State of the Race

We're starting to see retirements and developments that will shape the 2010 race. So far, there is not much change in the outlook. However, I cannot help but think that Republicans desperately need some kind of good news, somewhere, if only to improve morale.

I also want to make one additional note of explanation. At this early point I err on the conservative side, meaning that if there is a doubt I rate a race on the most competitive possible level.

President

In response to a comment last week, I continue to believe that Obama will do relatively better in the South and relatively worse in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains than he did in 2008. I mainly believe this because I think that the South, with a younger, more flexible work force less reliant on declining industries, will continue to perform relatively better economically than the Rust Belt. As of right now, I think economic issues will continue to dominate the discussion, putting the social issues that hurt Democrats in the South on the back burner. If the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney, who I expect to underperform in the South, this theory makes even more sense. Regardless of who Republicans nominate, it won't be anybody more hostile to midwestern agricultural society as John McCain. I think the final results will reflect that.

Obama still maintains a clear lead, with a range of Electoral Votes between 292 and 405. Expect him to expand this lead when he takes office as his favorable ratings should be through the roof.


Tier I (Tossup)

Obama (62)

Arizona(+2)
Colorado
Missouri(-1)
Ohio(-2)
Virginia

Romney (61)

Arkansas
Georgia(+1)
Louisiana(-1)
North Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (97)

Florida(+2)
Iowa(-1)
Minnesota(-1)
Nevada(+1)
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon(+1)
Pennsylvania(-1)
Wisconsin

Romney (80)

Alabama
Indiana
Kentucky
Mississippi
South Carolina
Texas(+4)

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (87)

California
Maine
Michigan(-1)
Washington(+1)

Romney (19)

Kansas
Montana
Oklahoma
South Dakota

Tier IV (Safe)

Obama (108)

Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois(-1)
Maryland
Massachusetts(-1)
New Jersey(-1)
New York(-2)
Rhode Island
Vermont

Romney (24)

Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
North Dakota
Utah(+1)
Wyoming

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
Obama 354 (pick up AZ, MO)
Romney 184 (pick up IN, NC)

Popular Vote
Obama 53.9%
Romney 46.1%

Governors

There are no changes in Governor's races this week. Most states will be beginning legislative sessions in January, many of them dealing with budget shortfalls. How those turn out will go a long way to determining who runs and how the field plays out.

Democrats currently lead 29-21 in total Governors. Democrats lead 7-5 in races not up in 2009 or 2010.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Jodi Rell)
Massachusetts (Deval Patrick)
New Mexico (Bill Richardson retiring)
Oregon (Ted Kulongoski retiring)
Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell retiring)

Republican (9)

Arizona (Janet Napolitano retiring)
Colorado (Bill Ritter)
Florida (Charlie Crist)
Iowa (Chet Culver)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty)
Tennessee (Phil Bredesen retiring)
Texas (Rick Perry)
Virginia (Tim Kaine retiring)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (4)

California (Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring)
Maine (John Baldacci retiring)
Michigan (Jennifer Granholm retiring)
Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Republican (1)

Georgia (Sonny Perdue retiring)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Mike Beebe)
Hawaii (Linda Lingle retiring)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)
New York (David Paterson)

Republican (5)

Alabama (Bob Riley retiring)
New Jersey (Jon Corzine)
Ohio (Ted Strickland)
South Carolina (Mark Sanford retiring)
Wisconsin (James Doyle)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (2)

Nevada (Jim Gibbons)
Rhode Island (Donald Carcieri retiring)

Republican (8)

Alaska (Sarah Palin)
Idaho (Butch Otter)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich)
Kansas (Kathleen Sebelius retiring)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman)
Oklahoma (Brad Henry retiring)
South Dakota (Mike Rounds retiring)
Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal retiring)

Current Outlook
Republicans 28 (pick up AZ, CO, IL, IA, KS, MD, NJ, OH, OK, TN, VA, WI, WY)
Democrats 22 (pick up CA, CT, HI, NV, RI, VT)

Senate

The big news this week came from Colorado, where Senator Ken Salazar will, presuming confirmation, leave the Senate to become Secretary of the Interior. Colorado Governor Bill Ritter will appoint a replacement to fill out his term, which expires after the 2010 election. The news hurts Democrats in Colorado. Salazar was a good fit for the state and was quite popular. Democrats are still in good shape to hold the seat, especially since they will have a two year incumbent. Polls right now show any Democrat leading Republican Bill Owens, who was popular when he left the Governor's Mansion. Polls right now are meaningless however, and accounting for the anticipated Democratic backlash, Owens gives Republicans a slight edge. Without knowing the Democratic incumbent, it's a tossup, but I'll give it to Republicans for now.

In Kansas, Sam Brownback announced his retirement. Considering he had already announced he wasn't running again, I'm not sure what the hullaballoo was about. In any event, we had already accounted for that open seat, but still don't think Republicans have any worries there. We now anticipate anywhere between a three seat Democratic gain and a four seat Republican gain in 2008, which the current most likely scenario being a push.

