The Show Me State has long been considered a sort of national bellwether. In many ways it is a microcosm of the nation. It has two intensely Democratic cities on its Eastern and Western sides, with the less densely populated middle being more conservative and Republican. It continues to reflect national trends on the state level, voting Democratic for Governor and Senator when Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. It shifted to elect a Republican Senator in 2002 and Governor in 2004, but those offices went back to the Democrats in the big Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. It has become a Republican state for President, however.
With the state’s House seats looking secure, the big race here for 2010 will involve Kit Bond’s Senate seat. The incumbent has a forty year career in public office, but has never won a huge victory. He’ll be favored, but if Democrats keep up their surge they could threaten him.
President - 11 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 47%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 53%, John Kerry (D) 46%
2008: John McCain (R) 49%, Barack Obama (D) 49%
Missouri finally lost its status as a bellwether in 2008. While it had voted for every winner since 1956, it had voted a few points more Republican than the nation in recent elections. It voted even more Republican, relatively speaking, in 2008, allowing John McCain to win by 4,903 votes while losing decisively nationally. This new Missouri must be in the GOP column for the party to win. It is certainly within Barack Obama’s power to win the state in 2012, but it will be nothing more than icing.
Governor - Matt Blunt (R)
2000: Bob Holden (D) 49%, Jim Talent (R) 48%
2004: Matt Blunt (R) 51%, Claire McCaskill (D) 48%
2008: Jay Nixon (D) 58%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 40%
Nixon’s win seemed inevitable. He had a united party, a nasty Republican primary, an unpopular outgoing Republican Govenror, and a big Democratic year. This resulted in a big win that gets Nixon off to an excellent start when he becomes the Governor in ten days.
Senior Senator - Christopher “Kit” Bond (R)
1992: Sen. Christopher “Kit” Bond (R) 52%, Geri Rothman-Serot (D) 45%
1998: Sen. Christopher “Kit” Bond (R) 53%, Jay Nixon (D) 44%
2004: Sen. Christopher “Kit” Bond (R) 56%, Nancy Farmer (D) 43%
Bond has never won an overwhelming victory. He does consistently command majorities and remains formidable, but he may be vulnerable to the shift towards the Democrats. Polling shows him with leads over all potential opponents, but with numbers under 50%. This will be a race, though it does lead toward Bond.
UPDATE (1/08/09): This analysis was written before Sen. Kit Bond announced his retirement. Look for our latest analysis of this race in next week's State of the Race column.
Junior Senator - Claire McCaskill (D)
1994: John Ashcroft (R) 60%, Alan Wheat (D) 36%
2000: Mel Carnahan (D) 50%, Sen. John Ashcroft (R) 48%
2002 special: Jim Talent (R) 50%, Sen. Jean Carnahan (D) 49%
2006: Claire McCaskill (D) 50%, Sen. Jim Talent (R) 47%
McCaskill is considered a rising star in the Democratic Party. Of course, the same thing was about Jim Talent a few years ago. McCaskill is formidable, but how formidable will depend on the state of the Democratic Party in 2012.
House 1 - William Lacy Clay (D)
2004: Rep. William Lacy Clay (D) 75%, Leslie Farr (R) 23%
2006: Rep. William Lacy Clay (D) 73%, Mark Byrne (R) 25%
2008: Rep. William Lacy Clay (D) unopposed
A Republican victory here is about as likely as Duke winning the national championship in football.
House 2 - Todd Akin (R)
2004: Rep. Todd Akin (R) 65%, George Weber (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Todd Akin (R) 61%, George Weber (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Todd Akin (R) 62%, Bill Haas (D) 35%
If this suburban St. Louis seat came open in the right year, it could be worth mentioning. Akin, however, is safe in this mostly Republican district.
