The North Star State, home of Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, has a long history of progressively oriented politics. Yet, in recent years, it has moderated somewhat. Republicans have had sustained success in recent years, notably in 2002 when it elected Governor Tim Pawlenty and Senator Norm Coleman. Minnesota has trended sharply Democratic in the past four years, matching the nation. Democrats easily elected Amy Klobuchar to the Senate in 2006, and may have defeated Senator Norm Coleman in 2008. They also picked up a House seat in 2006. Yet, Republicans have hardly vanished and did well to keep two House seats safe from strong challenges in 2008.
Minnesota nominates its candidates through conventions dominated by activists. This has led to a series of extremist nominees by both parties and a resulting tendency for large third party support that shows up to this day. This peaked in 1998 when Independent Jesse Ventura won the Governor’s Mansion on the backs of first-time and suburban voters. Ventura did not last, but his voters tend to make the difference in state elections. Republicans seized these voters in the early part of the decade, but the suburbs have shifted to the Democrats as they have nationally.
The number one goal for Democrats in 2010 will be to take the Governor’s Mansion for the first time since Rudy Perpich left in 1991. They have a good shot at doing so. Republicans want to play defense there and also defend potentially vulnerable Representatives Erik Paulsen and Michele Bachmann. Minnesota should tell us a good deal about how the national state of politics looks for 2010.
NOTE: Democrats in Minnesota are technically the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL). For simplicity’s sake I use the term Democrat and moniker “D”, but all such references in this article refer to Democratic-Farmer-Labor and “DFL”.
President - 10 Electoral Votes
2000: Al Gore (D) 48%, George Bush (R) 46%
2004: John Kerry (D) 51%, Pres. George Bush (R) 48%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 54%, John McCain (R) 44%
Minnesota has a reputation for being more Democratic than it actually is, based on the fact that its streak of nine straight votes for Democrats is the longest in the nation. In reality it is only about 2-3 points more Democratic than the national average. In a close election, like 2000 or 2004, that makes Minnesota a a major target, though one unlikely to prove decisive. In an election like 2008, the state isn’t competitive. In a mirror image of 2008, Republicans would probably win Minnesota. The state does tilt just a bit to the left, so it will lean toward Obama in 2012.
Governor - Tim Pawlenty (R)
1998: Jesse Ventura (D) 37%, Norm Coleman (R) 34%*
2002: Tim Pawlenty (R) 44%, Roger Moe (D) 36%
2006: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) 47%, Mike Hatch (D) 46%
*Ventura ran as a member of the Reform Party. Democratic nominee Skip Humphrey won 28%.
Pawlenty has established himself as a national Republican star, but he has never been widely popular in Minnesota. He has never won 50% of the vote and only won in 2006 due to his opponent’s terrible gaffe in the final week. However, he is probably in the best shape of his tenure, having inched his approval rating up to 53%.
Democrats have a multitude of candidates, but none of them yet stand out as a strong challenger. They include State Senator Tom Bakk, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, State Senator John Marty, Ole Savior, and State Representative Paul Thissen. As of now this race looks like a complete tossup. I give the slightest of edges to Pawlenty based on his solid popularity and the lack of name recognition among any of the Democrats.
Senior Senator - Norm Coleman (R)
1996: Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) 50%, Rudy Boschwitz (R) 41%
2002: Norm Coleman (R) 50%, Walter Mondale (D) 47%
2008: Al Franken (D) 42%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 42%
Fiasco does not even begin to describe this situation. The campaign itself was bad enough. Coleman sued Franken, who in turn accused Coleman of having a “sugar daddy”. This only served to encourage disgusted voters to turn to Independent candidate Dean Barkley. Now, they cannot even determine a winner before the new Congress takes office on Saturday. Franken clings to a 49 vote lead but the process does not look close to finished.
It looked like Coleman had eeked out a narrow win on Election Night. A recount put him up by about 190 votes. Then however, the situation entered the realm of the bizarre. Two separate times, officials in heavily Democratic Hennepin County mysteriously found ballots that had not entered the previous count. Absentee ballots emerged that may or may not have been improperly rejected. Nobody can quite figure out whether or not about 180 votes in Hennepin County (no wonder Republicans are suspicious) were double counted.