The Minnesota mess continues, and thanks to the Minnesota Supreme Court will almost certainly last beyond January 3. Franken moved into the lead on Friday, but those covering the count seem to think the lead won't last. I am now totally confused. I thought Coleman basically had it, but then Hennepin County discovered new ballots which threw that equation out of whack. The idiots who can't fill in a bubble have now had their "clear intent" counted. Now, there are issues over absentee ballots that may or may not have been improperly rejected and other ballots that may or may not have been counted twice. After that, there may be a lawsuit over the inconsistent standards used in the hand recounts and challenges. Take a look at the ballots online at startribune.com and notice the different ways in which circles with X's through them are dealt with, if you want to see what I mean. I have no confidence that they can actually determine who really won.

I'll keep the seat with Coleman for now because that is the way I previously had it. With this, Democrats lead 43-23 in seats not up for election in 2010.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
Florida (Mel Martinez retiring)
Indiana (Evan Bayh)
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Republican (3)

Colorado (Ken Salazar retiring)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (3)

Nevada (Harry Reid)
Washington (Patty Murray)
Wisconsin (Russell Feingold)

Republican (5)

Kentucky (Jim Bunning)
Missouri (Christopher "Kit" Bond)
North Carolina (Richard Burr)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
South Dakota (John Thune)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (3)

California (Barbara Boxer)
Illinois (FOR $ALE)
Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Republican (5)

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)
Ohio (George Voinovich)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Christopher Dodd)
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Charles Schumer)
Vermont (Patrick Leahy)

Republican (6)

Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Arizona (John McCain)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
Iowa (Charles Grassley)
Kansas (Sam Brownback retiring)
Utah (Robert Bennett)

Current Outlook
Democrats 58 (pick up FL)
Republicans 42 (pick up CO)

House

Rep. Pete Hoekstra announced that he will give up his MI-2 seat to run for Governor. This is a mostly Republican seat that the party should have little problem retaining. However, Democrats have picked up more Republican districts in the last couple of cycles. With Hoekstra's announcement we move this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, to account for the chance that the Republican struggles combine with a local meltdown to produce a problem.

California Rep. Xavier Becerra changed his mind, electing to stay in the House rather than become U.S. Trade Representative. Another California Representative, Hilda Solis, will leave the House to become Secretary of Labor assuming she wins confirmation. Both of these seats are heavily Democratic, so there is no change on this board.

In VA-5, Rep. Virgil Goode finally conceded to Tom Perriello, closing all House races for 2008. The Democrats finished with a 21 seat pickup, and now have a 257-178 majority.

We continue to have an 18 seat gain for Republicans. At this early date, the range of outcomes is quite wide, from an 11 seat Democratic pickup to a 46 seat GOP gain. Republicans will need 40 seats to take the majority.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (29)

AZ-1 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CO-3 (John Salazar)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
IL-8 (Melissa Bean)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth)
IN-9 (Baron Hill)
KS-3 (Dennis Moore)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MO-4 (Ike Skelton)
NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NJ-3 (John Adler)
NM-2 (Harry Teague)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-1 (Steven Dreihaus)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
SC-5 (John Spratt)
TN-4 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (28)

AL-5 (Parker Griffith)
AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Betsy Markey)
DE-AL (Michael Castle)
FL-8 (Alan Grayson)
GA-8 (Jim Marshall)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MI-7 (Mark Schauer)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
MS-1 (Travis Childers)
NV-3 (Dina Titus)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
NY-29 (Eric Massa)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Christopher Carney)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-2 (Glenn Nye)
VA-5 (Tom Perriello)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (24)

CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
FL-2 (Allen Boyd)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MS-4 (Gene Taylor)
NH-2 (Paul Hodes)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand)
NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
OH-6 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-8 (Patrick Murphy)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
TX-27 (Solomon Ortiz)

Republican (34)

AL-2 (Bobby Bright)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
AZ-3 (John Shadegg)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
MD-1 (Frank Kratovil)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MO-9 (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NV-2 (Dean Heller)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NY-26 (Christopher Lee)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SC-1 (Henry Brown)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (22)

CT-5 (Chris Murphy)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
LA-2 (Anh Cao)
MI-1 (Bart Stupak)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
NM-3 (Ben Lujan)
NC-2 (Bob Etheridge)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
PA-7 (Joe Sestak)
PA-12 (John Murtha)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-3 (Brian Baird)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (David Obey)

Republican (35)

AK-AL (Don Young)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
FL-5 (Ginny Brown-Waite)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-12 (Adam Putnam)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
ID-1 (Walt Minnick)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IA-5 (Steve King)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
MI-2 (Pete Hoekstra retiring)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-23 (John McHugh)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
PA-5 (G.T. Thompson)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (164)

Republican (99)

Current Outlook-
Democrats 239 (pick up LA-2)
Republicans 196 (pick up AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-5, GA-5, ID-1, MD-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NY-29, ND-AL, OH-15, PA-10, TX-17, UT-2, VA-2, VA-5