House 3 - Russ Carnahan (D)
2004: Russ Carnahan (D) 53%, Bill Federer (R) 45%
2006: Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) 66%, David Bertelsen (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) 66%, Chris Sander (R) 30%
This St. Louis area seat is the mirror image of the Second District. Carnahan, son of a Governor and Senator and brother of the Secretary of State, will not leave until he runs for higher office.
House 4 - Ike Skelton (D)
2004: Rep. Ike Skelton (D) 66%, Jim Noland (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Ike Skelton (D) 68%, Jim Noland (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Ike Skelton (D) 66%, Jeff Parnell (R) 34%
This district votes Republican for everything except the entrenched, old time Democrat Skelton. It’s been so long since he had even a hint of a race it’s unclear how he would react. If there is a backlash against Obama, Skelton could have a hard time against a good opponent. I suspect he could actually lose. I tend to doubt Republicans will actually try, however.
House 5 - Emanuel Cleaver (D)
2004: Emanuel Cleaver (D) 55%, Jeanne Patterson (R) 42%
2006: Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) 64%, Jacob Turk (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) 64%, Jacob Turk (R) 36%
Republican can forget and have forgotten about this district.
House 6 - Sam Graves (R)
2004: Rep. Sam Graves (R) 64%, Charlie Bloomfield (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Sam Graves (R) 62%, Sara Jo Shettles (D) 36%
2008: Rep. Sam Graves (R) 59%, Kay Barnes (D) 37%
Graves turned a very impressive performance against strong competition in this Kansas City/St. Joseph/Northwest Missouri district. The district leans Republican, but not enough to declare Graves permanently safe. Even so, after 2008 it’s unlikely that he will lose.
House 7 - Roy Blunt (R)
2004: Rep. Roy Blunt (R) 70%, Jim Newberry (D) 28%
2006: Rep. Roy Blunt (R) 67%, Jack Truman (D) 30%
2008: Rep. Roy Blunt (R) 68%, Richard Monroe (D) 28%
Blunt’s career in Washington has gone in the toilet, but he’ll never have problems here.
House 8 - Jo Ann Emerson (R)
2004: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) 72%, Dean Henderson (D) 27%
2006: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) 72%, Veronica Hambacker (D) 26%
2008: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) 71%, Joe Allen (D) 26%
Ho hum.
House 9 - Kenny Hulshof (R)
2004: Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) 65%, Linda Jacobsen (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) 61%, Duane Burghard (D) 36%
2008: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) 50%, Judy Baker (D) 48%
This Columbia/Jefferson City/Northeast Missouri seat might not be impossible for Democrats, but it is extremely difficult. 2008 was probably the best chance they’ll ever have. Luetkemeyer is a solid favorite for 2010.
Friday, January 2, 2009
State of the Day - Missouri
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4 comments:
Wouldn't say solid. Luetkemeyer had to infuse over a million dollars of his own money in his race. If Baker decides to run again, she will have fund raising on her side. I doubt Blaine is going to lay down a mil every 2 years. Plus Obama will not be running and most of the anti-Obama crowd won't be too fired up. Sabato and all the pundits said that Baker wouldn't come close, they were wrong. Saying Luetkemeyer is a sold favorite plays to the same tired conventional wisdom.
Well, I simply have to disagree, though I did not write off Baker in 2008 as Sabato did.
1. Leutkemeyer has two years to get name recognition.
2. Fundraising will be much easier for an incumbent.
3. The enviroment probably won't be worse for the Republicans.
4. The pro-Obama voters won't be out in the same strength either, and I would expect that to outweigh any dimunition among Obamaphobes.
I am betting that Ike Skelton retires in 2012 and his district is the one eliminated in redistricting with parts going to MO-5, MO-06, MO-07, MO-08, and MO-09. Since control of redistricting will be split here, I think this will be a result that everyone will be happy with.
I agree with you. I am consciously avoiding redistricting discussions in these columns, but your point is no less valid. Skelton's district has lost population and would be easy to eliminate, too.
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