This whole thing reflects very poorly on Minnesota. Their election laws, with ID free same day voter registration, has enough holes in it to drive a H3 Hummer through. Then, they can’t seem to keep track of ballots. Every decision made by the Democratic Secretary of State and Supreme Court has favored Franken. The process is taking way too long. Nothing good is going on here.
Ballot challenges represented the worst aspect of the thing. I cannot fathom how many idiots cannot follow the simple instructions for filling out the ballot correctly (go to startribune.com to examine the ballots). Minnesota law requires that no matter how bizarre the ballot markings, the officials must try to divine the clear intent of the voter. Both candidates challenged quite a few of these ballots to the state canvassing board. Their decisions were not entirely consistent. They had problems in particular dealing with filled bubbles that had an X through them. Sometimes these votes counted, and sometimes they didn’t, but on the whole it favored Franken in a manner that lacked consistent standards. On top of being of dubious fairness, the board has opened itself to a lawsuit by Coleman, because that is exactly the sort of activity the U.S. Supreme Court seized on in Bush v. Gore.
This will have to end some time, and given his lead and that he has gotten every break, it will probably go for Franken. In 2000, despite the closeness I feel certain that in a “perfect” election where every vote counted as it was intended to be cast, Al Gore would have won (though under the law, I believe Bush won). I have no such certainty here. I have no idea who should win. The race is so close, and the election administration and counting so bad, that I simply have no confidence in any of it.
Junior Senator - Amy Klobuchar (D)
1994: Rod Grams (R) 49%, Ann Wynia (D) 44%
2000: Mark Dayton (D) 49%, Sen. Rod Grams (R) 43%
2006: Amy Klobuchar (D) 58%, Mark Kennedy (R) 38%
Klobuchar cannot be said to be safe after only two years, but she has certainly done everything right in order to bolster her standing.
House 1 - Tim Walz (D)
2004: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 60%, Leigh Pomeroy (D) 36%
2006: Tim Walz (D) 53%, Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Tim Walz (D) 63%, Brian Davis (R) 33%
Walz pounded a semi-serious challenger in 2008. It was impressive performance for this swing Rochester/Southern Minnesota district. Walz can continue to expect challenges, but he’ll be favored.
House 2 - John Kline (R)
2004: Rep. John Kline (R) 56%, Teresa Daly (D) 40%
2006: Rep. John Kline (R) 56%, Coleen Rowley (D) 40%
2008: Rep. John Kline (R) 57%, Steve Sarvi (D) 43%
Kline has gotten a good grip on this district south of the Twin Cities that could otherwise go either way. His survival of the Democratic wave gives him a serious advantage.
House 3 - Jim Ramstad (R)
2004: Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) 65%, Deborah Watts (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) 65%, Wendy Wilde (D) 35%
2008: Erik Paulsen (R) 49%, Ashwin Madia (D) 41%
Democrats helped him out by nominating the liberal outsider Madia, but Erik Paulsen did well to get a comfortable win in this swing seat in the Western Minneapolis suburbs. This is especially true in a year like 2008. This still looks like a total tossup for 2010, because Democrats could give themselves a real chance by nominating somebody better than Madia. I expect this again to be one of the hardest fought races in the nation, but I’ll give Paulsen the small edge based on his good win in a terrible Republican year.
House 4 - Betty McCollum (D)
2004: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 57%, Patrice Bataglia (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 70%, Obi Sium (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Betty McCollum (D) 68%, Ed Matthews (R) 31%
This is a completely safe Democratic seat.
House 5 - Keith Ellison (D)
2004: Rep. Martin Olav Sabo (D) 70%, Daniel Nielsen Mathias (R) 24%
2006: Keith Ellison (D) 56%, Alan Fine (R) 21%
2008: Rep. Keith Ellison (D) 71%, Barb White (R) 22%
This is one of the most Democratic districts in the nation. Ellison can take pleasure in the defeat of Virginia’s Virgil Goode, who went apoplectic when he took the oath of office on a Koran.
