Unlike Schaeur, I give him the edge.

House 10 - Candice Miller (R)

2004: Rep. Candice Miller (R) 69%, Rob Casey (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Candice Miller (R) 66%, Robert Denison (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Candice Miller (R) 66%, Robert Denison (D) 31%

Democrats have been stealing Republican leaning districts like this one in the Thumb. That said, Miller is very well known and very well liked, which makes her invulnerable to such efforts.

House 11 - Thaddeus McCotter (R)

2004: Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) 57%, Phillip Truran (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) 54%, Tony Trupiano (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) 51%, Joseph Larkin (D) 45%

This Livonia based seat may be one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the nation, and it is completely under the radar. The district is a classic swing district, and McCotter has been getting worse and worse results against pathetic opponents. A mere 51% against a placeholder in 2008 is a giant red flag. Democrats are crazy if they don’t go after McCotter.

House 12 - Sander Levin (D)

2004: Rep. Sander Levin (D) 69%, Randell Shafer (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Sander Levin (D) 70%, Randell Shafer (R) 26%
2008: Rep. Sander Levin (D) 72%, Bert Copple (R) 24%

Sander Levin may be safer than his brother Carl.

House 13 - Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)

2004: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) 78%, Cynthia Cassell (R) 18%
2006: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) 74%, Edward Gubics (R) 19%

Kilpatrick will never lose to a Republican, but her criminal son Kwame might make her vulnerable to a primary challenge similar to the one that nearly beat her in 2008.

House 14 - John Conyers (D)

2004: Rep. John Conyers (D) 84%, Veronica Pedraza (R) 14%
2006: Rep. John Conyers (D) 85%, Chad Miles (R) 15%
2008: Rep. John Conyers (D) unopposed

This district might totally depopulate. It will never, ever give a Republican even 25 percent.

House 15 - John Dingell (D)

2004: Rep. John Dingell (D) 71%, Dawn Reamer (R) 27%
2006: Rep. John Dingell (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. John Dingell (D) 71%, John Lynch (R) 25%

After fifty-three years in the House and twenty-eight as the top Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee, Dingell had to be crushed to lose his chairmanship. To me, how he reacts will be one of the most interesting, and important in terms of legislation, developments of the next Congress. He has no problems in this district.