State of the Race

I don't have much commentary this week. It was obviously a slow week, and like most Americans I've taken a bit of time off from the grind so I don't have many new thoughts to add. This week, may bore you regular readers, but for new readers, well, it's new to you, right?

President

We're now three weeks until the inauguration. This is going to be a very big deal. I think all Americans can appreciate the magnitude of the occasion.

Obama still maintains a clear lead, with a range of Electoral Votes between 292 and 405. Expect him to expand this lead when he takes office as his favorable ratings should be through the roof.


Tier I (Tossup)

Obama (62)

Arizona(+2)
Colorado
Missouri(-1)
Ohio(-2)
Virginia

Romney (61)

Arkansas
Georgia(+1)
Louisiana(-1)
North Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (97)

Florida(+2)
Iowa(-1)
Minnesota(-1)
Nevada(+1)
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon(+1)
Pennsylvania(-1)
Wisconsin

Romney (80)

Alabama
Indiana
Kentucky
Mississippi
South Carolina
Texas(+4)

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (87)

California
Maine
Michigan(-1)
Washington(+1)

Romney (19)

Kansas
Montana
Oklahoma
South Dakota

Tier IV (Safe)

Obama (108)

Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois(-1)
Maryland
Massachusetts(-1)
New Jersey(-1)
New York(-2)
Rhode Island
Vermont

Romney (24)

Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
North Dakota
Utah(+1)
Wyoming

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
Obama 354 (pick up AZ, MO)
Romney 184 (pick up IN, NC)

Popular Vote
Obama 53.9%
Romney 46.1%

Governors

One look at the fiscal outlook in most states should convince you that this is not a good time to be a Governor. We continue to (loosely) project Republicans gaining a majority of governorships with a seven seat pickup. That could go as high as 12 seats, but Democrats could also net a couple of seats. The range of possibilities is wide.

Democrats currently lead 29-21 in total Governors. Democrats lead 7-5 in races not up in 2009 or 2010.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Jodi Rell)
Massachusetts (Deval Patrick)
New Mexico (Bill Richardson retiring)
Oregon (Ted Kulongoski retiring)
Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell retiring)

Republican (9)

Arizona (Janet Napolitano retiring)
Colorado (Bill Ritter)
Florida (Charlie Crist)
Iowa (Chet Culver)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty)
Tennessee (Phil Bredesen retiring)
Texas (Rick Perry)
Virginia (Tim Kaine retiring)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (4)

California (Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring)
Maine (John Baldacci retiring)
Michigan (Jennifer Granholm retiring)
Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Republican (1)

Georgia (Sonny Perdue retiring)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Mike Beebe)
Hawaii (Linda Lingle retiring)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)
New York (David Paterson)

Republican (5)

Alabama (Bob Riley retiring)
New Jersey (Jon Corzine)
Ohio (Ted Strickland)
South Carolina (Mark Sanford retiring)
Wisconsin (James Doyle)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (2)

Nevada (Jim Gibbons)
Rhode Island (Donald Carcieri retiring)

Republican (8)

Alaska (Sarah Palin)
Idaho (Butch Otter)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich)
Kansas (Kathleen Sebelius retiring)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman)
Oklahoma (Brad Henry retiring)
South Dakota (Mike Rounds retiring)
Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal retiring)

Current Outlook
Republicans 28 (pick up AZ, CO, IL, IA, KS, MD, NJ, OH, OK, TN, VA, WI, WY)
Democrats 22 (pick up CA, CT, HI, NV, RI, VT)

Senate

The only news of note this week is that it appears more likely that Jeb Bush will run for the open Senate seat in Florida. This would be a huge boon to the Republicans and would probably flip the projection if and when it becomes official. We now anticipate anywhere between a three seat Democratic gain and a four seat Republican gain in 2008, which the current most likely scenario being a push.

I'll write more about the Minnesota fiasco on Wednesday, but it appears as if neither man will be able to take office on January 3. I'll award the seat to Franken for now, since he appears to be ahead at the moment. With this, Democrats lead 44-22 in seats not up for election in 2010.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
Florida (Mel Martinez retiring)
Indiana (Evan Bayh)
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Republican (3)

Colorado (Ken Salazar retiring)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (3)

Nevada (Harry Reid)
Washington (Patty Murray)
Wisconsin (Russell Feingold)

Republican (5)

Kentucky (Jim Bunning)
Missouri (Christopher "Kit" Bond)
North Carolina (Richard Burr)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
South Dakota (John Thune)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (3)

California (Barbara Boxer)
Illinois (FOR $ALE)
Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Republican (5)

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)
Ohio (George Voinovich)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Christopher Dodd)
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Charles Schumer)
Vermont (Patrick Leahy)

Republican (6)

Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Arizona (John McCain)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
Iowa (Charles Grassley)
Kansas (Sam Brownback retiring)
Utah (Robert Bennett)

Current Outlook
Democrats 59 (pick up FL)
Republicans 41 (pick up CO)

House

I'd just like to say that if Republicans lose more seats in 2010, I think you can kiss John Boehner goodbye. New NRCC Chair Pete Sessions needs to focus on fundraising and candidate recruitment. The party has struggled badly in this regard the last two cycles, which has helped cost them seats they shouldn't have lost.

We continue to have an 18 seat gain for Republicans. At this early date, the range of outcomes is quite wide, from an 11 seat Democratic pickup to a 46 seat GOP gain. Republicans will need 40 seats to take the majority.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (29)

AZ-1 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CO-3 (John Salazar)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
IL-8 (Melissa Bean)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth)
IN-9 (Baron Hill)
KS-3 (Dennis Moore)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MO-4 (Ike Skelton)
NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NJ-3 (John Adler)
NM-2 (Harry Teague)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-1 (Steven Dreihaus)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
SC-5 (John Spratt)
TN-4 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (28)

AL-5 (Parker Griffith)
AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Betsy Markey)
DE-AL (Michael Castle)
FL-8 (Alan Grayson)
GA-8 (Jim Marshall)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MI-7 (Mark Schauer)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
MS-1 (Travis Childers)
NV-3 (Dina Titus)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
NY-29 (Eric Massa)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Christopher Carney)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-2 (Glenn Nye)
VA-5 (Tom Perriello)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (24)

CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
FL-2 (Allen Boyd)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MS-4 (Gene Taylor)
NH-2 (Paul Hodes)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand)
NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
OH-6 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-8 (Patrick Murphy)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
TX-27 (Solomon Ortiz)

Republican (34)

AL-2 (Bobby Bright)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
AZ-3 (John Shadegg)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
MD-1 (Frank Kratovil)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MO-9 (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NV-2 (Dean Heller)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NY-26 (Christopher Lee)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SC-1 (Henry Brown)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (22)

CT-5 (Chris Murphy)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
LA-2 (Anh Cao)
MI-1 (Bart Stupak)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
NM-3 (Ben Lujan)
NC-2 (Bob Etheridge)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
PA-7 (Joe Sestak)
PA-12 (John Murtha)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-3 (Brian Baird)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (David Obey)

Republican (35)

AK-AL (Don Young)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
FL-5 (Ginny Brown-Waite)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-12 (Adam Putnam)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
ID-1 (Walt Minnick)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IA-5 (Steve King)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
MI-2 (Pete Hoekstra retiring)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-23 (John McHugh)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
PA-5 (G.T. Thompson)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (164)

Republican (99)

Current Outlook-
Democrats 239 (pick up LA-2)
Republicans 196 (pick up AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-5, GA-5, ID-1, MD-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NY-29, ND-AL, OH-15, PA-10, TX-17, UT-2, VA-2, VA-5