House 6 - Michele Bachmann (R)
2004: Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) 54%, Patty Wetterling (D) 46%
2006: Michele Bachmann (R) 50%, Patty Wetterling (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 46%, Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 43%
Bachmann got herself into needless trouble in this Republican leaning St. Cloud/suburban Twin Cities district by making idiotic comments on national television two weeks before the election. She was lucky her opponent was ineffective and needed massive DCCC help just to get on the air. Bachmann probably guaranteed herself a tough race in 2010, but I give her the edge as the furor over her comments will have receded by then. She just needs to watch her mouth.
House 7 - Collin Peterson (D)
2004: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 66%, David Sturrock (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 70%, Michael Barrett (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 72%, Glenn Menze (R) 28%
This Northwest Minnesota seat leans Republican, but the offbeat Peterson is wildly popular. It will take a series of unlikely events to drive voters away from him. He does need to quit singing in public, however, as he is not very good.
House 8 - James Oberstar (D)
2004: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 65%, Mark Groettum (R) 34%
2006: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 64%, Rod Grams (R) 34%
2008: Rep. James Oberstar (D) 68%, Michael Cummins (R) 32%
The Democratic leaning Duluth based seat is safe for Oberstar.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
State of the Day - Minnesota
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8 comments:
What a lame analysis. You really should learn about the races you're writing about before going public with your ignorance. Franken didn't accuse Coleman of having a "sugar daddie." Not even close. And Bachmann won because there was a moron running as an independent who picked up 10% of the vote because his name was Anderson and no one knew that his own party refused to endorse him, even though he was identified as the Independence Party candidate on the ballot. The internets are full of ignoramuses and their opinions. We don't need another one.
Gee, and I thought that the election of Barack Obama was going to change the tone of our politics. I might ask why you read if you think I'm an ignoramus, but since you did visit the site I'll respond.
I quoted Franken directly from a November 2 debate. The following is from Patrick Condon's account of the debate in the November 3 LA Times. I think aptly summarizes the depths to which this race scraped.
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"You have an ad that's defaming my wife," Coleman said. "I think there's a line in this business. You can take any shot you want at the candidate. Mr. Franken, rather than rejecting it, is promoting it."
Franken replied that Coleman must answer questions about the allegations -- and rejected the idea that discussion of it is an attack on Laurie Coleman. "This is not about Norm Coleman's wife," Franken said. "This is about Sen. Coleman's sugar daddy."
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As for Bachmann, large amounts of votes for the Independence Party are simply a fact of life in Minnesota. Looking through the results, plurality winners are quite common. You cannot simply assume that the third party candidate took votes solely away from Tinklenberg. Before Bachmann opened her mouth, Tinklenberg was generally thought to have little thought of winning. The DCCC was on constantly for him, even though he had very little money himself. He had advantages and he still lost. This suggests he was a weak candidate. Combined with the Republican lean of the district, you cannot the third guy caused Bachmann's win by himself.
BS Meter also forgets that MN-6 is generally a Republican district. According to Swing State Project's initial calculations, McCain won the district 53-45. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry 57-42 in the district. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore 52-42 in the district.
It's disingenuous to try to claim that Bachmann only won because there was a "moron running as an independent who picked up 10% of the vote." In actuality, Bachmann almost certainly won because (a) she is a Republican and (b) the district is generally a Republican one. Surely, Bachmnann's comments hurt her performance, but not enough to overwhelm the partisan leaning of the district. If anything, many Republican voters probably threw their vote to Anderson as a "protest" vote - just as many Obama voters refused to vote for Al Franken and gave support to the Independence Party candidate instead.
As AR noted, if not for Bachmann's unfortunate comments only a few weeks before the election, Tinklenberg would have probably had no shot at all.
As someone who was actually on the ground for the entire Coleman/Franken recount and subsequent legal action and canvass board meetings, I have to say that your description of the Senate race is blatantly false, in addition to clearly slanted towards favoring Coleman.
First, the "Democratic Secretary of State" has made no decision about the way to count ballots or mechanics of the recount without his 5-member panel, including one Dem, two Repubs, one independent, and himself.
Can you name an election law, besides same-day registration without ID, that leaves "enough holes to drive a H3 Hummer through"? Do you know anything about election law more than Republican talking points about the horrors of not requiring an ID? Or is that it?
Since I was at the Nov. 2 debate, I feel confident in pointing out that Al Franken questioned Norm Coleman's "political Sugar Daddy." I guess I'm not surprised that you provided no background on this, but perhaps it would behoove you and your audience to know that the FBI has launched a probe into the merits of a sitting Senator's wife possibly getting money funneled from a wealthy Texan. You might see it as another one of Franken's smears, but the Federal Bureau of Investigation doesn't.
I'm not even going to go into the voter intent questions on the ballot since I would have to refer to election law which is clearly not your strong suit. Suffice it to say that protocols were established and if you actually watched all the canvassing board proceedings, you would see that two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Independent were pretty balanced in their approach.
I appreciate the work you put into making this almanac of sorts, being involved in politics myself, but focus instead on races in your home state or races that you followed closely.
With regards to the "sugar daddy" comments, again, I quoted Franken directly. Yes, Franken was referring to an alleged political benefactor. My main point was actually that this race reached extremely low depths or accusations even for politics (see Coleman's frivolous lawsuit), and used Franken's use of the term as an illustration of the term. I somehow figured that nobody would actually infer that I thought Franken accused Coleman of performing sexual favors for money, but apparently I was wrong.
With regards to the recount, my analyis of the ballots showed inconsistencies, notably of the bubble with X's that I mentioned. I'm not alone...Bloomberg News wrote an article on this subject and agreed with my concerns.
As for Minnesota election law holes, how long do you have? For starters, the registration has no way to catch somebody registered at an old address who then same day registers at a new address. The checks on people "assisting" mentally handicapped voters, are nonexistent. Check out the busload of mentally handicapped voters and assistants going precinct to precinct in Ramsey County on Election Day.
Same day voter registration is inherently vulnerable to manipulation. The big problem is that no verification of the registration can occur. Allowing someone to "prove" residence with another person vouching for them or with a cell phone bill just adds to the problem. I don't necessarily believe in the "horrors" of voting without ID, but I do think something stronger than Minnesota's system is necessary if a state chooses to have same day registration. A noncitizen could easily vote even if all he had was a cell phone bill.
I didn't actually believe so strongly in that until I actually worked in Minnesota doing election law before and right after the election. Yes, that's right, I worked on the legal aspects of this race. Just because you don't agree with me does not mean I don't know what I'm talking about.
Having said that, let me reiterate my main point. We'll never know who should have won this race. That is quite sad, especially since this process of counting hasn't really helped.
A quiet factor that may affect the DFL side of the governor race is still the Republican National Convention. Some of the most activist Democrats are still angry about the loss of civil liberties in the early September siege of St Paul. For some reason, they just don't like pepper spray, mass arrests, storm troopers or Bob Fletcher that much. Gaertner prolongs the agony by not droppying the phony charges. Chris Coleman prolongs it by his robotic praise of the policing job done. This means that every single fundraiser or public event that Gaertner has is going to draw protesters. Same with Chris Coleman (although he hasn't filed or declared yet for governor). Most people may not remember or even know about the many innocents who were arrested or pepper-sprayed. But the ongoing presence of protesters will leave a bad taste in the mouths of lukewarm supporters. People WILL remember that unpleasant feeling when they think about writing campaign checks or voting.
Hi, I read your work throughout the 2008 campaign and found your work useful as a counter balance to other pundits.
As a Minnesota election judge, I do have a correction. It is not same day with no I.D. You have to have a valid driver's license or other government issued picture id or a license with an old address but a utility bill with your name at the new address. The only exception is vouching. A neighbor, who takes an oath and signs a list as having taken one, can vouch for your residence.
I was referring to vouching. Thanks for the clarification.
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